Still craving more basketball after March Madness? The NBA has you covered. Monday picks up where the weekend’s action left off and features a 10-game spread headlined by LeBron James and the red-hot Lakers traveling to Detroit to square off against the Pistons. Tipoff is set for 7:00 pm ET. In Peacock’s later slate, the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks do business in the Big D at 9:30 pm ET.
You can find our NBA picks for all of today’s matchups along with EVERY GAME this season. But for now, here are our expert NBA best bets for each of today’s 10 games on Monday, March 23.
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Thunder vs 76ers NBA best bet: 76ers +15.5 (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is driven by the point spread and total relationship. With the number sitting this high and the total near 222.5, the math favors the underdog. Lower totals mean fewer possessions, which naturally compresses scoring margins and makes it harder for favorites to pull away.
Oklahoma City can control the game and still fall short of covering such a large spread. The Thunder’s goal is just to win — not make an exclamation point. The Sixers are the sharp side because when a big number meets a modest total, the underdog becomes far more attractive. Let’s take the points.
Read our full Thunder vs 76ers prediction
Spurs vs Heat NBA best bet: Spurs -5 (-110)
Odds available at Dabble Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This a spot where we the fade narrative doesn’t actually work. The trend and the matchup both support San Antonio. The Spurs are 53-18 SU, just three games behind Oklahoma City, and have gone 21-2 SU since February 1. They are also 24-11 SU on the road, which matters because it is an elite traveling team laying a manageable number against a club that has gone 1-4 SU since a seven-game winning streak ended.
San Antonio knows exactly what it is and how it wants to play. Miami’s recent stretch has featured more improvisation, and the Heat are dealing with absences among several top scorers. That matters against a Spurs team that does not need opponents to unravel; it just keeps stacking efficient possessions until the scoreboard reflects the talent gap. San Antonio is one of the few teams on this slate that has shown it can both score and create separation consistently. They are simply too good and worth laying the price with here.
Read our full Spurs vs Heat prediction
Lakers vs Pistons NBA best bet: Pistons ML (+120)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
The Lakers’ recent surge has pushed perception too far, turning them into a trendy side in what is essentially a coin-flip matchup. Make no mistake, Los Angeles would not be a favorite here unless they weren’t on an absolute tear of a win streak. Detroit’s identity is far more stable, built on defense, rebounding, and controlling possessions. Those traits are less volatile than the Lakers’ reliance on shot-making.
In a coin-flip match-up, the edge goes to the team that can dictate structure rather than ride streaky offense. That’s the Pistons. With the market leaning toward Los Angeles because of recency bias, backing Detroit outright provides the sharper position at the absolute best price.
Read our full Lakers vs Pistons prediction
Pacers vs Magic NBA best bet: Pacers +13.5 (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The question with Orlando isn’t whether they’re the better team, it’s whether they’re built to cover a number this large. The Magic rely heavily on defense, structure, and controlling pace rather than overwhelming opponents offensively. That profile is effective for winning games, but not always for creating separation.
Laying this lumber requires sustained scoring and the ability to extend runs, which isn’t Orlando’s natural identity. Even if they control the game throughout, their style lends itself more to methodical wins than blowouts. That makes this less about Orlando’s quality and more about whether their approach supports a margin this big. Given how Indiana’s stock is in the tank, we are getting an underdog with an enhanced number in a spot built for them to cover.
Grizzlies vs Hawks NBA best bet: Under 240 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
This total is pricing in a full offensive environment, but the spread tells a different story. Atlanta is a heavy favorite, which often leads to a controlled game script if they get ahead early. Blowout potential creates fourth-quarter scenarios where pace drops and scoring efficiency declines.
Memphis, as the underdog, is more likely to shorten possessions to stay competitive rather than engage in a track meet. At a total of 240, the number assumes clean offense throughout. But if Atlanta builds a lead and Memphis slows tempo, this total becomes vulnerable to late-game stagnation and all the moving parts in play.
Read our full Grizzlies vs Hawks prediction
Rockets vs Bulls NBA best bet: Under 233 (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Houston is coming off a dramatic 124-123 win over Miami on a buzzer tip-in, and the market is immediately asking the Rockets to lay a big number the next night after such a dramatic victory. Naturally, the market is rushing to back H-Town against a sinking Chicago team.
Houston can absolutely win, but this is a classic spot where the market prices the previous result more aggressively than it prices the next challenge. Chicago is not trustworthy enough to back blindly, but that is not the point. The point is that underdogs in this range become attractive when the favorite is coming off a draining game and the spread expects clean distance when the spot could actually scream let down. Take the points and let the chips fall where they may.
Raptors vs Jazz NBA best bet: Over 231.5 (-110)
Odds available at Dabble Sportsbook at time of publishing.
A Jazz game priced this low in the total requires a look. Utah’s is thin defensively, which has led to more open, offense-friendly games. That’s the Notes speciality. Toronto, meanwhile, is still playing with purpose and has shown the ability to score efficiently against weakened defenses. This sets up our position beautifully.
The total sitting around 231.5 reflects some of what we said, but it may still be short given the likely pace. Utah tends to play freer and faster, while Toronto can capitalize in transition and half-court sets. With limited defensive resistance and increased shot volume on both sides, this sets up as a game that can clear the number. Take the Over.
Warriors vs Mavericks NBA best bet: Mavericks ML (+110)
Odds available at Dabble Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Golden State enters struggling, having lost multiple games recently and showing difficulty closing out tight contests, especially without consistent lineup stability. Dallas, despite its record, has remained competitive and continues to play with effort, particularly at home.
In a game priced near a pick’em, the edge shifts toward the team with less pressure and a stronger home environment. The Mavericks don’t need to be significantly better, they just need to capitalize on Golden State’s inconsistency. Dallas outright provides the best value until the Warriors can prove they close out a game without Steph Curry.
Read our full Warriors vs Mavericks prediction
Trailblazers vs Nets NBA best bet: Under 219.5 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is one of the lowest totals on the board, but it’s justified by game environment. Neither team has a strong incentive to push pace, and Portland, as a sizable favorite, is more likely to prioritize control over tempo. Brooklyn’s best path to staying competitive is also through slower possessions and limiting transition opportunities. It’s not like the Nets specialize in offense.
Lower totals require less to go wrong for the Under to hit. All it needs is just a few inefficient stretches or longer half-court sequences. Given the tendencies of both parties in this affair, this will likely play out as written and projects as a grind rather than a shootout. That makes the Under the reliable option here.
Bucks vs Clippers NBA best bet: Clippers -12.5 (-110)
Odds available at Dabble Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Deer and the Clips. It sounds like a children’s novel. Another way to look at is: season over for one and postseason aspirations for the other. That’s the difference between these 2 sides in reality. Laying lumber with the Clippers is appropriate here. It’s backing a favorite whose recent roster dynamics finally support a bigger number. Los Angeles is still fighting for Western Conference play-in positioning and just got a badly needed overtime win in Dallas behind 41 points and 11 assists from Darius Garland plus 34 from Kawhi Leonard. Garland is averaging 21.4 points and 7.0 assists in his first nine Clippers games. This is a time on the rise.
Milwaukee, meanwhile, stole a win in Phoenix — but that followed 6 losses in 7 attempts. Los Angeles is a motivated home team with real offensive upside facing a limping opponent in Milwaukee. Let’s lay the points and don’t look back.
Read our full Bucks vs Clippers prediction
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