Welcome to 2026. New Year’s Day NBA slate features a five-game menu to ring in the new year with plenty of excitement and action. Headlining the schedule, a showdown between playoff-caliber outfits when the Detroit Pistons host the Miami Heat in MoTown. We’ll also see the up-start Brooklyn Nets host the ascending Houston Rockets in the BK with upset ambitions front and center.
You can find our NBA picks for all of tonight’s matchups along with EVERY GAME this season. But for now, here are our expert NBA best bets for Thursday, January 1st.
Rockets vs Nets best bet: Nets +11 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
What exactly do the Nets have to do to get some respect here? Brooklyn is only 10–20 overall, but they went 7–4 in December with the NBA’s best defensive rating for the month. The Nets have shown real improvement on both sides of the court. Nevertheless, on paper, Houston is the better team, but that’s the point. Backing the Rockets inflicts a premium on backers here because they have more market clout and credibility. However, Brooklyn is a much better team than their record. That’s the angle. Covering double-digit spreads on the road is often fragile; Brooklyn’s upgraded defense and recent form give them plenty of paths to stay inside this number, even if Houston ultimately wins.
Heat vs Pistons best bet: Pistons -5 (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is all about home court advantage. The Heat playing losing basketball on the road while the Pistons are riding a five-game home winning streak. On the year, Detroit is 12-2 in the Motor City. All of those intangibles carry here. Detroit’s profile is built on offensive rebounding and physical drives that consistently win the possession battle. That’s exactly how you cover mid-range spreads—lots of extra shots and looks. If the Heat’s three-point shooting is merely average on the road, which is likely to be the case here, Detroit’s physicality edge should allow them to grind out a win at margin from the comfort of home. The Heat for what it is worth have not beaten a bonafide playoff-caliber side on the road yet this season. Why should that change now?
76ers vs Mavericks best bet: Over 231.5 (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Both teams lean offense first and that’s key in a game that is priced as a toss-up. Translation: there will be plenty of opportunities to score. That’s conducive towards the over before we mention that both teams combined scoring averages sit slightly above this line. On the flip-side, neither defense needless to say is truly elite. If this game stays competitive as the line would suggest, you’re likely to get more opportunities for free points thanks to late-game fouling. That is another ingredient ideal for an over. We don’t need a track meet for this number to clear — just normal efficiency from elite shot-makers and a competitive fourth quarter. Take the over.
Celtics vs Kings best bet: Celtics -9.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Celtics are the superior side here and that is reflected in the price. The C’s are deep from a roster perspective and well-suited to punish Sacramento’s weak defense: they move the ball, create mismatches, and bomb threes, while the Kings struggle to get stops or control the glass. Boston’s defense is also a beast of its own and it should force the Kings into tough, contested jumpers. Everything about this game says rout. We understand that laying numbers like this may seem counterintuitive, but there are exceptions. This is one of those occasions. Unless Boston coasts through this game and has its attention elsewhere, the Celtics should cruise to a comfortable win against the listless Kings.
Jazz vs Clippers best bet: Jazz +12 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This is more about the number than anything else. Are the Clippers good enough to be laying this kind of a tag against an offense as explosive as Utah’s? Our answer is we think not. Los Angeles is hot, riding a five-game cover and winning streak with several blowouts, but that heater is fully factored into the price. Utah still has real offensive talent to create a shootout on any given night. The Notes certainly have enough scoring potential to avoid completely collapsing and let’s remind everyone that the Clippers are not a winning basketball team. Moreover, the Clips’ offensive operations are inconsistent at best and not something to bank to winning at margin upon. In big-spread games between two teams with roughly equal records, the underdog often has more value—especially when they can score and the opponent has not shown the same potency. Grab the points.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
