Best NBA Bets Today: Odds & Picks for every game on Thursday, March 12 - Celtics and Thunder square off on PRIME

Napier Montgomery

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College football handicapper for Pickswise, specializing in college football, soccer and college basketball. Much prefer betting on the smaller/forgotten games than the big matchups, where the lines are a lot more vulnerable. PhD in Victorian Literature, putting my skills of the written word to the test with betting analysis.

Wizards vs Magic NBA best bet: Wizards +15 (-110)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.

Giving up 83 points to one man is not a good look, especially when you are triple-teaming the guy and he stills finds ways to score. That’s what happened with the Wizards on Monday when they crossed paths with one Bam Adebayo. Add in the free-falling record that Washington has suffered from all season long, and we get a spread like this one.

The better way to handicap this is to ask what kind of win Orlando is likely chasing. They like control and they like to keep things tight. If the Magic get ahead, the incentive is to keep the game orderly, not to keep flooring the gas. That is what makes this giant spread vulnerable. Washington does not need to trade quality for quality to cover; it only needs to stay attached enough to make Orlando play its starters honestly into the fourth which they will likely do. Add in the overreaction aspect from the Bam Adebayo debacle and the Wizards tick all the boxes of an underdog we’d like to back.

Suns vs Pacers NBA best bet: Under 226 (-110)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.

The Under is the stronger angle because the spread and total together imply control more than chaos. Phoenix is a clear road favorite at -9. But Indiana being just 15-50, does not automatically mean that the Suns will have their way and run the score up.

The Suns are a defensive-oriented instrument. If Phoenix gets out in front, they would prefer to manage the game rather than push tempo. Indiana’s best chance to avoid getting blown out is to play into this script. That creates a total environment where the Over asks for more cooperation from both offenses than the game flow implies.

Read our full Suns vs Pacers prediction

76ers vs Pistons NBA best bet: 76ers +14.5 (-110)

Odds available at Dabble at time of publishing.

More than anything else, this is mostly a math play. Detroit is the better team at 46-18 and playing in the Motor City, but the total is only 221.0, which means fewer possessions and less room for a favorite to build margin. In lower-total NBA games, big underdogs do not need to play well for 48 minutes; they just need to avoid the kind of extended collapse that leads to a blowout.

Detroit can win comfortably without winning by 15-plus. Once the spread gets this high in a compressed scoring environment, taking the points becomes the sharper side. Back the Sixers.

Read our full 76ers vs Pistons prediction

Bucks vs Heat NBA best bet: Under 231 (-110)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.

The Over is going to be a commodity here after Bam Adebayo put on a historic performance on Monday. The market is salivating as to whether or not he can go big again. While 83 points is certainly a reach, the point is, the market loves to overreact and taking the Over in light of what transpired is the trendy play.

You don’t think that Bucks are concerned about being the second leg of a trivia question, if the unthinkable happens? Miami’s offensive sets will also be refined to make sure that the focus is not solely on Adebayo either. As a result, this entire contest will be more of a possession game. Even if both teams have offensive stretches, longer stretches of pace and efficiency are an idea more than reality. Milwaukee doesn’t want to get embarrassed, the Heat are likely going to be flat from Monday’s spectacle and they will also be re-shuffling the deck to make sure they don’t get exposed. Unders usually turn up in those kind of settings.

Nets vs Hawks NBA best bet: Nets +14.5 (-110)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.

Atlanta is better, and the records show it. But big favorites need more than control; they need to sustain margin, and that is harder than it looks with a team like the Hawks.

We get that Atlanta is running hot while Brooklyn is ice cold, but the Hawks still sit in 20th or worst in scoring defense, rebounding, and opponent field goal percentage. This means that Brooklyn has plenty of opportunities to get second-chance baskets and plenty of chances to score. Inherently, that opens up the backdoor. The Nets do not need to be sharp all night to cover. They just need to avoid the total collapse that the spread is already assuming. Once the line gets this high, the burden shifts heavily onto the favorite, which makes Brooklyn the better side because the Hawks are not built for this role.

Read our full Nets vs Hawks prediction

Mavericks vs Grizzlies NBA best bet: Grizzlies +165 (ML)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.

Pick a side, any side. That’s literally what you are getting here, with two losing teams on their way to the Draft Lottery. This game is essentially a toss-up, which makes the Grizzlies the equitable side at plus money on their own court. Should Dallas even be favored here?

When two losing teams meet, home court matters more because neither side has earned the benefit of the doubt. Memphis is not good, but Dallas laying multiple possessions away from home is a different standard. You are asking the Mavericks to be the adult in the room for 48 minutes despite owning a 7-24 road record. That is a difficult proposition. Memphis outright.

Nuggets vs Spurs NBA best bet: Over 238 (-110)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.

The case for the Over begins with the total sitting in the high-230’s, a number that reflects the offensive identities of both teams. The crazy thing is that these two teams can go off for even more. San Antonio has been one of the most efficient scoring teams in the league this season, capable of generating points both in transition and through half-court execution. Denver can match that offensive versatility, particularly when its offense flows through Nikola Jokić’s playmaking.

When Jokic is orchestrating possessions, Denver frequently produces high-percentage shots or open perimeter looks. San Antonio meanwhile has Wemby who is another unicorn in the front court, but he has a supporting cast that can also light up the scoreboard. With both teams capable of scoring efficiently and pushing tempo during scoring runs, the game has a strong path toward clearing the number. Take the Over.

Read our full Nuggets vs Spurs prediction

Celtics vs Thunder NBA best bet: Under 216 (-110)

Odds available at Dabble at time of publishing.

Oklahoma City is favored by 6.5 points, and enters on a six-game winning streak, but the total remains the lowest on tonight’s slate despite being a high-profile tilt because this projects as a more selective, high-leverage, defensive-focused game.

Against Boston, the Thunder are less likely to find easy points for long stretches, and the Celtics are strong enough to hold their own going back the other way. This will simply be a contest where whoever’s defense holds up better, wins the game. That leans emphatically towards the Under. Whether Oklahoma City wins comfortably or Boston keeps it close, the cleaner betting angle is the under because both the script points towards a tighter scoring environment.

Read our full Celtics vs Thunder prediction

Bulls vs Lakers NBA best bet: Bulls +11.5 (-110)

Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.

One thing that the Bulls can do is score. That makes them a tough side to fade here, even if they aren’t nearly as appealing as the Lakers. Why? Because there will be plenty of scoring and that plays right into Chicago’s hands.

Big spreads in games with high scoring potential are fragile because quick runs, loose late-game possessions, and backdoor scenarios matter more. Los Angeles can control the game and still not create enough separation to justify laying this tag. Especially, if the perimeter operations from the Windy City blow hard across the court. Despite their lack of curb appeal overall, Chicago is the more attractive side given their potency and potential.