Variety and choice are things we all love. The NBA has certainly taken this idea to the maximum as Thursday’s menu features a 9-game medley filled with exciting clashes. Headlining the slate is the Detroit Pistons traveling to San Antonio to square off with the Spurs, with tip-off set for 8:00 pm ET. Also featured on Prime at 10:00 PM ET, the Denver Nuggets host the Los Angeles Lakers in a renewal of playoff-level pleasantries. You can find our NBA picks for all of today’s matchups, along with EVERY GAME this season. But for now, here are our expert NBA best bets for each of today’s 9 games on Thursday, March 5.
Jazz vs Wizards NBA best bet: Wizards -2 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
Early action shows the bettors gravitating toward Utah as the underdog, which isn’t surprising given the fact this looks like two bottom-tier sides in a toss-up game. However, that doesn’t mean Utah is the correct side to choose in this scenario.
The Jazz have struggled to defend consistently this season, and once teams get downhill, their rotations tend to break down quickly. Utah prefers faster offensive possessions and early-clock shot attempts, but Washington has shown the ability to slow games when needed. If the Wizards can dictate tempo and force Utah to defend, the Jazz can lose certainly by a basket or more if the Wizards carve through Utah’s suspect defense. In a game where the underdog is attractive, backing the short home favorite offers more upside.
Read our full Jazz vs Wizards prediction
Mavericks vs Magic NBA best bet: Mavericks +9 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
There are many reasons why the Magic are alluring in this tilt. Orlando’s edge is defensive posture and rim protection, but their half-court scoring can bog down when the opponent forces their hand. Dallas, though not exactly a blue-chip squad this seeason, tends to play slower and can turn games into contests where every empty trip matters. With a spread approaching double digits, all the Mavs need to do is avoid extended stretches where scoring goes in only one direction.
The Mavericks have the recipe to prevent that from happening. The Magic to cover this number requires either transition pressure or sustained shot-making. The Mavericks can actually interrupt both facets and if Dallas competes on the glass while keeping the game in the half court, the math favors taking the points.
Nets vs Heat NBA best bet: Nets +12.5 (-110)
Odds available at Novig at time of publishing.
Miami just crushed Brooklyn 124–98 when these two teams last met two days ago, and that result is doing a lot of heavy lifting. The Heat are clearly the better team, but the oddsmakers are daring backers to bank on another sustained blowout. As we know all too well, rematches seldom create the preceding outcome.
Brooklyn has been absorbing public aversion for some time now and the recent dismantling reinforces the noise. That stigma also inflates spreads. The practical counter is game script: after an embarrassing loss, the Nets’ main job is to reduce the live-ball turnovers and get shots up. If the Nets normalize and make it a point to avert disaster, they likely make the second leg of the back-to-back more competitive. Let’s not forget that Brooklyn has somewhat of a defense, and they will lean into that here to prevent things from getting out of hand. Take the points.
Warriors vs Rockets NBA best bet: Warriors +9.5 (-110)
Odds available at Underdog Sports at time of publishing.
Golden State’s offense relies on constant movement, screening, and spacing, which makes it difficult for opponents to generate the defensive runs needed to cover large spreads. Houston thrives when they can compress and minimize scoring. In other words, this is a clash of styles, but it is not conducive to laying lumber. The Warriors taking back this many points creates trouble for the heavy favorite.
Even if Houston controls the game overall, Golden State’s three-point volume and structured offense give them multiple paths to stay within the number. Catching nearly double digits in a possession-driven matchup provides solid value. Moreover, the potency of Golden State’s offense also opens up the backdoor for the W’s to slip through if Houston is sitting pretty late with a comfortable lead and playing loose.
Read our full Warriors vs Rockets prediction
Pistons vs Spurs NBA best bet: Pistons +135 (ML)
Odds available at Novig at time of publishing.
This is the big one of tonight’s slate and it’s a game that quite frankly can go either way. That makes the Pistons with plus money a tasty option before we go any further. San Antonio is an alluring option because of its high offensive ceiling and highlight-level talent, but their games frequently swing based on pace and shot selection. When opponents are able to keep the Spurs in half-court possessions rather than allowing them to play freely in transition, San Antonio’s offensive can drop off quickly. Detroit has the wherewithal to do that.
The Pistons have leaned into a physical style that prioritizes attacking the paint, drawing contact, and having their way on the glass. That approach slows games down and more importantly puts pressure on the opponent to prevent both transition and second-chance points. In matchups where Detroit establishes that interior pressure early, the Pistons tend to control the rhythm of the game. San Antonio may have the higher perceived upside, but this is a matchup where Detroit’s ability to dictate tempo and create paint pressure gives them a legitimate path to winning the game outright. That’s the play here.
Raptors vs Timberwolves NBA best bet: Under 227.5 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
This is primarily built around defensive structure and tempo. Both teams champion playing methodically and physically. Minnesota’s defensive identity centers on rim protection and rebounding, which mitigates offense. Toronto champions a similiar ideology and their offense also operates at a slower pace. Both teams stress an equal emphasis on defense. Thus, scoring will be at a premium here.
When two teams that prefer deliberate possessions meet, total scoring often stays suppressed. If both teams play to their preferred method which in many ways mirrors each other, the number of scoring opportunities should remain limited. In a slower, physical matchup, the Under provides the most value.
Read our full Raptors vs Timberwolves prediction
Bulls vs Suns NBA best bet: Bulls +11.5 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
On paper, this appears to be two teams heading in opposite directions. Moreover, in the last ten contests, Phoenix has won all of them. Naturally, the Suns have a lot of curb appeal. However, Chicago catching double digits has upside largely due to pace and shot-profile rather than a talent argument.
The Bulls take a high volume of three-point attempts, which naturally introduces scoring volatility and makes large spreads difficult to maintain. Even when Chicago trails, a couple of quick outburst from the perimeter can immediately cut a lead in half. Phoenix also tends to operate through deliberate half-court offense rather than overwhelming pace, which reduces possession counts and compresses margins. If Chicago maintains shot volume from deep and converts at an efficient margin, they have a clear path to staying inside this lofty number.
Read our full Bulls vs Suns prediction
Pelicans vs Kings NBA best bet: Kings +160 (ML)
Odds available at Novig at time of publishing.
Why not take the plunge on Sacramento? This is one of the best chances for Sacramento to win a game outright. However, the Kings have little appeal in this matchup. That’s why New Orleans who is 8-23 SU on the road is laying more than a possession. The Pels shouldn’t be, but the dynamics as result, create an opportunity to get the Kings at an enhanced price in a game projected to still be competitive.
The Pels are not laying a big tag here. That’s the key. And as we know, Sacramento’s lack of allure makes them prone to taking back an inflated tag on pretty much any night now. If Sacramento had any semblance of appeal, they would be priced inside a possession. Nevertheless, a spread of 4.5 still implies that both teams are likely to be within a few possessions of each other throughout the game, which naturally keeps the Kings within striking range. I’ll go in for the kill and say Sacramento takes it straight up.
Nuggets vs Lakers NBA best bet: Under 241 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
A total of 241 sets an extremely high bar, even for two offenses capable of scoring in bunches. Numbers this inflated often rely on both teams maintaining elite efficiency for four quarters while also playing at a fast pace. That combination is difficult to sustain.
When totals climb this high, even short stretches of empty possessions can make the Over a stretch. The Lakers in particular are comfortable operating through half-court sets to slow things down, which naturally lengthens possessions compared to transition-heavy matchups that scorch the hardwood. And that’s just one variable to consider. Categorically, a large total requires a lot of things to go right for the Over to hit. Thus, the Under in this range is the value play thanks to the normal variance which can undermine scoring.
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