Vedran Aracic
The NBA Finals are here, and we’ve got a clear contrast in expectations. Oklahoma City entered the playoffs as favorites, led by league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the NBA’s best defense. Indiana took care of business in the first round, then pulled off upsets in the next two. Now, the Finals bring together 2 of the league’s youngest teams — one expected to be here, the other still surprising everyone. With that said, let’s get into my best Pacers vs Thunder player prop bets for Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals, while you can also get our expert NBA picks for every game of the finals!
Find out our NBA Finals prediction for who wins the NBA championship, featuring a pick at +220 odds!
Best Pacers vs Thunder player prop bet: Pascal Siakam over 1.5 threes (+140)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
If there’s one weak spot in OKC’s elite defense, it’s their tendency to give up a lot of threes. They ranked 23rd in threes allowed during the regular season and have given up the most threes in the playoffs among all teams that made it past the first round. Siakam faced OKC twice this season, knocking down 5-of-7 from deep in the first matchup and 1-of-6 in the second, a big blowout game where he logged only 27 minutes. Looking at games where he attempted between 4 and 7 threes, he hit the over in 33 of 55 contests (60%).
Digging deeper: in games where Siakam played between 28-40 minutes with Haliburton and Turner both playing (Spacing and creation) and we filter for games against teams who allowed above-average threes and were outside of the top 10 spot-up defense (OKC ranks 5th-worst), Siakam had 2 or more threes in 14/25 games (graph below courtesy of PropsMadness).
Considering we’re getting +140 odds, we only need this to hit around 42% of the time to break even. Based on all the data, this looks much closer to a 45–50% probability spot for Siakam, which makes it a highly profitable bet over the long term.
Find out our Pacers vs Thunder best bet for Game 1 from our expert handicapper who is up +45.4 units this season!
Best Pacers vs Thunder player prop bet: Andrew Nembhard over 10.5 points (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Another postseason, another significant leap from Andrew Nembhard. Over the past 2 playoff runs, when he’s played between 28 and 40 minutes, he’s cleared this line in 22 of 28 games, averaging 14.4 points. Even though he is facing a top defense, they are not great at defending players who play like him. He scores most of his points as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, in spot-up and from the free-throw line, all areas where OKC ranks below league average. Supporting this angle further, similar player types have covered their points lines in 11 of the last 15 games against OKC, scoring 19% above their closing lines on average (see graphic below courtesy of PropsMadness).
Nembhard also faced OKC twice this season, putting up 23 and 16 points on 30% and 22% usage, respectively, both well above his season average of 17%. The primary driver for this uptick was OKC’s aggressive defensive approach against Haliburton and Siakam, which left Nembhard with more opportunities and shot volume. Looking at the broader sample, when Nembhard has played 28+ minutes with a usage rate between 15% and 25%, he’s gone over this line in 21 of 29 games, averaging 14.0 points per game.
Get set for the NBA Finals with our Pacers vs Thunder Same Game Parlay picks for Game 1 at +310 odds
