Another double-header for Monday Night Football in Week 6 with the Buffalo Bills (-4.5) heading to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. Josh Allen and company are coming off their first loss of the season at the hands of the New England Patriots, and they’ll look to bounce back against Falcons, who are fresh faced after an early Week 4 bye. The jury is still out on Penix Jr as the future of this organization as he hits at 3 touchdowns and 3 INTs in just 4 games with middle of the road QBR and passing yards to pair with below average completion percentage. The total sits at a healthy 49.5, which makes sense considering the offenses for both teams. Let’s get into my best Bills vs Falcons player prop bets for MNF, while you can also lock in our NFL picks for tonight.
Read our full Bills vs Falcons prediction for MNF
Bijan Robinson anytime TD + Michael Penix Jr 175 Passing Yards (-112)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I continue my streak of teased down prime time SGP’s with my favorite prop bet in this game in Atlanta. The lines on player props are often inflated in my opinion, making it difficult to feel comfortable betting the over in certain situations. However, with a total at 49.5, it can be more difficult picking which player will likely fall short. The Buffalo offense is an enigma with Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir almost identical in targets through 5 weeks, and Kincaid had a non-contact jersey on in practice Saturday. This makes their offense a clear stay away from me.
On the Atlanta side, I see a big of an edge in the Bills porous red zone defense. In fact, the Bills have allowed the 3rd most red zone rushing TDs this season (5), and I’m taking Bijan in primetime despite Allgeier being just 4 red zone rush attempts behind him. With Penix only needing to clear 175 passing yards, I’m banking on his floor being pretty high on Monday. Penix’s completions line is set at 19.5 and when he’s completed 18+ passes in a game for his (short) career, the’s over this line in 5/6 games (83%). If Buffalo does manhandle Atlanta, this play is still very much alive.
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