We close out Sunday in Wild Card weekend with the Los Angeles Chargers taking on the New England Patriots. The Pats were nudged out of the 1 seed in the AFC by the Denver Broncos but are hosting in Foxborough, and it is the first home playoff game since the end of the Tom Brady era.
Both teams did not meet in the regular season and the lingering storyline around the Pats is their extremely poor strength of schedule this season. While I believe you can only beat the opponents in front of you, there is something to be said about picking on the Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, Browns, and Titans. On the other side, the Chargers have been brutalized with injuries on the offensive side of the ball, but managed to lock down the 7th seed while going 5-1 in the AFC West. Let’s get into our expert’s best prop bets for Sunday’s contest in the AFC.
Get our expert’s full Chargers vs Patriots prediction
Chargers vs Patriots prop bet: Ladd McConkey (LAC) Over 3.5 receptions (-128)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It’s a little juiced, but well worth it in my opinion against the Man-heavy New England Patriots. In general, McConkey is over this line in 11 of 16 games (68%) on the season with a median reception output of 4. He has a massive disparity in target rate when facing man coverages vs zone, which New England ranks 8th in coverage usage according to PFF. Against teams ranked top 10 in Man coverage usage, he’s over this mark in 4 of 6 games. With that in mind, let’s back the Chargers top target to rack up at least 4 more receptions on Sunday.
Drake Maye (NE) over 0.5 Interceptions (+101)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Drake Maye’s pass attempts line is either 29.5 or 30.5 for the game, and when he’s thrown 29+ pass attempts in a game this season, he’s thrown an INT in 6 of 9 outings. Of those 9 games where he’s thrown 29+ pass attempts, 7 were one score games and the strength of schedule angle on New England is real in my opinion. The cumulative winning percentage of their opponents this season is 0.390, it’s the easiest schedule any team has faced in the last 25 years and no one else in the league faced a schedule below 0.400. Fraudulent? We’re going to find out, but the Chargers are a significant upgrade in competition than what they’re used to and we’re seeing that in Drake Maye’s turnovers.
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