The highest total of the Week 14 slate is the first one out of the gate: this matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions sits at 53.5, and this should be a game filled with fireworks. Both teams sit just on the outside of the playoff picture in the NFC, and this matchup will go a long way to deciding which one of these teams can sneak into the playoffs as the final Wild Card team. The Lions could be without WR Amon-Ra St. Brown due to an ankle sprain suffered in last week’s loss to the Packers on Thanksgiving, while tight end Sam LaPorta continues to be sidelined. Conversely, the Cowboys are coming off their biggest win of the season against the Chiefs and are looking to make a run at the postseason in the NFC. Let’s get into my best prop bet for Thursday.
Don’t miss our expert’s full Cowboys vs Lions prediction for TNF
Jared Goff (DET) over 253.5 passing yards (-112)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -120 for 1 unit.
It’s easy to look at the injuries of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta and assume that Detroit will rely more on it’s run game to get past Dallas, but since the Cowboys made the trade for DT Quinnen Williams, their rush defense has greatly improved. Furthermore, even without the weaponry, Jared Goff is a significantly better QB indoors at Ford field. Goff is averaging 260.3 yards per game at home this season, which is a whopping 17 yards better than on the road. While the Cowboys defense is improved, this is a unit that is still ranked 30th overall in passing yards allowed this season. I’m comfortable playing a discounted number on Goff due to the St. Brown and LaPorta injuries when you factor in how bad Dallas secondary has been this season. Gibbs and Jameson Williams are still exceptional pass catching targets for Goff that can get him to the 260-yard mark at home.
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