We close out the Christmas Day slate of NFL with the Denver Broncos (-13) heading to Kansas City to take on what’s left of the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes will miss the remainder of the NFL season with a ACL injury and their playoff hypes died when he went down in Week 16. The Broncos are currently in the 1st seed of the AFC playoff picture and holding off the Patriots as best they can. With a win on Thursday and a Chargers loss, they can clinch the AFC West. On the Kansas City side of things the positive story lines are limited, but it could be the last two games we see Travis Kelce play football. The total sits at 36.5, so don’t expect many points in this one. Let’s get into my best player prop bet for Thursday’s matchup.
Don’t miss our expert’s full Broncos vs Chiefs prediction
Isaiah Pacheco (KC) 50+ rush and receiving yards (-115)
Line available on Bet365 sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Chris Oladokun is starting under center for the Chiefs Thursday night after back up Gardner Minshew exited Week 16 early. I’m slightly off put by the spread and total of this game with a double digit spread and total under 40 points. I’m picturing a neutral game script for KC who will make a few surprise plays on defense and special teams while playing with nothing to lose. Pacheco is coming of a 73% snap count, second highest of the season and I expect his big play ability will be something Andy Reid leans on in both the rushing and passing game.
Given the injuries that Kansas City has sustained in recent weeks, it’s no surprise that Pacheco tallied 7 targets in the passing game and 7 total red zone rush attempts over the last two games. It’s clear the Chiefs want to see what they have in him over these last two weeks and there is likely a reason he hasn’t been extended past his rookie deal. I’m expecting 10-13 carries from Pacheco and 4-5 targets in the pass game. He is an angry runner with big play ability, so this number is extremely beatable if he can break off at least one big play of 10+ in either rushing or passing game.
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