Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
This is an interesting matchup for Monday night with the Jacksonville Jaguars getting +3.5 as home underdogs despite a 3-1 start. The Kansas City Chiefs saw the return of WR Xavier Worthy in Week 4 and it came at a much-needed time after starting 0-2; last week’s 37-point performance was the highest-scoring output of the season for Patrick Mahomes and company. The Jaguars can be taken seriously in the AFC with a win this week over KC, while the Chiefs can continue to dig themselves out of the early hole they dug out of the gate. The total sits at 46.5
Here are my favorite prop bets.
Xavier Worthy (KC) 4+ receptions / Trevor Lawrence (JAX) 5+ rushing yards (-128) 1u
Odds available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing
The first leg of this SGP: Worthy 4+ receptions. The Jags run zone defense at the third-highest rate in the league and it aligns closely with Worthy’s target share vs zone on the team. Four of his 9 receptions this season were against zone defense and last week he saw 8 targets with 5 receptions. The most impressive part of that stat line was that it was only done on 59% of snaps, a number I expect to go up this week. Instead of playing the juiced over 4.5 at -140, I brought down his receptions to just 4 in case one gets declared a rush attempt from a backwards pass.
Second leg: I added in Trevor Lawrence for 5 rushing yards. He has hit that in 3 of 4 games this season and is playing a Chiefs team that has allowed the second-most rushing attempts per game this season to opposing QBs.
Bonus Lotto: Brian Thomas Jr and Xavier Worthy 25+ receiving yards in each half (+750) 0.35u
1u on this SGP with a bonus lotto over on FanDuel, as well. I’m putting 0.35u on Worthy and Brian Thomas Jr. to have 25 yards receiving in each half. This game could turn into a shootout and many pundits peg Thomas Jr. as finally breaking out this week, after PFF pointed out that BTJ is seeing a 29 percent first-read target rate.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
