Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds, Predictions, Expert Picks & Horse-by-Horse Guide: Don't write off Journalism

Kentucky Derby 2025 favorite Journalism trains with rider Marc Witkowski at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky Thursday morning April 24, 2025. Michael McCarthy is the trainer.
Photo of Andrew Wilsher

Andrew Wilsher

Horse Racing

Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
Read more about Andrew Wilsher

When is the 2024 Kentucky Derby Race?

The Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, May 3, at Churchill Downs racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky.

2025 Kentucky Derby Post Time

Post time for the 2025 Kentucky Derby is 6:57 pm ET.

If you’re looking to place a bet on the Kentucky Derby and need a racebook to sign up for, then make sure you check out FanDuel Racing! New users can secure a no-sweat first bet on the Kentucky Derby or any race at Churchill Downs up to $500! Click here to sign up now, or if you’re from California or Florida, make sure you click this link to get started!

Kentucky Derby Odds – Who is Favorite to Win the KY Derby in 2025?

The current betting favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby is the Michael McCarthy-trained Journalism, who is available at 3-1 odds. Close behind him is Sandman at 5-1 and Sovereignty at 9-1, with those odds courtesy of FanDuel Racing.

  • Journalism 3-1
  • Sandman 5-1
  • Sovereignty 9-1
  • American Promise 12-1
  • Luxor Cafe 12-1
  • Render Judgment 13-1
  • Citizen Bull 14-1
  • Final Gambit 15-1
  • Burnham Square 16-1
  • Tiztastic 17-1
  • Baeza 21-1
  • Coal Battle 27-1
  • Publisher 28-1
  • Chunk Of Gold 30-1
  • East Avenue 33-1
  • Flying Mohawk 34-1
  • Admire Daytona 38-1
  • Owen Almighty 39-1
  • Neoequos 48-1

Find out the best horse racing betting sites ahead of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs this weekend!

Kentucky Derby 2025 Horses and Runner-by-Runner Guide

There are 19 horses declared to run in the Kentucky Derby with 2 non-runners. The 2 non-runners are Grande and Rodriguez, and that means they will not run in the race. Below is the name and number of each horse, as well as a quick guide to how they might perform from our horse racing expert.

1 Citizen Bull

Behind Journalism when finishing 4th at Santa Anita 4 weeks ago but has won 4 of his 6 career runs and has proved himself a top performer. Has the ability to be there at the finish.

2 Neoequos

Consistent performer and has chalked up 2 wins from his last 6. Neoequos finished just behind Sovereignty when 3rd at Gulfstream Park 5 weeks ago. Others appeal more with stamina to prove over this new distance.

3 Final Gambit

Comfortably landed a 12-runner Grade 3 at Turfway Park 6 weeks ago. This son of Not This Time looks the part on breeding and bids to pull off a hat-trick. He takes a step up in trip here.

5 American Promise

Won with something to spare over 1m1f at Colonial Downs (Grade 3) 49 days ago and has now managed 2 wins in his last 4 outing. American Promise makes limited appeal with this new trip an unknown.

6 Admire Daytona

A money spinner in UAE and Japan, winning twice from 6 runs. He is one to watch in the market as he makes his US racing debut.

7 Luxor Cafe

A money spinner in Japan, winning 4 times from 6 runs. The betting market might reveal clues to Luxor Cafe’s prospects on this first try stateside.

8 Journalism

Journalism has made a pleasing start to his career with 4 wins from 5 starts and his sequence of wins is stacking up. He accounted for Kentucky Derby rivals Baeza and Citizen Bull when coming home in front by three-quarters of a length in the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita last month.

9 Burnham Square

Has made an impressive start to his career with 3 wins from 6 starts, beating East Avenue, Render Judgment and Owen Almighty over 1m1f at Keeneland (Grade 1) when winning by a nose last month. He could be involved at the finish.

11 Flying Mohawk

Behind Final Gambit 42 days ago (Turfway Park) when 3½l runner-up in a Grade 3. Flying Mohawk has managed 2  wins in his last 3 outings but could be a bit flattered by latest effort so looks risky.

12 East Avenue

Behind Burnham Square at Keeneland over 1m1f (Grade 1) when involved in the finish last month, but could yet be a player here.

13 Publisher

Ran encouragingly when 2½l second over 1m1f at Oaklawn Park (Grade 1) behind Sandman 5 weeks ago. The extra furlong here could be to his benefit.

14 Tiztastic

Scored in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds 6 weeks ago and has now won 3 of his last 6 races. Tiztastic is unlikely to achieve more than just a supporting role here despite that win at Fair Grounds.

15 Render Judgment

Render Judgment went close in a Grade 3 49 days ago and possesses winning form at this track. He put on a respectable display to finish 5th when beaten 4l in a Grade 1 (Keeneland) 3 weeks ago, a race won by the reopposing Burnham Square. He is difficult to like with a number of his rivals showing good form.

16 Coal Battle

Successful 4 times in his last 7 starts and wasn’t disgraced when 3rd of 9 just 5 weeks ago in a Grade 1 at Oaklawn Park.

17 Sandman

Has 3 wins from his last 6, and one of those successes saw him beat a couple of his Kentucky Derby rivals in a Grade 1 at Oaklawn Park 5 weeks ago. He’s capable of making an impact here.

18 Sovereignty

Delivered in a solid effort in defeat 5 weeks ago when 2nd in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. Sovereignty won a Grade 3 in October here and won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes in February, and has a good chance of getting the win here.

19 Chunk Of Gold

Related to Stakes winner Band Of Gold but was behind Tiztastic at Fair Grounds when beaten just over 2l to finish 2nd in the Louisiana Derby 6 weeks ago.

20 Owen Almighty

A previous winner here, Owen Almighty managed 3 wins in his last 7 outings. He gave a fair effort when beaten just over 4l in a Grade 1 when 6th behind Burnham Square at Keeneland last month. Others more likely in what appears to be a competitive contest.

21 Baeza

Behind Journalism at Santa Anita when beaten three-quarters of a length to finish 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby last month. Baeza is related to Grade 1 winner Mage and takes a step up in trip here.

2025 Kentucky Derby Picks, Predictions & Best Bets: Journalism (3-1)

JOURNALISM is the worthy favorite and my pick to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby. He continued his winning run when striking last time and can confirm placings with Baeza and Citizen Bull, who were behind him when last seen. Sovereignty is one to be interested in, and a battle for the lead might have done for the chances of Citizen Bull last time.

You can bet on our Kentucky Derby pick on Journalism with FanDuel Racing. And if you’re new to the racebook, even better! New users can secure a no-sweat first bet on the Kentucky Derby or any race at Churchill Downs up to $500. All you have to do is click here to sign up now, or if you’re from California or Florida, make sure you click this link to get started!

Pickswise
*
By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy