After avoiding what would have been the biggest upset in wild-card history, the Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) move on to the Divisional Round to take on the Chicago Bears. Caleb Williams’ performance in the second half of last week’s game was really something special, and it will be interesting to see if that carries over into this weekend. Much is being made of the weather being 15 degrees at kickoff Sunday night, and Rams head coach Sean McVay tapped into resources in Packers HC Matt LaFleur for a few coaching strategies. We’ll see if it pays off.
Here are my favorite player prop bets.
Davante Adams (LAR) anytime touchdown scorer (-120)
Line available at Draftkings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 1 unit.
Adams was relatively quiet in his return last week for Super Wild Card Weekend: 5 receptions for 72 yards despite seeing 13 targets. Although the cold is going to be a factor on Sunday evening, I’m rolling with the battle-tested former Green Bay Packer to come through for us and get in the endzone. He has 8 playoff touchdowns in 12 total games and a favorable matchup against the Bears. Chicago employs man coverage at the 10th-highest rate and Adams sees the seventh-biggest difference in success between zone and man. The Bears have also allowed 14 receiving TDs this season to opposing WRs, which ranks 31st in the league. This is the moment Adams was brought in for, and I expect him to cash one for us in the frigid weather like he did in Green Bay all those years ago.
Caleb Williams (CHI) Over 0.5 interceptions (+100)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 1 unit.
Williams has been very good at protecting the football this season in terms of interceptions — only 7 total on the season. However, there is a trend for when his interceptions are occurring: 6 of the 7 have come against teams ranked bottom half of the league in blitz rate (the eighth was against Baltimore, which was ranked 14th — so just above that threshold). The Rams rank 31st in terms of blitz rate (only 17% of snaps), as they do a very good job getting pressure with just their front 4. Williams will see more defenders drop back in coverage than he is accustomed to on Sunday, which should increase the opportunity for him to be picked off. It does help that it will be 15 degrees at kickoff, which could lead to a few balls bouncing off receivers’ hands — putting them up for grabs in the Rams’ secondary.
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