Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
This week’s Thursday Night Football game is the first one of the season that raises eyebrows on the competitiveness. The Miami Dolphins (+11.5) are spiraling to start the season at 0-2 and HC Mike McDaniel is preparing for the unemployment line. The Dolphins head up to Buffalo as the Bills come off a dominant Week 2 win against the Jets; that game was not competitive, and many are suggesting the same for Thursday night. NFL favorites of +4.5 or more are 12-0 straight up this season (52-8 if you go back to Week 11 last season) and 36-23 ATS in that same span. It will be interesting to see if this game follows that recent trend. Let’s get into my best Dolphins vs Bills player prop bet for TNF, while you can also find out all of our experts’ NFL picks for Week 2.
Lock in our Dolphins vs Bills expert predictions for TNF
Best Dolphins vs Bills player prop bet: Khalil Shakir (BUF) over 40.5 receiving yards (-115)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable up to 42.5. 1u
I was on Khalil Shakir’s receiving yards last week against the Jets on the notion that Sauce Gardner would shadow Keon Coleman, and while that part was correct, the game got out of hand and the Bills went run-heavy in a 30-10 victory. Historically, Shakir has struggled against the Jets and against my better judgment, I disregarded that, but will not let that hamper my Week 3 approach.
Shakir’s reception line opened at 3.5 and has since been bet up to 4.5 at plus-money odds. Assuming that 4 number is a baseline, Shakir is over 40.5 in 9/11 last season when getting 4+ receptions. The TNF game against the Dolphins does reek of a blowout if you look at the spread, but the total sits at 49.5 after opening at 48.5, indicating some semblance of offense from the Dolphins. I believe this 40.5 is an overreaction to Week 2’s 1 reception for 12 yards, which would be his worst outing since 2023. Shakir is over this line against the Dolphins in 3 straight games. Miami ranks dead last this season in EPA/Pass allowed and has the 4th-lowest pressure rate, which benefits Shakir, who is targeted on 32% of routes when Allen is not under pressure.
Don’t miss our Dolphins vs Bills Same Game Parlay picks for TNF at +700 odds!
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