We wrap up Week 15 with an AFC showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers (-3). The AFC playoff picture is going to look very different in 2025 with the Kansas City Chiefs officially being eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday, so will be the first time since 1998 that we will have a playoffs without Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, or Patrick Mahomes. The Dolphins’ playoff dreams are holding on by a thread after Jacksonville, Los Angeles and Houston all secured wins in Week 15. They will need to win out and get extremely lucky for a 10-7 record to get them in. For the Steelers, they sit atop the AFC North with Baltimore right behind them following a win at Cincinnati on Sunday. It will be interesting to see how Miami comes out Monday night as its playoff window narrows.
Here is my favorite player prop bet for Dolphins vs Steelers.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) to record 200+ passing yards (+101)
Line avaible on Draftkings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. 1 unit play.
Everyone runs away from the fire and I run toward it. How that relates to this play? Well, you’re going to hear ad nauseum about how Tua Tagovailoa is 0-5 in below-40 degree weather and during the Dolphins’ recent success he hasn’t hit this number in 4 straight games. Despite both of those stats, this line is in the high-190s across all sportsbooks (a number he also hasn’t hit in 4 straight games). Tagovailoa is the third-most efficient QB in the NFL against man defense, a front that the Steelers rank fourth in terms of rate. He is also averaging 199.6 yards per game in losses this season. I’m expecting the Steelers to take care of business Monday night as sharp money pours in on the Steelers moving the -3 to -3.5. Tagovailoa’s pass attempt line sits at 27.5, which — if he gets near that mark — he has gone over this line in 5 of 6 when throwing 26+ attempts.
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