We finally snapped that cruel drought with an Under victory in Milwaukee last night. Let’s explore the series finale now between the National League West rival Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres as we try to keep the momentum going and get the season back on the tracks.
MLB Over/Under best bet: Rockies vs Padres Under 8 (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
This will be the conclusion of a 4-game set between the 2 clubs after the Padres took the first 3 in decisive fashion (all games were won by 3 runs or more). Funny enough, Colorado entered the series above .500 this late into a campaign for the first time in a few years, but their fellow division resident suddenly dashed their hopes remaining in such landmark territory.
The Rockies can get back to within 1 game of the dead heap mark behind their scheduled starter today, veteran Kyle Freeland, and it’s the presence of the 10th-year southpaw that actually intrigues me most.
Rumors of Freeland’s demise were greatly exaggerated after he finished each of the last three years with a ERA around 5.00 or above. So far in the new season, he’s honing a 2.30 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through three starts – even striking out nearly a batter per inning, too – and Freeland will be in a comfortable setting that puts him in a position to continue his run.
Although the Padres unquestionably boast a legitimately good lineup, their home venue of Petco Park is a pitcher-friendly environment that can also be a boon to hurlers. This has been the case throughout Freeland’s lengthy time in the big leagues, owning a perfectly respectable 3.53 ERA in 12 career meetings (11 starts) in San Diego across 63.2 innings pitched.
Most notably, Freeland allowed only 2 home runs. If he can manage to once again keep the ball in the yard, that’s something massive to be counted on by bettors. Lineups aren’t out yet as of press time but being a Sunday day game following a nighttime affair, expect to see at least a couple of San Diego’s regulars sitting.
Meanwhile, I fully expect Nick Pivetta to craft one of his usual gems. The Rockies may be tied for 11th in the majors in runs scored, but that is absolutely not going to last. This is one of the lesser-intimidating offenses in all of baseball — and as mentioned in the case of the Padres, they’ll probably have a couple of their normal guys getting a breather.
After a shaky 2026 debut on Opening Day, Pivetta has bounced back quickly and nicely — notching a pair of terrific 5-inning outings across his last 2 starts, punching out 8 in each. That’s all I need to see in recognizing Pivetta is back on the upswing and potentially in the process of duplicating his sensational showing of a year ago.
With a reasonable price to pay in hooking on the full 8 to this total, I suggest buying the half run.
2026 MLB Betting Record: 5-12-1, -9.32 units
Over/Unders: 4-11-1
Props: 1-1
Yesterday’s Result: Nationals vs Brewers Under 8 (WIN)
Each bet graded as if it were to win one unless otherwise indicated.
Follow me on Twitter/X @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.
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