Nice pair of wins on the appropriately titled Winsday to help build some early-season profits…. After having no bet yesterday, now it’s time to tack on some more.
Here is my favorite play for Friday’s MLB slate.
MLB Over/Under best bet: Mets vs Giants Under 8 (-122 at BetRivers)
We’ll attempt to do that in the Bay Area, where the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants are resuming their 4-game series following the latter’s comfortable home win in the opener. This next encounter presents a very intriguing pitching matchup to watch.
For the Mets, it’s rookie Nolan McLean getting the ball to uncork his second start of the campaign. Of course, while McLean is still technically considered a freshman in the big leagues, he’s already gathered a sizable amount of experience — and showcased just exactly why he has been considered a top prospect.
In 8 starts a year ago, the Oklahoma State product registered an impressive 2.06 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while going 5-1. It’s also worth noting that he averaged 6.0 innings per outing, which is certainly unusual these days when fresh arms are often babied and given a shorter workload upon their arrival to the show.
Not McLean, however. He was so good that it was just too difficult to not let him go a lengthier distance. After all, the 24-year-old was punching out 10.7 batters per 9 innings and limiting them to the Mendoza Line (.200 average). This was truly exceptional work from a first-year arm and a large reason why he got selected to the World Baseball Classic to represent Team USA (and pitched well there).
Following a shaky first inning of his 2026 debut, McLean settled in nicely and had himself a fine Sunday afternoon, holding the Pittsburgh Pirates to 2 runs across 5.0 innings and struck out 8.
He toes the rubber opposite Giants offseason acquisition Tyler Mahle, who might have a case as being one of the more underrated starting pitchers in all of baseball. Apparently, considering he only received a 1-year deal during free agency, many have forgotten how terrific Mahle was last year — when he was on the field.
Before landing on the injured list in mid-June, the 10-year veteran was sporting a stellar 2.34 ERA and had yielded just 4 home runs in 77.0 frames. More likely than not, Mahle was on track for an all-star bid with the Texas Rangers, but a rotator cuff strain interrupted his success.
Unfortunately, Mahle wouldn’t return until September — when he got two more starts before the chute came to a close. The right-hander was solid in those 2 assignments, as well. Given that the he began his new stint with a satisfactory showing against the Yankees’ lineup last Saturday, I believe that’s enough to gather that Mahle is on the verge of picking up where he left off. A total of 8 in this one also provides some room for error, not to mention there’s an effective Giants bullpen waiting behind him.
These 2 offenses haven’t stood out in the early going and it’s reasonable to believe this starting-pitching showdown can continue to keep those bats in check. I suggest buying a half.
Additional Pick: Dylan Cease Over 16.5 Outs (-130, FanDuel) in Blue Jays vs. White Sox
Matt Zylbert’s betting record
2026 MLB Betting Record: 4-2-1, +1.5 unit
Over/Unders: 3-2-1
Props: 1-0
Yesterday’s Result: N/A
Each bet graded as 1 unit unless otherwise indicated.
Follow me on Twitter/X @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.
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