Must get out of this rut. There was a slew of bad beats toward unders yesterday, and unfortunately, Reds vs Marlins Under 8 was one of them despite being the clear-cut correct call. Four errors (and another that wasn’t ruled as such but clearly was on the misplayed 2-run fly ball off the bat of Owen Cassie). That means we’re still seeking our first victory of the week. Hopefully, that can come from Citizens Bank Park tonight, which usually isn’t a typical landing spot for an under triumph. However, that’s what the goal will be here when the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies begin their 3-game series tonight. Let’s break down my over/under MLB best bet of the day, while you can also find out our expert MLB picks for each of today’s 15 matchups.
MLB Over/Under best bet: Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Under 8.5 (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
It’s a strong pitching matchup to kick off the weekend, with Jesus Luzardo hosting Michael Soroka. Yes, the Phillies left-hander sports a 4.97 ERA, but that was mostly the result of an off outing in his season debut against the Texas Rangers. Last time out, Luzardo was more like himself, pitching into the 7th at Colorado and notching 11 strikeouts while yielding 1 run. Arizona trots out a glaring top-heavy lineup that doesn’t feature much of note in the bottom half. That could be even more of a factor if Corbin Carroll remains out of the lineup like last night.
Either way, I like Luzardo to continue along in his groove. The Phils’ hitter-friendly stadium might scare off some, but the 8-year veteran did show off mostly quality work there last year after joining Philadelphia’s pitching staff. In 16 home assignments, Luzardo crafted a 4.16 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 11.2 strikeouts per 9 innings.
Meanwhile, the presence of Soroka in this one has me giddy. Do not think his 0.90 ERA – albeit through 2 starts – is anything resembling a fluke. The truth is that the former Atlanta Braves farmhand has been trending in this direction after taking some time to find his old pre-injury form. Soroka missed most of the first half of the 2020s due to tearing his right Achilles tendon – twice – but now it appears he’s finally settled in. Soroka was a trade deadline acquisition by the Chicago Cubs last year, but another injury shortened his stint with the team. Before that, he was really building momentum as a member of the Washington Nationals rotation, and now his return is fully coming to fruition. After a solid showing in the World Baseball Classic with Canada, Soroka is shining in his new Arizona digs.
After two outings, Soroka has only allowed 1 run combined – and these efforts came opposite 2 playoff-contending ballclubs. In the first one, Soroka even punched out 10 Detroit Tigers. True, the 2019 All-Star doesn’t exactly possess an enticing track record in his 4 career meetings opposite the Phillies. But just about all of those came years ago when he was still with the Braves, so that could be thrown out the window. Get excited for Soroka as his season continues. He’s going to continue being a factor, and tonight’s series opener will further solidify that.
Find out our expert’s MLB best bets across tonight’s 15 matchups
Matt Zylbert’s betting record
2026 MLB Betting Record: 4-11-1, -9.17 units
Over/Unders: 3-10
Props: 1-1
Yesterday’s Result: Reds-Marlins Under 8 (“loss”)
Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.
Follow me on Twitter/X @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.
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