The 2026 MLB season is now fully underway, having kickstarted with a Yankees 7-0 victory over the Giants on Netflix, before Opening Day brought 11 matchups our way. Today, we’ve got an 8-game slate to sink our teeth into. We didn’t have the desired start to the season, dropping yesterday’s Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres total for those who caught that on Twitter/X. But we’ll seek to enter the win column in the next over/under after tabbing this 2nd contest in the season-opening 4-game series between the Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners. Let’s dive in.
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MLB Over/Under best bet: Guardians vs Mariners Under 7.0 (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
If you’re not familiar with Gavin Williams, you should be. The 26-year-old right-hander turned in a very nice campaign last year, going 12-5 with a 3.06 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a minuscule .211 batting average. Additionally, he struck out more than a batter per inning, not to mention easily cashed my best Futures bet of last season (Over 129.5 Ks) by a large margin of more than 40 strikeouts. While Williams wasn’t selected to the 2025 MLB All-Star Game, it’s the 2nd half of the season that should really have fans of the former first-round draft pick salivating, as he went 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 10 K/9 across 12 starts following the midsummer intermission. There’s no question Williams is on the verge of making an All-Star team.
Williams gets the American League runner-up Mariners, who did not fare well against him in 2 meetings a year ago. Most notably, Williams held them to just 1 run on 4 hits across 7 sharp innings the last time he saw them in late August, in which he also punched out 8.
His counterpart, George Kirby, endured mostly a season he’d like to forget – but to be fair, it didn’t begin until nearly 2 months after Opening Day as he was recovering from right shoulder inflammation. It took a bit for the 5th-year right-hander to settle in, but eventually he did. In fact, if you take out Kirby’s tough May, he closed the final 4 months of the season by posting a 13-8 record to go along with a 3.68 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.89 K/9. Most notably, Kirby crafted a 3.06 FIP during this aforementioned stretch, indicating he pitched even better than those final numbers. When healthy and in rhythm, it should be academic that Kirby is one of the American League’s better starting pitchers.
This has the makings of a being a premium pitching matchup, and while the very beginning of the season might present shorter outings from the starters, that shouldn’t be too much of a potential obstacle given the relievers that will be involved. Seattle and Cleveland have both trotted out top-10 bullpens in each of the last 5 seasons based on ERA, and they appear poised to do the same once again in the new slate. Expect the starting pitching to dictate a lower-scoring affair and both bullpens can give us what we need to finish it off.
Matt Zylbert’s betting record
2026 MLB Betting Record: 0-1, -1.1 unit
Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Padres Under 7 (loss)
Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.
Follow me on Twitter/X @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.
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