The NBA is looking to close out 2025 with plenty of action as Monday brings us a monster 11-game slate. The situation atop of both conferences has gotten a lot tighter. The San Antonio Spurs and the New York Knicks have turned up the heat on the top seeds and with both in action tonight, that gap could shrink further. You can find out all of our expert NBA picks. But first, let’s dive into my best NBA player prop bets for Monday, December 29.
Kel’el Ware (MIA) over 10.5 rebounds (+116)
With Bam Adebayo likely drawing the task of guarding Nikola Jokic, Kel’el Ware should be left to roam the as a help defender and the teams main rebounder. He has able to do just that when these sides last met, recording a team-leading 13 boards. The Nuggets continue without the services of Aaron Gordon which means they lack size at the power forward, something Ware should be more than capable of exploiting. He is mobile enough to ensure he can stay in front of his man and allow the Heat to continue with a big lineup.
The Heat forward is in the top 10 of the league among players who have appeared in at least 10 games in offensive rebounds per game. With his size, look for that to contribute to his rebounding numbers here.
Read our full Nuggets vs Heat prediction
Sandro Mamukelashvili (TOR) over 19.5 points+rebounds (-108)
Jakob Poeltl remains on the injury report for the Toronto Raptors which means Sandro Mamukelashvili is going to draw another start. In the last 5 games that Poeltl has not played, the Georgian has been able to hit the over on this line on 4 occasions. Last night against the Golden State Warriors was the only game he failed to do so, coming 1 shy.
Mamukelashvili’s opponents tonight have more size inside than the Warriors and have ranked 7th in rebounding percentage this season. As a result, the Georgian is likely to see over 30 minutes of playing time, as he will be needed for rebounding purposes. With him making over 41% of his 3-point attempts too, look for him to play a major role on offense as well.
Read our full Magic vs Raptors prediction
Klay Thompson (DAL) over 11.5 points (-104)
The Portland Trail Blazers have ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive rating over the last 10 games and 19th in opponent 3-point percentage. It could be the perfect opponent for Klay Thompson to put together a strong scoring game. He has hit the over on this line in 2 of his last 3 games on 3-pointers alone. Thompson also torched this same opponent for 19 points in 26 minutes when the sides last met too. The Trail Blazers are also on the second night of a back-to-back look for their defensive effort to drop off further.
With Anthony Davis potentially being out, the Mavericks offense will be heavily centered around Cooper Flagg’s drives to the rim. With Donovan Clingan protecting the paint, look for him to kick the ball out, and for Thompson to benefit.
Read our full Mavericks vs Trail Blazers prediction
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