A brief moment of accountability from myself: the last few weeks have not been my best work in terms of results. The primetime games have been a tough read later in the season, but I need to be better. With that said, we’re putting a bow on Week 13 with Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants heading to Foxborough to take on Drake Maye and the New England Patriots.
Maye has the opportunity to put his name in front of Matthew Stafford’s for MVP after Stafford threw 2 INTs and lost to Carolina on the road. The Pats are 8-4 ATS and 10-2 SU this season. The Giants (+7) have been surprisingly competitive this season and have covered the spread in 3 straight. Dart has looked good in spurts, but injuries have bounced him in and out of the lineup all season. It my humble opinion, I think he can be special. I really like his pocket presence and awareness. He has an uncanny ability to feel the pressure and get through his progressions compared to most rookies we see in bad situations. The future is bright in New York (blue, not green).
SGP: TreVeyon Henderson anytime TD scorer + Over 80.5 rush + rec yards & Mack Hollins longest reception Over 17.5 (+550)
Line available on Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing. 0.5 units.
Despite the recent struggles, I still think these SGPs are one of the best ways to attack primetime games. Most individual lines are steamrolled past playable, so we reduce our overall exposure down to half a unit and multiple small angles to attack.
Henderson is in the spotlight of this bet and it comes at the back of last week’s performance. No, he didn’t score, but I was watching the Bengals game and saw Cincinnati hold up for 6 plays on the 1-yard line. Terrell Jennings and Rhamondre Stevens received all the rush attempts in that situation and that has to haunt head coach Mike Vrabel, so I’m expecting Henderson to be the goal-line back once again. We all remember his 3 TD primetime performance against the Jets in Week 11. According to PFF, Henderson ranks fourth among RBs after contact; the Giants rank 31st in yards after contact allowed per rush.
Regarding Hollins, Maye gets an explosive opportunity Monday night against a Giants defense heavy in man coverage and ranks 28th in deep completions allowed, paired with their propensity to run single high coverage shells at the sixth-highest rate. Collins has the most snaps of any WR on the Patriots this season and he has been a consistent 80% of snaps the last 2 weeks. His 21 targets over the last 3 weeks are the second most on the team.
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