NFL Player Props for Week 11: Best NFL Player Prop Picks for November 16 - Caleb Williams on the run

The 2025 NFL season moves into Week 11, and the postseason is now in sight. The Patriots moved to an NFL-best 9-2 record on Thursday night following their TNF win over the Jets, and now the focus shifts to Sunday’s games and whether the chasing pack can keep up. With tons of high-stakes matchups on the agenda, I’ve scanned through the entire day’s action and have picked out my best NFL player prop bets for Sunday, so let’s dive in! You can also find out all of our NFL picks for EVERY GAME in Week 11, with our experts boasting a 162-134-2 record for +27 units this season!

Best NFL player prop bet: Caleb Williams (CHI) over 21.5 rushing yards (-114)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

This line feels super low to me. Caleb Williams has hit this in 3 straight games and over the last 2 weeks he’s had 53 and 63 rushing yards respectively. The cool thing about those outings was that they weren’t down to just 1 breakaway run, but rather consistent rushes of 8-10 yards. Minnesota will likely be sending the house often, as Brian Flores often likes to do, so Williams should need his legs on Sunday. These teams faced off in Week 1 and Caleb had 58 rushing yards; all we need is a puny 22 here. This line feels off and I’m happy to capitalize.

Read our full Bears vs Vikings prediction for Sunday’s game

Best NFL player prop bet: JJ McCarthy (MIN) over 22.5 rushing yards (-110)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.

How fun is this? We take one quarterback on each side to make this game extra fun. I have good experience watching JJ McCarthy as I am a diehard Michigan Wolverines fan, and I know for a fact that this kid can run. McCarthy has cleared this line in 3 of 4 games, including in Week 1 against Chicago. The Bears allow the most rushing yards to QBs in the NFL and the most yards per carry to QBs. This defense allowed Geno Smith, Jayden Daniels, Tyler Huntley, Jaxson Dart and JJ himself to hit this line. As the season gets closer to each game having a playoff feeling environment, this NFC North matchup should have both young QBs scratching and clawing to make the plays needed to help their teams win. I like McCarthy to find some open lanes when the defense is worried about stopping Jefferson.