Andrew Wilsher
Wake up Pickswise Nation, it’s Sunday! NFL Week 5 is upon us and we have 14 hours of football for which to get excited. Things kick off with Vikings vs Browns in London before the usual mega slate across 1:00 pm ET and 4:00 pm ET, before the day wraps up with Patriots vs Bills on Sunday Night Football. And hey, what’s an NFL Sunday without a few player prop bets? I have combed through the entire day’s action and have picked out my best NFL player prop bets for Sunday, so let’s dive in!
You can also find out all of our NFL picks for EVERY GAME today, with our experts boasting a 74-55-1 record for +37.1 units this season!
Best NFL player prop bet: Geno Smith (LV) over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+134)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Geno Smith has struggled at times since moving to the Raiders, but one thing is clear — the man is a gunslinger. Smith already has games with 362 and 289 passing yards this season, and in each of his past 2 games he has cleared this number. Last week against the Bears, Smith had 2 passing touchdowns despite only throwing for 117 yards, largely thanks to a couple of dumps to running back Ashton Jeanty. But clearly that system works for Las Vegas, so don’t be surprised if head coach Pete Carroll looks to utilize that method again here.
What particularly gives this bet value though is how vulnerable the Colts’ passing defense has looked. In their last 3 games, they have given up 3 passing touchdowns to both the Rams and the Broncos, while struggling Titans QB Cam Ward had by far his best performance so far against them. Given that the Over/Under is currently set at 48 points, clearly scores and touchdowns are expected by oddsmakers in this one. With that in mind, Smith looks to have value to throw at least a couple of passing touchdowns at plus-money odds.
Read our full Raiders vs Colts prediction
Best NFL player prop bet: Bryce Young (CAR) Over 207.5 passing yards (-113)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I appreciate that it can be tough to trust Bryce Young given his ridiculous inconsistency, but this line feels too low for me. While he is coming off a woeful game against the Patriots last week, he’s proven he can get the job done at times, highlighted with 328 passing yards and 3 touchdowns against the Cardinals a few weeks ago, when Carolina almost pulled off an improbable comeback. What really makes this line stand out though is that the Dolphins are allowing 8.8 passing yards per attempt this season, which is the second-most in the NFL behind only the Cowboys. All 4 QBs that Miami has faced this season have gone over this line, including last week on MNF when Justin Fields put up 226 passing yards. With this matchup expected to be close and the Panthers playing at home, look for Young to have a serviceable performance.
Lock in our NFL Week 5 anytime touchdown scorer best bets, including a pick at +210 odds!
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