NFL Week 9 is already underway, as the Baltimore Ravens took care of business in Miami, dispatching the Dolphins 28-6. However, there’s still plenty of action to come, and I have 2 NFL player props worth targeting this Sunday.
Josh Allen (BUF) Over 30.5 pass attempts (-130 at MGM)
This isn’t a bet you can just look at the hit rate and move on with your day. This one is very dependent on getting a favorable gamescript. When Buffalo blows teams out, they lean heavily on Cook to end the game, and Allen will have 25 attempts or fewer. In a dogfight against Kansas City, I don’t see a blowout in our future.
Last year, when Allen went against Kansas City, we saw him throw the ball 40 and 34 times. He has 34+ pass attempts in six straight against the Chiefs; all we need is 31 here. In both Buffalo games decided by one possession this year, Allen surpassed this number. I expect it to happen again.
Kai Fairbairn (HOU) Over 1.5 field goals made (-145 at ESPN)
I’m drinking the juice here, but this is too good to pass up. Fairburn is 6-for-7 on this prop, and the game he missed he still had 2+ FGA. He is 17-for-19 this year, and this game will be played in a dome — where the weather is of no concern.
Houston is going up against a stout Denver defense. Denver is great at preventing touchdowns, so they allow the 2nd most field goals in the NFL. This game has a wildly low total of 39.5, implying we will see some drives come short. I love everything about this play; it makes it worth playing even at -145.
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