The Gold medal game of the 2026 Women’s Ice Hockey Tournament is set as Team USA takes on Team Canada on Friday afternoon. It’s the 7th time these North American rivals will meet with a Gold medal on the line in the history of women’s ice hockey at the Olympics, with Canada holding a 5-2 series edge in those contests. With so much history, championship pedigree, and elite talent on both sides, there’s no doubt hockey fans are in for a treat in this one.
As puck drop for this highly-anticipated matchup inches closer, here is a look at our best bets for the Gold medal game between USA and Canada.
Winter Olympics Women’s Ice Hockey best bet: USA -1.5 over Canada (-155)
Team USA has been a force to be reckoned with throughout this tournament. Team USA has out-scored its opponents 31-1 through 6 games, and beat Italy and Sweden by a combined score of 11-0 in the knockout stage to reach the Gold medal game. The stars for Team USA are shining bright, with Caroline Harvey leading the way with 9 points on 2 goals and 7 assists. The Wisconsin Badger is a true difference-maker, and is arguably the best player on the ice in this matchup. Along with leading the tournament with 9 points, Harvey boasts a tournament-best rating of +14. But the Americans aren’t too reliant on Harvey’s services to win. Hannah Bilka, Megan Keller, Laila Edwards, and Abbey Murphy all have 7 points of their own, and that kind of scoring depth makes Team USA extremely tough to beat.
Along with elite scoring, Team USA’s defense and goaltending have been outstanding in Italy. They constantly control puck possession and tilt the ice in their favor, which not only puts immense pressure on their opponents, but makes life easier for goaltender Aerin Frankel. Frankel owns a sensational 0.25 goals-against average and .985 save percentage in this tournament, and should enter this matchup with plenty of confidence after posting a 20-save shutout against Canada in Group play.
Canada may own a 5-2 advantage in Olympic Gold medal games between these teams, but Team USA has dominated the series leading up to this matchup. USA and Canada played a 4-game Rivalry Series over November and December, and Team USA won all 4 games in convincing fashion by a combined score of 24-7. After their 5-0 win over the Canadians earlier in this tournament, the Americans have now won 7 consecutive meetings against their rivals to the North. But overconfidence shouldn’t be an issue, as revenge is still on the minds of the Americans. Team Canada defeated Team USA by a score of 3-2 in the Gold medal game in Beijing 4 years ago, which should light a fire in Team USA for this matchup. Backing the Americans -1.5 on the puck line is the way to go.
Winter Olympics Women’s Ice Hockey best bet: USA vs Canada 1st period Under 1.5 (-135)
When these teams met in Group play, Team USA held a 2-0 lead after 20 minutes of play thanks to goals from Harvey and Bilka. However, I am expecting a tighter game earlier on this time around. Knowing that it may be tough to keep up with Team USA’s scoring prowess, I believe Team Canada will put an emphasis on playing stingy defense in the 1st period. Playing from behind seems like a difficult task for the Canadians, which means it’s quite possible that they choose to lock in defensively early on this contest. Establishing a strong defensive structure and preventing early chances would go a long way for the Canadians in their quest for another Gold medal. After allowing 5 goals on 33 shots against Team USA in Group play, I expect Canada to come out of the gates with a more spirited defensive effort.
As previously mentioned, Team USA has allowed just a single goal through 6 games in this tournament. Nothing has come easy for their opponents, and I expect that to continue in this matchup. The Americans held the Canadians to 20 shots on goal in their previous matchup in this tournament, and allowed just 7 goals in 4 games during the Rivalry Series. Frankel has been sensational between the pipes, and she proved she can handle Canada’s offensive attack during Group play.
Canada’s power play leads the tournament field with a conversion rate of 36.8%, but Team USA has done a good job of staying out of the penalty box. More specifically, the Americans have committed just 13 penalties in this tournament, which is the fewest among teams who have played at least 5 games. As long as Team USA stays disciplined, it will be tough for Canada offensively. All in all, I don’t expect multiple goals to be scored in the 1st period of this Gold medal game.
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