The quarterfinal round of the 2026 Olympic Men’s Ice Hockey Tournament delivered plenty of fireworks as 3 of the 4 games were decided in thrilling overtime fashion. Finland, Canada, and USA potted overtime winners, while Slovakia was the lone team to advance in regulation time with a 6-2 win over Germany. After such an action-packed quarterfinal round, hockey fans are in for even more excitement in the semifinals on Friday. A pair of intriguing matchups await, as Canada battles Finland and USA takes on Slovakia with trips to the gold medal game on the line. We are taking a look at both semifinal matchups for today’s best bets, so without further ado let’s get into the action.
Don’t forget you can also get our Winter Olympics hockey picks throughout the entire tournament.
Winter Olympics Men’s Ice Hockey best bet: Canada vs Finland Under 5.5 (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
Jordan Binnington is enduring a disastrous season in St. Louis, but his game has elevated greatly on the world stage at the Olympics. Binnington has made 3 starts in this tournament, and has been rock solid in all of them. The 32-year-old netminder owns a strong .922 save percentage to go along with an impressive 1.65 goals-against average in Italy. Binnington has been great, but it helps that Canada’s defensive core in front of him is playing at an elite level and making life extremely difficult on their opponents. Binnington has seen just 21.3 shots per game in this tournament, and that limited volume certainly seems to be helping his play reach another level.
Team Finland’s offense has been a bit out of whack and inconsistent in this tournament, and life won’t get any easier going up against Team Canada in this one. Finland’s overall offensive statistics aren’t bad, but they are skewed because of an 11-goal performance against Italy. The Finns scored just a single goal against Slovakia in the opener, and were held scoreless for more than 50 minutes in the quarterfinals against Switzerland. A wild 2-goal 3rd period comeback and overtime winner from Artturi Lehkonen saved the day, but the inconsistency is concerning for the Finns heading into this matchup.
Team Canada is capable of scoring on any given shift, but Finland goaltender Juuse Saros could be up to the task of slowing them down. The Nashville netminder has propelled Finland to the semifinals thanks to a dazzling .938 save percentage and 1.49 goals-against average through 4 games in net. It won’t be easy, but Saros should be able to give the Canadians a challenge.
Given the offensive inconsistency from Finland and the strong goaltending matchup between the pipes, the under is the play here.
Winter Olympics Men’s Ice Hockey best bet: USA Team Total Over 4 vs Slovakia (-150)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
For the first time in this tournament, Team USA’s offensive attack struggled to find the back of the net on Wednesday against Sweden in the quarterfinals. The Americans scored 5.3 goals per game during the group stage, but were held to just 2 goals against Sweden. Despite a lackluster performance in their last outing, the American offense has a great chance to get back on track in the semifinals against Slovakia.
Team USA’s power play is operating at a strong 33.3% clip in this tournament, and Slovakia has been rather undisciplined and spending plenty of time in the penalty box. More specifically, Slovakia’s 4.75 penalties per game are the most among the 12-team field, and their 19 total penalties are the second-most in the tournament thus far. It seems likely that Slovakia spends some time chasing the puck in this contest, which could result in more power play opportunities for Team USA. If that is the case, look for the Americans to capitalize on their chances.
If there is one area of improvement needed for Team USA, it’s 1st period offense. The Americans have scored just 3 total goals in the 1st period through 4 games in this tournament. Looking to change that, I expect the Americans to come out firing early and often. Auston Matthews and the Tkachuk brothers were fairly quiet against Sweden on Wednesday, but I don’t anticipate that happening again in this one. I expect USA’s stars of Matthews, Jack Eichel, Quinn Hughes, and the Tkachuks to be aggressive in the offensive zone and put plenty of pucks on net against Slovakian goaltender Samuel Hlavac. Hlavac has been steady in this tournament, but this is by far and away his toughest challenge yet.
All in all, it would be a bit surprising to see Team USA struggle mightily on offense once again – especially against a Slovakian team that lacks the NHL talent depth that Sweden possesses. Look for the Americans to have a bounce-back offensive performance in this semifinal matchup.
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