After a rollercoaster win in Week 18 against the Ravens, the Pittsburgh Steelers secured the AFC North title and are hosting the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football to close out Wild Card Weekend. Pittsburgh will benefit greatly from the return of WR DK Metcalf from his two-game suspension for an altercation with a fan in Detroit. On the other side, the Texans closed the 2025 regular season with an astounding 9-game win streak and 12-5 record. Coincidentally, both teams finished 9-8 ATS in the regular season. It will be exciting to see Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs again for the first time since January 2022; he’s 12-10 all-time in the playoffs while Texans QB CJ Stroud is 2-2. What will transpire on Monday? It’s almost time to find out.
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Texans vs Steelers prop bet: Aaron Rodgers (PIT) over 0.5 rushing yards (-108)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -120.
Raw data wise, Rodgers has cleared this line in 9 of 16 games this season, including in 3 straight contests. Rodgers was reluctant to use his legs at all early in the season and the goal was longevity. However, we’ve seen a different approach later in the season as the games became more meaningful and it’s become less about longevity and more about getting the yards needed. It was evident in the Week 18 game that Rodgers was not afraid to use his legs and pick up yards. After all, he still has a little bit of burst despite his age and Achilles injury. For Houston, it’s not worth keeping a safety in the box to monitor his rushing upside and Rodgers will lay it all on the line to get a first down should the opportunity present itself. This will be a fun one!
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Texans vs Steelers prop bet: Christian Kirk (HOU) over 16.5 receiving yards (-116)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -130.
I’m reading between the lines here on this one. Kirk’s receptions line is HEAVILY juiced to over 1.5 across multiple books and when he has 2 receptions this season, he’s cleared this yardage total in 6 out of 7 games. The big reason he should be a factor Monday night is due to his veteran experience, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are rookies in their first playoff games, but most important, he has a schematic advantage. The Steelers run single-high coverage at the 4th highest rate in the league and Kirk has a massive disparity in his stats when the middle of the field is open vs closed. On Monday, he should expect the middle of that Steelers defense to be wide open.
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