Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
After an incredible Week 1 of NFL where I cashed +290, +550 and +1100 winners on my Cowboys vs Eagles player prop bets, we roll right into Thursday Night Football with an NFC matchup between 2 playoff teams from a year ago: the Washington Commanders (1-0) head to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers (1-0). And I’ve got a pair of Commanders vs Packers player prop bets for TNF.
The spread currently sits at Washington getting 3.5 points and the total has crept up to 48.5. For both teams, they won in dominating fashion in Week 1, so it was tough to get a good read on whether there were any steps back taken on either side. Green Bay’s defense did take a massive leap forward behind the addition of Micah Parsons, while the Commanders had little resistance in beating the Russell Wilson-led Giants 21-6. It is worth mentioning that Thursday is Dan Quinn’s birthday and he has an 11-7 record in primetime (Matt LaFleur is 22-11 in primetime). Let’s get into my best Commanders vs Packers player props, while you can also find out our expert NFL picks for EVERY GAME THIS WEEK after our experts went 22-10 in Week 1!
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) under 42.5 rushing yards (-110) 1u
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing. Playable down to 40.5.
I’m fading the rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt in primetime, and a few factors are going into this one.
1. Pass Protection. Micah Parsons should wreak havoc on Thursday night and it’s going to be A LOT to expect the rookie to hold up in pass pro against that type of pass rush. I’m expecting fewer snaps on passing downs and that usually correlates to fewer overall snaps, or else you run the risk of becoming predictable.
2. Crowded backfield. Chris Rodriguez was a healthy scratch on Sunday and could factor into a crowded backfield Thursday night.
3. Inflated numbers. JCM went had 10 rushes for 82 yards with a long run of 42. So essentially he had 9 carries for 40 yards, or 4.4 ypc. This is the same defense that held David Montgomery to 2.3 ypc last week.
4. Matchup. In 3 games against Dan Quinn, LaFleur’s offenses have put up 30, 31 and 48 points. This would indicate a shootout, which is more suited for Ekeler.
Read our full Commanders vs Packers predictions for TNF
Jordan Love (GB) over 226.5 passing yards (-114) 1u
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable up to 228.5.
This prop ties into what I mentioned above about LaFleur’s success against Quinn, and we also didn’t get much of an indication in Week 1 of what this Packers offense is capable of. It was 17-3 at halftime, but Jordan Love had 167 yards and then finished with 188, if that tells you anything. I’m still very skeptical of this Washington secondary and can see this one being a little more action-packed than either team’s first game of the season, both coming off dominant wins against inferior opponents (yes, Detroit is inferior). Last season was riddled with injury for Love, so it’s tough to use it as a benchmark for statistical data, but at home in 2023, Love averaged 268.9 ypg and 264.4 ypg in victories. His median output that season (which I value more than averages) was 251 ypg.
Go for the big payday on TNF with our expert’s Commanders vs Packers Same Game Parlay picks at +607 odds!
