Latvia vs Sweden Prediction, Odds and Winter Olympics Men's Ice Hockey Picks for Today, 02/17/26

Team USA awaits the winner of Latvia vs Sweden in a game that sees the Swedes as the overwhelming favorite. However, the value in this matchup lies with the over. Team Sweden possesses strong NHL talent up and down the lineup, and although it hasn’t materialized to great heights so far, the Swedes have a favorable matchup against a Latvian team that owns a less-than-ideal team save percentage of .866 to go along with a 4.01 goals-against average in this tournament.

Sweden’s shooting percentage of 7.53% is the 2nd-worst mark of the tournament so far, but there is simply too much scoring talent on this roster for that to continue. Sweden’s scoring has been fairly spread out, but with stars like William Nylander, Lucas Raymond, Adrian Kempe and Filip Forsberg, it’s only a matter of time before Sweden puts forth a strong offensive effort. Latvia could be the ideal opponent for that to happen.

High-scoring games have been a theme for Team Latvia in this tournament, as all 3 of Team Latvia’s games have featured at least 6 total goals. The Latvians may not have the NHL firepower that Sweden possesses, but they’ve shown they can put up a fight in this tournament. Offensively, Zemgus Girgensons is leading the way with 4 assists, while Renars Krastenbergs and Eduards Tralmaks have 3 points apiece. Sweden has shown plenty of holes defensively, and is one of 3 teams to allow a short-handed goal in this tournament. Look for Latvia to come out firing, looking to pull off the upset. Given Sweden’s struggles, Latvia should be able to score enough to push this one over the total.

Furthermore, it’s worth noting that these teams have spent plenty of time in the penalty box so far in this tournament. Sweden’s 15 penalties were the most in group play, while Latvia’s 13 penalties are 3rd among the 12-team field. If that trend continues and both teams give each other plenty of power play opportunities, the over will remain in play throughout the contest.

Latvia vs Sweden prediction: Over 6.5 (+124) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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