Sweden vs USA Prediction, Odds and Winter Olympics Men's Ice Hockey Picks for Today, 02/18/26

Perhaps the most intriguing matchup of the quarterfinals is Team USA vs Team Sweden. These teams began the tournament with the 2nd and 3rd-best odds to win Gold, and Wednesday’s matchup is sure to deliver plenty of excitement. While there is plenty of offensive talent on both sides, the Under is the way to go.

Team USA has been a stingy defensive team in this tournament. They have allowed just 5 total goals through 3 games, and only 2 have been with Connor Hellebuyck in net. Hellebuyck has been fantastic, owning a solid .952 save percentage to go along with a 1.00 goals-against average in a pair of starts. He is expected to get the starting nod in this one and should be able to limit the damage.

Team Sweden may be stacked with plenty of NHL talent, but they have looked out of sync throughout this tournament. Sweden’s offense was underwhelming in the Group stage, and while they finally broke through against Latvia in the qualifying round, Latvia has been among the worst defensive teams in this field. Team USA presents a much tougher challenge, and it’s tough to expect the Swedes to light the lamp early and often in this matchup.

Team USA has posted solid offensive numbers in this tournament, but the 1st period has been a bit tricky. The Americans have needed some time to get rolling, and when going up against the toughest opponent they’ve seen in this tournament thus far, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Americans start slow offensively once again. It’s also worth mentioning that Team Sweden’s penalty kill has allowed just 1 goal on 12 opposing power plays in this tournament. It’s also possible that the Swedes know their best chance at victory is to make this game more physical and lower-scoring. With that in mind, look to the under.