Caleb Wilfinger

For the 2nd and final leg in our Florida State vs NC State SGP, let’s focus on Gavin Sawchuk to find the endzone yet again this season. The top Florida State running back has had no trouble tallying touchdowns to this point, as he’s racked up 8 touchdowns to this point in the season, with at least 1 score coming in 6 of his 10 games played heading into this weeks matchup. The Seminoles are a run-first team and Gus Malzahn’s offense is one that emphasizes different run game concepts to confuse opposing defenses, meaning that chunk plays and red-zone trickery on the ground could be on the menu in this game. It’s a bit chalky on paper, but this is a nice non-correlated piece at decent odds to give our parlay some more value on Friday.

Given the fact that my preferred side in this game is Detroit, that coincides well with the game going over the posted total.  The last time Detroit suffered a loss, it followed that poor effort up with a 44-22 beatdown of the Commanders, and the Lions also put up 52 points at home against the Bears after the previous time they suffered a defeat earlier this season. As previously mentioned, New York is not a team that has the defense to slow down this elite Lions offense, particularly on the ground. Detroit should be able to succeed on early downs and strike for explosive plays throughout this contest. And on the other side, the Giants should be able to tally at least 17 points against this middling Lions defense, regardless of who suits up at quarterback. With that in mind, let’s grab the over while it’s still below the key number of 51.

Giants vs Lions prediction: Over 50 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.5.

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This Week 12 matchup between the Seahawks and Titans is a pretty significant mismatch on paper, and it’s hard to see this imbalance not translating to the field. For starters, the Titans have plenty of issues, and now Tennessee is banged up on both sides of the ball. We won’t see Calvin Ridley this week, and the Titans may also be without Jeffrey Simmons – who is probably the most important player on the Tennessee defense. Now, an already struggling team has to take on a Seahawks side that is coming off an extremely frustrating loss to the Rams a week ago, in which Seattle outgained Los Angeles by nearly 200 yards and finished with nearly double the amount of first downs, only to still fall short thanks to 4 awful interceptions from Sam Darnold. Mike Macdonald’s team should be motivated to put a beating on one of the worst teams in football, and that’s exactly what I think we’ll see here on Sunday.

Coming into last week’s game, the Seahawks boasted what was arguably the best passing offense in football, and we can expect them to get back on track against a Titans defense that is missing some pieces up front and in the secondary. But the real advantage that the visitors hold in this game comes on the other side of the ball, where Seattle will pit its excellent defense (5th in EPA per play and success rate allowed, 2nd in EPA per rush) against a Titans offense that has been among the worst units in football all season long with rookie quarterback Cam Ward at the helm. We can expect Seattle to pin its ears back and get after the quarterback, and I’d be surprised if Ward was able to beat this secondary over the top. Lay the points with the Seahawks in this one.

Seahawks vs Titans prediction: Seattle Seahawks -13 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -13.5

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One of the most important games in the nation comes in the Big Ten on Saturday, when the USC Trojans visit the Oregon Ducks in a game that effectively functions as an elimination game for both teams in the College Football Playoff picture. Oregon has been cruising for most of the season, but the Ducks have struggled a bit when stepping up in class in a couple of spots. In fact, while they have a couple of impressive wins in conference play — including a massive walk-off win against Iowa on the road a few weeks ago — one could argue that a few of those wins haven’t aged all that well compared to how they were perceived at the time. This Ducks team has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, but most of it is still fairly young, and I’m still of the belief that next year is when Oregon will stake itself as a true national title contender. It’s also worth considering that Dan Lanning’s team was still pretty banged up a week ago and could be without a couple of key starters on offense this week — most notably freshman wide receiver Dakorien Moore — if those injuries carry over. With that in mind, even though Dante Moore was lights out a week ago and the Ducks will be playing in their final home game of the season, this one still has all the ingredients for a game that might be a bit too close for comfort for the Oregon faithful Autzen Stadium.

It’s no secret that USC has had major issues with going on the road in the Lincoln Riley era, but those problems have predominantly shown themselves when the Trojans have needed to traverse multiple time zones to play an unfamiliar opponent. USC’s problems have also largely come as a favorite, which makes this matchup a much different situation for the Trojans. It all starts on offense for Riley’s group, and he’s fortunate to have arguably the best wide receiver duo in the country in Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane. Together, this elite duo should see success against an excellent Oregon secondary, seeing as the only time the Ducks have struggled against the pass this season came against Indiana, who had a similarly strong duo of wide receivers on the outside. Not only is the Trojans passing offense one of the best in the nation (5th in passing success rate, 4th in EPA per pass), but USC is still a run-first operation, which bodes well against an Oregon defense that is still a pretty middling unit against the run by Power 4 standards. All things considered, I expect both sides to score in a game that could feel like an old PAC-12 shootout. However, the underdog is my preferred choice in this pivotal West Coast showdown. 

USC vs Oregon prediction: USC +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.

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One of the more fascinating games in the Week 13 slate comes in the Big 12, where the Baylor Bears will square off against the Arizona Wildcats in a game that should feature plenty of points in Tuscon. Baylor has been a relative disappointment compared to preseason expectations at the onset of the season, but the Bears still have an offense that is capable of putting up points in bunches, even in a losing effort. After all, we just saw Baylor finish with well over 500 yards of offense against Utah a week ago in a game where the Bears were thoroughly dominated on the scoreboard but still finished with 28 points. There’s no reason that Sawyer Robinson and company shouldn’t see more success on Saturday, even with Arizona’s defense coming off a solid game against Cincinnati a week ago. The Wildcats are an improved defense and currently sit inside the top 30 nationally in a variety of key areas, but it’s important to consider that Arizona has played a few of the worst offenses in the Big 12 (Oklahoma State, Colorado, Kansas State) in advantageous spots, which has likely juiced up those metrics a bit. With that in mind, the Baylor offense should remain consistent and score at least 27 points in this Big 12 clash.

As for the hosts, the Arizona offense got off to a pretty slow start in September, but the Wildcats have found their stride over the last 6 games as Noah Fifita and company have won 4 of 6 while averaging nearly 34 points per game over that span. This should once again be a very favorable matchup against a Baylor defense that has been the weakness of the team all season long. Baylor enters this game ranked 117th in success rate allowed and points per drive allowed (CFB-Graphs), so it’s hard to see the Wildcats stumbling a bit on offense at home. Ultimately, this projects to be a back-and-forth affair with plenty of lead changes, so I’ll grab the over in a game that should be a barnburner. 

Baylor vs Arizona prediction: Over 62 available at time of publishing. Playable to 62.5

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While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games that should have your attention is a big time contest in the AAC, where the East Carolina Pirates will visit the UTSA Roadrunners in a compelling clash that should produce plenty of fireworks. This is one of the better spots of the Week 13 slate, and I intend to take advantage of it by backing the Roadrunners to win as short underdogs at home.

On one side, East Carolina is in the midst of a very good run of form and the Pirates are coming off one of their biggest wins in years against Memphis in a game that thrust them back into the AAC title race and potentially even an outside shot at the College Football Playoff if a couple of dominoes fall in the Sun Belt and Mountain West. East Carolina’s offense has steadily improved as the season has gone on, as quarterback Katin Houser has now thrown for nearly 3,000 yards while tossing 15 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. However, this is a brutal road trip for a Pirates team that has struggled away from home against quality competition this season, and has had trouble with UTSA in the Alamodome in years past. Given the enormity of last week’s win, don’t be surprised if East Carolina comes out a bit slow in what could be a flat spot for Blake Harrell’s team. 

As for the hosts, UTSA has been an up-and-down bunch all season long, but the Roadrunners are likely a bit better than their record given how a few of their results look in hindsight. Historically, Jeff Traylor has been an excellent head coach against the spread in November and his team certainly looks like they’ve turned a corner offensively in recent weeks, with Owen McCown and company rolling through the likes of Tulane and Charlotte at home. Where UTSA has gotten into trouble has been against psychical and fast teams on the road (USF and North Texas come to mind), but that’s not the situation that they’ll see in this one. The Roadrunners pass defense is still an issue but they should be able to slow down the East Carolina ground attack and keep the Pirates behind the chains at points in this contest. And because they play at an extremely fast pace, East Carolina has not shown that it can consistently grind out close wins, particularly away from home. Given the fact that I expect this one to be a close contest from start to finish, there’s some inherent value on the home underdog on Saturday. 

East Carolina vs UTSA prediction: UTSA ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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