Caleb Wilfinger

After a highly entertaining Saturday slate of March Madness action, we should see more compelling matchups in the Round of 32 on Sunday, including a battle between a couple of storied programs and Hall of Fame coaches — as St. John’s gets set to take on Kansas in the East Region. These teams strongly resemble each other in a myriad of areas, so it’s a bit of a surprise that we’re getting more than one possession with Bill Self and the Jayhawks in this one. The market is clearly down a bit on Kansas, but it’s important to consider that this team was still up by 26 points in the second half on Friday before taking its foot off the gas and allowing Cal Baptist to make the game interesting late. Furthermore, the Jayhawks have a top-1o defense and the best player on the court in Darryn Peterson, who should see success in isolation situations against a St. John’s defense that has not faced a guard of his caliber since the early days of the season.

On the other side, it’s undeniable that St. John’s has been playing at an extremely high level in recent weeks. Rick Pitino’s team has rattled off 7 straight victories heading into this matchup, but the competition has not been the strongest for the Red Storm during this run of form, especially compared to what Kansas has faced. This is still a St. John’s offense that ranks 188th in effective field goal percentage and sits well outside the top 200 in 3-point percentage on the season. Kansas’ defense is also excellent in transition, which is imperative against a Red Storm offense that likes to generate quick buckets early in possessions. Ultimately, it’s hard to see either team getting much separation in this one, so I’ll take the points with the underdog.

St. John’s vs Kansas prediction: Kansas +3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Kansas +3. 

The #9 seeded Utah State Aggies take on the #1 seed in the West Regional, the Arizona Wildcats. This game is in San Diego. The Wildcats cruised past LIU on Friday, as expected, while the Aggies had to win a dogfight with Villanova. The Aggies pulled away late, but the game was back and forth for all but the final few minutes. Utah State is a good basketball team, but they are just outmatched here. The #1 seeds are #1 seeds for a reason, and we can expect Arizona to win by margin. Let’s take Arizona -12.

Utah State is a well-balanced team. They do everything well and nothing poorly. I have no real criticism for them. The issue in this game is that Arizona is just too good. The Aggies have no obvious advantages in the matchup, nothing that they can try to exploit to pull the upset. Arizona is more athletic and more talented at every position, and this is the time of year where talent wins. We shouldn’t really expect any of the 9 seeds to take out the 1 seeds, but we also shouldn’t really expect many of them to stay close either. Take the Wildcats.

Utah State vs Arizona Prediction: Arizona -12 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to -14.5.

The Texas Tech Red Raiders and Alabama Crimson Tide meet in the Round of 32 in a matchup that contrasts elite pace with offensive efficiency. Alabama enters as the highest scoring team in the country at 91.7 points per game, thriving in transition and relying heavily on tempo to create scoring opportunities. In their opening round win, the Crimson Tide put up 90 points, with Labaron Philon Jr. leading the way with 29 points while the team controlled the glass with 46 rebounds. Alabama’s ability to push pace and generate second chance opportunities makes them difficult to contain, but defensive inconsistency remains a concern, as they allow around 70.1 points per game and have struggled at times to get stops against efficient offenses.

Texas Tech counters with a more controlled and efficient offensive approach, averaging 80.7 points per game while ranking among the nation’s best three point shooting teams at 39.3%, knocking down 11.5 threes per game. In their first round win, the Red Raiders shot 64.2% from the field, with Jaylen Petty scoring 24 points and multiple players contributing offensively. Point guard Christian Anderson drives the offense with 7.7 assists per game, helping create high-quality looks in the half court. While Texas Tech allows 72.6 points per game, their ability to control tempo and execute efficiently could be key against Alabama’s fast paced style. If the Red Raiders limit transition opportunities and capitalize from beyond the arc, they can dictate the flow of the game and neutralize Alabama’s biggest strength. With Alabama’s defensive inconsistency and Texas Tech’s balanced offensive attack, this sets up as a competitive matchup where execution and tempo control could ultimately favor the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech vs Alabama Prediction: Texas Tech -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -2

Can we finally put to bed the debate whether or not the Lakers are real contenders? Luka Doncic is doing his best to do just that. He just exploded for 60 points in the big win at Miami on Thursday, the Lakers are now headed to Orlando in an effort to extend their win streak to 9 games in a row. Pulling off a win like that in Miami while playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back was extremely impressive, you could see how exhausted Doncic was at the end of that game playing his 3rd game in 4 nights. Revenge will be on the mind of the Lakers who lost to the Magic about a month ago at home 110-109, in a game in which Luka went for just 22 points on 8-for-24 shooting.

Paolo Banchero excelled in that win for Orlando with 36 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists, Magic fans are hoping he can repeat that performance on Saturday as their team tries to reverse a 3-game losing streak. Orlando has now dropped to 6th in the East, but there’s no need to hit the panic button just yet as they can still very much catch and overtake the Raptors in 5th who are just 1 game ahead. Orlando’s calling card in this game will be their home form – they’ve won 22 of 35 games at Kia Center and are 4-1 SU in their last 5 played there entering Saturday’s game.

Luka is on a heater we haven’t seen in decades from a Lakers player; he is now 2nd in the MVP race as well according to some analysts. A win here would go a long way for the Lakers, they’ve now created a 2.5 game gap for the 3rd seed in the West ahead of Houston and Denver. No team in the NBA has a better win percentage in clutch games than the Lakers (77.8%), if we get another close finish, it’s hard to bet against Luka right now. Take the Lakers

LA Lakers vs Orlando Magic Predictions: Lakers -3 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Atlanta Hawks will be trying to get back on the winning track when they entertain the Golden State Warriors on Saturday. Atlanta had won 11 games in a row before falling at Houston on Friday. Both teams are playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation, as Golden State lost at Detroit last night. Given that the Hawks are the much deeper side, playing on no rest should be an advantage for them. And despite the result against Houston, they are still playing great basketball in general. As such, my Warriors vs Hawks prediction is for the home team to win and cover.

Things got out of hand for the Hawks pretty quickly in the third quarter, so they pretty much punted on that game against the Rockets with plenty of time to spare. Jalen Johnson was the only player who logged more than 25 minutes. They should have plenty left in the tank for today’s contest, especially back in front of the home crowd — where they have not lost in more than a month (knee). Jonathan Kuminga (knee soreness management) sat out on Friday, so you have to think he will be good to go to face his former team — a team that he would really love to light up given how his tenure in Golden State ended. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 1-7 in their last 8 games and 3 of their last 4 setbacks have come by double-digits.

Warriors vs Hawks prediction: Atlanta -10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Phoenix Suns return home on Saturday after an extended 6-game road trip in which they won their first 2 games but dropped each of their last 4. While the end of the road trip may not have resulted in wins, the Suns remained competitive throughout, losing by an average margin of 7 points. It’s also important to note that all 4 of those losses came against teams that are comfortably in playoff contention. The same can’t be said for the Milwaukee Bucks and their disastrous season, as they enter Saturday’s contest having lost 10 of their last 12 games while going 3-9 ATS. Not only are the Bucks consistently losing, but they haven’t been remotely competitive, losing by an average margin of 22 points.

One of those 10 losses came on March 10 against the Suns, with Phoenix dominating the second half, outscoring Milwaukee 67-49 and resulting in a 15-point win. That win also occurred with an active Giannis Antetokounmpo, who will be on the sidelines on Saturday with a left knee hyperextension and bone bruise with ongoing discussions about shutting him down for the remainder of the season. All things considered, this appears to be a perfect bounce back spot for a Suns team that returns home after a long road trip, sits in 7th place in the Western Conference standings, and playing against a Bucks squad with no incentive to win and without their star player. Lay the points with Phoenix in this matchup.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns Prediction: Suns -11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are set to meet in what could be a playoff matchup preview on Saturday afternoon in Minneapolis. The Stars enter this matchup with 96 points on the season, which is good for the 2nd-most in the Western Conference. The Wild aren’t far behind with 90 points of their own. Both teams are primed for a deep playoff run, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this matchup produce a playoff-like atmosphere at Grand Casino Arena. With that in mind, I am expecting a low-scoring affair.

The Stars are still playing without Mikko Rantanen and Roope Hintz. While Dallas still possesses plenty of strong forwards capable of lighting the lamp, playing without Rantanen and Hintz is still significant. The Stars have been held to 8 goals over their last 3 games, which has cooled them off a bit after a hot stretch of offense from the last few weeks. The Stars should also be able to limit the Wild’s offensive attack, as Dallas’ defensive core consists of rock-solid defensemen such as Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley, and Esa Lindell. The Wild are also in a bit of a rut offensively, as they’ve been held to 2 goals or fewer in 4 of their last 5 games. Look for this matchup to produce a physical battle with limited ice space for each offensive to operate. Make it a small play, but look to the under.

Stars vs Wild prediction: Under 5.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Philadelphia Flyers will be visiting the San Jose Sharks on Saturday. The Sharks come into this game on a bit of a slide, they are riding a three-game losing streak. This is the worst time of the year to be going through a rough patch while they are in the middle of a tight playoff race. Goal scoring is not what the Flyers are known for. They are ranked 26th in the NHL, averaging 2.78 goals per game. They sit second-last in shots on goal per game averaging only 25.1 per game. On the flip side of this, they are one of the best teams at limiting their opponents’ shots on goal. They average 25.8 shots against per game, good for fourth in the league. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 games played. In one previous meeting with the Sharks this season, the scored was 4-1.

The Sharks are not a great defensive team, but their offense is only average. I am expecting a low-scoring game between these two teams with the early start in San Jose. Give me the under in this one.

Flyers vs. Sharks prediction: Under 6.0 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Detroit Red Wings are still playing without captain Dylan Larkin when they host the Boston Bruins at Little Caesars Arena on Saturday night. Larkin’s absence is a big one, as his solid 200-foot game is sorely missed as the Red Wings push to make the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Offensively, Larkin is 2nd on the team in goals with 28 and 3rd in points with 55. He plays on Detroit’s top power play, and Detroit is scoring just 2.8 goals per game in the 6 games since he’s been sidelined. The Red Wings were shut out the last time these teams met back on January 13 with Larkin playing, and things only get more difficult without him in the lineup.

The good news for Detroit is that Boston’s goals per game average drops from 3.47 at home to 3.09 on the road. That is still a respectable number, but Detroit is playing a lot better defensively lately and should be able to make life difficult on David Pastrnak and company. Detroit has allowed just 3 total goals over its last 2 games, and John Gibson has been one of the most reliable goaltenders in the NHL for the last several months. Both teams have 84 points on the season and are locked in a tight battle for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. There’s a chance this contest has a playoff-like feel to it, and in that case, I’m looking to the under.

Bruins vs Red Wings prediction: Under 5.5 (+110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Saint Louis Billikens meet the Michigan Wolverines in a Midwest Region second-round game at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y. on Saturday to kick off the day. Saint Louis cruised past Georgia 102-77 in the opening round, cashing as a 1.5-point favorite as the Over cashed. Prior to that cover, SLU was just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in the previous 6, however. The Billikens have cashed the Over in 2 of the past 3 games in the postseason, including the Atlantic 10 Conference tournament. However, the Under has a 3-2 edge in five neutral-site games this season, while going 3-1 in 4 games against teams in the NCAA Tournament, with the lone exception for rout of UGA.

Michigan pounded 16-seed Howard 101-80, but failed to cover as a 30.5-point favorite as the Over (151.5) easily cashed. However, the Under was 2-1 in the Big Ten tournament for Dusty May’s bunch, while the Under is 5-3 in the past 8 neutral-site games for the Wolverines. Michigan has also failed to cover the past 6 games, while going 1-8 ATS in the previous 9 outings. If you’re looking for a same-game parlay opportunity, going Under on the total, coupled with Saint Louis is the way to go. If you’re looking for just a singular play, the Billikens catching double digits is the play. Michigan is 0-6 ATS in the past six tries as a favorite of 9.5 or more points.

Saint Louis vs Michigan prediction: Saint Louis +12.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to +11.5.

After a highly entertaining opening day of March Madness action that featured plenty of compelling college hoops, Friday’s slate was largely a letdown. However, we should get plenty of compelling matchups in the Round of 32 this weekend, including a battle between the Texas A&M Aggies and Houston Cougars. Based off what we just saw on Thursday, I can understand the case for backing Texas A&M at this number. After all, the Houston offense can be prone to extended scoring droughts and the Aggies are fresh off a dominant victory over a Saint Mary’s team that plays a somewhat similar defense-focused style to what the Cougars focus on. However, that performance was more about Saint Mary’s and the Gaels’ complete lack of athleticism than what the Aggies were bringing to the table, specifically on the defensive side of the ball.

Compared to most of its opponents this season, Houston is a much tougher matchup for this Texas A&M. The Aggies thrive on outworking the opponent and creating chaos, but they won’t be able to accomplish that against a Cougars team that is elite at taking care of the basketball (5th in turnover rate) and generating offense late in the shot clock. More importantly, Kelvin Sampson’s team consistently dominates the glass and should hold a massive edge on the offensive boards against an Aggies defense that is 280th in defensive rebounding percentage (BartTorvik). Ultimately, Texas A&M is well outside the top 200 in 2-point percentage defense, and we can expect Kingston Flemings and the Houston offense to have enough to win this game by double digits.

Texas A&M vs Houston prediction: Houston -9.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -10.5.

The scoreboard operator better limber up their fingers, because they’re going to be busy. Arkansas averaged 90.1 points per game this season, good for third in the nation. Right on its heels, High Point averaged 89.8 points per game, ranking 4th in the country. This game figures to be a track meet. High Point had the late-game heroics to surprise Wisconsin 83-82 as a 10.5-point underdog in Round 1, pulling off a 12-5 upset as the Over cashed. The Over also cashed against Winthrop in the Big South Tournament Championship Game, while going 4-2 in the past 6 outings, 7-3 in the past 10 games, and 12-5 across the previous 17 contests.

For Arkansas, it cruised by Hawaii 97-78 in the first round, cashing as a 13.5-point favorite, avoiding the 13-4 upset with ease. The Over cashed, too, which was a frequent happening with Coach John Calipari’s squad. The Over is just 2-2 in 4 postseason games, including the SEC Tournament, but the total has gone high in eight of the past 10 games since Feb. 18. In addition, Arkansas has scored at least 82 points in 6 consecutive outings, while hitting that mark in 12 of the past 13 contests. Arkansas has also allowed at least 75 points in 11 in a row. Look for a track meet in Portland to wrap up the Saturday second-round action.

High Point vs Arkansas prediction: Over 168.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 169.5.