Caleb Wilfinger

The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs play another afternoon game on Saturday. Friday’s game turned into a typical windy Chicago game, and balls were flying out of the yard left and right. The Cubs ultimately won the game, 12-4, extending the Mets’ losing streak to an embarrassing 9 games. The folks in Queens are already watching games with paper bags on their heads, even at the local sports bar. Surely this streak will end someday, and I am betting on it to end today. Give me the Mets on the Money Line.

I am looking at two major reasons to back the Mets today. First is Freddy Peralta. The Mets may be losing, but it hasn’t been Peralta’s fault. He has pitched well in New York so far, but remember that he has seen the Cubs a ton while with the Brewers. The results for the Cubs have been awful against him. Take just a couple of examples: Ian Happ is 2-for-32, and Seiya Suzuki is 3-for-23. PCA is the only player in the lineup that has seen Peralta 10+ times with any success. The second reason is the Cubs’ bullpen issues. It hasn’t been exposed yet, but Daniel Palencia just went to the IL with an oblique strain, and they are down a couple of other key arms right now as well. Today is the day for the Mets.

Mets vs Cubs Prediction: Mets ML (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Baltimore Orioles and the Cleveland Guardians have split the first 2 games of their 4-game weekend series, and Game 3 is set for Saturday afternoon. Dean Kremer is the scheduled starter for Baltimore in this game marking his 2nd start of the season. His first outing resulted in 9 strikeouts to 0 walks across 5 innings, but he did allow 3 home runs and 4 total runs to cross the plate. It was encouraging for Kremer backers and Orioles fans to see his increased whiff rate, but Kremer is not someone I fully trust without a larger sample of success.

Gavin Williams is set to start this game for Cleveland as he makes his 5th start of the season. Williams has had a pretty tough schedule so far, facing the Dodgers, Cardinals, Royals, and Mariners. Williams has allowed a home run in 3 of those 4 starts, and his 16 walks issued are a major concern. He has struck out 29 batters in that sample, and that strikeout production will need to remain high in order to avoid poor outings. While his command is an issue, Williams is still my preferred starter in this game, and I lean towards a Guardians win at home given current pricing.

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles prediction: Guardians ML (-132) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers have been dominant to start the season and will look to make it 5 straight wins as they take on the Colorado Rockies. Over their last 10 games, the Dodgers have won 8, averaging 5.8 runs per game while hitting .289. It’s been a different story for the Rockies who dropped seven of its last 10 while averaging just 3.7 runs per game and hitting .232. As far as pitching goes, the Dodgers hold a 2.43 ERA in that span while the Rockies hold a 4.11 ERA. 

Emmet Sheehan will get the start for the Dodgers, entering at 2-0 with a 6.60 ERA. For the Rockies, Ryan Feltner will take the mound who is 1-1 with a 7.30 ERA through three starts this season. Neither pitcher inspires much confidence, which is where the value in this matchup lies. Feltner has had issues against the Dodgers in his career, going 1-3 with a 6.75 era in seven appearances, and this current lineup is swinging the bat at a high level. On the other side, even a below-average Rockies offense should have opportunities against a Dodgers starter who has yet to find consistency. The Dodgers deserve to be heavy favorites, but at that price, it’s not worth it. With two shaky arms on the mound and one of the hottest offenses in baseball, this sets up as a high-scoring game, making the over the best play of the day. 

Dodgers vs Rockies prediction: Over 11.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Toronto Raptors hit the road for Rocket Arena for their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Raptors won and covered all 3 regular-season meetings against the Cavaliers, and each of the victories came by at least 11 points, with an average margin of victory by 11.7 points per game. While that’s impressive, it is also notable that these teams haven’t met since late November, and a lot has changed since then. In fact, Toronto is just 1-4 against the spread in the past 5 road games, although it was 3-1 ATS in the final four games, and 11-6 ATS in the final 17 outings of the regular season.

The Cavaliers have won all three previous playoff series against the Raptors, with each of the meetings coming in successive seasons from 2016 through 2018. Cleveland is 12-2 SU in those meetings, and each game was during the second era of LeBron James’ time with the Cavaliers. The Cavs finished out the regular season with 5 victories in the final 6 games, while going 3-1 ATS in the past 4 outings. However, they’re just 6-12-1 ATS in the past 19 outings. Cleveland could very well win this one, but Toronto catching more than 4 buckets is a little too much.

Raptors vs Cavaliers prediction: Raptors +8 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to +6.5.

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For the 2nd season in a row, the Timberwolves finish the year 49-33 and enter the postseason as the 6th seed in the loaded West. They’re looking to go back to the West Finals for a 3rd straight season, however, as far as optimism goes heading into the postseason, I’d argue it’s at its lowest since this impressive run they’ve been on. The main issues revolve around Anthony Edwards and his right knee injury, because of which he’s played in just 3 times since mid-March. On top of that, one of their key role players Jaden McDaniels is also struggling with a left knee issue; these are major red flags if you’re a Timberwolves supporter.

The Nuggets have had their fair share of injury issues this year, but they look a lot better going into Game 1 with most of their big name players being healthy. Getting a 5-day break before the postseason begins will be massive for them, especially Jamal Murray — who has had to carry an additional load with Jokic and Gordon missing a decent chunk of the season. Expectations are high in the Nuggets camp going into this postseason. Some people were questioning whether they want to face Minnesota in Round 1, but I think a team led by a 3-time MVP doesn’t really care who comes their way. Aside from the Thunder, I’d argue the Nuggets are the team to beat in the Western Conference playoffs, and yes I did not forget about the Spurs.

Setting the tone in Game 1 could be the key for the rest of the series. As we all know, these two have a history of playing each other on the biggest stage. We all still remember that upset win in Game 7 for Minnesota the last time they matched up in the postseason. Something tells me the Nuggets didn’t forget about that painful experience, so I think they’ll take the T’Wolves far more seriously this time around. They won 3 of 4 meetings during the regular season, and 2 of those were decided by double-digits. I’ll take my chances with Jokic and co. in the series opener on Saturday.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction: Denver Nuggets -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Stanley Cup playoffs get underway on Saturday afternoon as the Carolina Hurricanes will be hosting the Ottawa Senators to lead things off. As winners of the Eastern Conference, the Hurricanes will have the home ice advantage in this series. This is important because they are were tied for the most regular season wins on home ice by any team. Their record at the Lenovo Center this season was 29-10-2. These teams split the regular season series, each winning one game. The Senators are among the most popular picks to pull off a first-round upset. However, I am still worried about their defensive play and goaltending. After all Linus Ullmark went through this season, he finished very strong. If this solid play continues into the playoffs, the Senators stand a real chance to beat the Hurricanes. Ullmark has not been good in the playoffs throughout his career, as he has a 5-10-0 record in 15 starts, with a 3.28 GAA and .885 SVP. The Senators will not be able to score their way through this series as the Hurricanes were the 5th-best defensive team in the league during the regular season, averaging 2.88 goals against per game.

The Hurricanes play a very fast and aggressive forechecking style of game that I think is going to wear down the Senators defense as this series progresses. I expect some nerves in the first game from Ullmark and the Senators, and the veteran lineup of the Hurricanes should be able to capitalize on this. Give me the Hurricanes to get it done in the opening game of the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Senators vs. Hurricanes prediction: Hurricanes ML (-150) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Stanley Cup Playoffs will finally be underway for the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild when the puck drops on Saturday afternoon. The Stars have the home ice advantage in this very evenly matched first round matchup and I believe it will help give the Stars an edge. These 2 teams split the regular season series with two wins apiece. Both of these teams are very good on the defensive side of the puck. They both ranked inside the top 5 teams in the NHL for goals against. The Wild ranked fourth, averaging 2.87 goals against per game and the Stars were the second-best team in that category, averaging 2.71 goals against per game. Both starting netminders had impressive regular season numbers, Jesper Wallstedt of the Wild had a 2.62 GAA, while Jake Oettinger for the Stars has a 2.59 GAA.

I expect these teams to ease themselves into the playoffs with a buttoned up defensive first period as neither team will want to be the first to make a mistake. Playoff games are typically lower scoring, and I think that is what we will see in game one between the Stars and Wild. Give me the under in this one.

Wild vs. Stars prediction: Under 5.5 (+105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins will begin their best-of-7 first-round series in the Stanley Cup playoffs when they clash in Game 1 in Pittsburgh on Saturday night. Don’t be alarmed by the Penguins’ 3-game losing streak to end the regular season — they had already clinched a playoff spot and home-ice advantage in round 1 prior to that skid. The Pens had previously won 3 in a row before pretty much waving the white flag on the remainder of the regular season. When motivated, this club has been playing good hockey. The Flyers, on the other hand, emptied the tank with a late surge to clinch their first playoff appearance since 2019-20 earlier this week. Although plenty of days off helps, it’s still an advantage for Pittsburgh to have basically rested while Philadelphia was making an emotionally draining push for the playoffs. That’s part of the reason why my Flyers vs Penguins pick is Pittsburgh on the money.

It should also be noted that their split of the 4-game regular-season series hardly tells the real story. The Flyers picked up both of their wins in shootouts; the Pens dominated their 2 victorious contests by a combined 11-4 margin. For those counting, that means (not including shootouts) Pittsburgh outscored Philly by 7 goals in the 4 head-to-head encounters. Sidney Crosby heads into another playoff campaign having recorded multiple assists in 3 of his last 4 outings. In the series opener, I’m backing Crosby and the rest of the Penguins’ veterans to ride their experience to a hard-fought victory over an upstart Flyers squad.

Flyers vs Penguins prediction: Pittsburgh ML (-142) available at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

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