Caleb Wilfinger

The Sacramento Kings head to the Alamo to take on the San Antonio Spurs, and it’s been a rough time for the Kings lately. The team announced that leading scorer Zach LaVine will have surgery to repair a tendon in his hand, so he’ll miss the rest of the season. It was also announced that veteran center Domantas Sabonis will miss the rest of the season due to surgery to repair his torn left meniscus. The Kings have cratered offensively, too, as you would expect. LaVine was averaging 19.2 points per game, while Sabonis was third with 15.8 PPG, while leading the team with 11.4 RPG, with 4.1 APG to rank second. That’s over 30 percent of the team’s offense gone for the remainder of the season, and the offense is having a hard time picking up the slack.

Sacramento was thumped 131-94 in the first game out of the break Thursday, failing as an 8.5-point underdog, and it has scored 94 or fewer points in 3 in a row, while allowing at least 120 points in 4 in a row. In fact, the average margin of defeat in the past 3 games is by a whopping 30.3 points. It’s awfully risky laying nearly 20 points in a professional game, but the Spurs enter this one on a seven-game win streak, while going 5-0 ATS in the past 5 games, and 6-0-1 ATS in the previous 7. Lay the points with San Antonio in this one.

Kings vs Spurs prediction: Spurs -18 (-110) at time of publishing. Playable to -19.

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Going on a 3-game losing streak and winning just once in 5 games couldn’t come at a worse time for the Philadelphia 76ers who are desperate to turn things around. Teams like the Magic and Heat are lurking right behind them in the East standings, The Sixers are holding on to that 6th seed for dear life. They simply cannot afford to lose games like the one they have on Saturday, as they head into New Orleans for a date with the Pelicans who will be without their leading scorer Trey Murphy III. Joel Embiid has already been ruled out with a lower leg injury and in a way that’s not necessarily a bad thing. At least the Sixers know they cannot rely on their big man, so they can now come up with a gameplan structured around the likes of Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe to carry them.

For the Pelicans not having their leading scorer is a massive handicap, when he’s out they’re winless in 5 games and with a point differential of -61 points. They do have a positive head-to-head record against Philadelphia, however most of the wins they got came in previous years when the health situation was a lot better than it is right now. Philly took the first meeting 124-114 some 3 weeks ago, the Pels had an unexpected hero in that game in Saddiq Bey who carried them with 34 points. The question is can he produce a similar performance on Saturday and can the Pelicans be competitive here?

My answer for both of those questions is – very unlikely. Philadelphia’s sense of urgency to win is far greater here, they’re 6-2 SU in 8 games vs Western Conference opponents. New Orleans has just 3 wins in 12 home games and they’ve failed to cover in 7 consecutive games vs East opponents. I’ll give the Sixers the benefit of the doubt, even if Embiid isn’t playing.

Philadelphia 76ers vs New Orleans Pelicans Predictions: 76ers -4.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Olivier Maxence Prosper scored 23 points to lead Memphis to a big win over the Utah Jazz in their first game post All-Star break. Don’t worry if you aren’t familiar with Prosper’s game, the Grizzlies are relying mostly on their lesser known players these days after deciding to trade away JJJ and tank the rest of this season. Saturday sees them travel to South Beach for a date with the Miami Heat, at a venue they’ve triumphed in 4 of their last 5 visits. Interestingly enough the Grizzlies are 8-4 SU over the last 12 meetings as well, but most of those wins came in years prior when the Grizz were actually competitive.

Miami celebrated the return of Tyler Herro from injury in a big way as they destroyed the Atlanta Hawks last night 128-97 on the road. It was their 2nd consecutive win and 3rd in four games, Heat fans are hoping they can now go on a run as we enter the final 25 or so games of the regular season. The 76ers in 6th are just 1 game ahead, even the Toronto Raptors in 5th aren’t too far away and a bad week or so by either one of those teams could flip the Heat’s situation dramatically. So it’s important to continue winning, especially against teams that aren’t really trying to do so. Miami has covered in 4 of 5 home games, they’re also 5-2 SU in 7 games vs Southwest Division teams.

Playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back shouldn’t discourage potential Miami Heat bettors here – the Heat have won 9 of 13 such games this season, including their last 3 games in a row. Memphis isn’t going anywhere with this group, they’ve won only once in 11 road games. I’ll go with the Heat in this one.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat Predictions: Heat -9.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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College hoops fans are in for a treat on Saturday as we have a massive marquee game on the schedule between arguably the 2 best teams in a loaded Big 12 Conference; the Arizona Wildcats and Houston Cougars. Kelvin Sampson’s team is coming off a demoralizing loss against Iowa State on Monday, while Arizona just picked up a much-needed victory at home against a wounded BYU team on Wednesday. Now, the Cougars are back at home and should be in a good position to bounce back following a very poor final 10 minutes against Iowa State in a game that they otherwise looked to be the better, more complete team. With that in mind, I’ll be against Arizona and backing Houston to lay the lumber and win by margin on Saturday. 

This is one of the better situational spots of the weekend, especially with Houston coming off a loss in a game that the Cougars certainly were clearly in a position to win in the second half. In fact, if not for some “Hilton Magic” over the last few minutes of the game, we would be talking about Houston as a worthy challenger to Michigan and Duke for the top team in the sport. Houston’s 3 defeats this season have come by a combined 10 points, which speaks to the quality of the Cougars and the fact that they could easily be undefeated if not for a few bounces here and there. Broadly speaking, Houston’s metrics tell the story (top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom), and the Cougars have a unique ability to drag any opponent in to the mud with them. Sampson’s team has also fared well against Tommy Lloyd and this Arizona program since the Wildcats joined the Big 12, having knocked off Arizona twice a season ago, despite not hosting either matchup.

In addition to the spot on paper, it’s also important to consider that Arizona forward Koa Peat will be out with an injury for Saturday’s contest. Peat is obviously a driving force within the Wildcats offense, and he’ll be sorely missed in a game where the dominance of Houston’s defense should be felt the most in the frontcourt battle and on the glass. Without Peat in the lineup, it’s reasonable to question the scoring depth and versatility of an Arizona team that has struggled when stepping up in class in recent Big 12 play, as we’ve seen in losses to Kansas and Texas Tech. Given its poor performance down the stretch in Monday’s loss, it’s safe to say that Houston should play to its very high standard at home against an Arizona team that has shown a few cracks in the armor, and is shorthanded for this matchup. Lay the points with the Cougars in this one. 

Arizona vs Houston prediction: Houston -4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to Houston -5.5

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The UConn Huskies will travel to Philadelphia on Saturday to play a Big East Conference game against the Villanova Wildcats. UConn is coming off their worst loss of the season in their last game when they fell to Creighton on their home floor. Creighton is not a projected tournament team but both UConn and Villanova are expected to make the Big Dance. Villanova is riding a five-game winning streak and are looking to avenge their overtime loss t0 UConn in the first matchup between these two programs. The Huskies are the slight favorite in round 2 of the season series and I am backing them to cover here.

I like UConn to cover the short spread in this one and bounce back from their shocking loss on Wednesday night. Most people have moved them off the 1-seed line following their loss and I expect them to be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Their aggressive and motivated play should lead to the Huskies dominating the glass against a Villanova team that is not a good defensive rebounding team. According to KenPom, UConn’s offense is ranked 66th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage while Villanova’s defense is ranked 252nd. The glass and the overall presence inside should be the difference, and I am kaying the points with UConn.

UConn vs Villanova prediction: UConn -1.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

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One of the games of the year will take place at Capital One Arena in the nation’s capital on Saturday evening when the Michigan Wolverines and Duke Blue Devils meet in a top-5 matchup. Michigan comes into this contest off a massive road win at Purdue, extending their win streak to 11 – the nation’s 6th-longest. Meanwhile, Duke has recovered nicely after blowing their game at rival North Carolina with 3 wins in a row, most recently taking care of business against Syracuse 101-64 on Monday. 

Duke seemingly matches up well with Michigan on paper, but I find myself pumping the brakes on the Blue Devils in this matchup for a couple reasons. First, I don’t love how they have shown a propensity to let off the gas late in their biggest games, which we saw in losses to Texas Tech and North Carolina and a near blown-lead against Florida – a game in which the Blue Devils led by 9 before Florida clawed back and lost by just 1 after taking a 2-point lead. 

Second, I question Duke’s ability to reach their offensive ceiling against Michigan’s top-rated defense. The Blue Devils operate heavily through Cam Boozer at the basket, sitting in the 94th percentile in both percentage of attempts at the rim and rim-attempt field goal percentage over their last 10 games. When Boozer doesn’t get what he wants, he likes to kick out to the corners for three-point attempts, where the Blue Devils are in the 89th percentile in shot rate over that same span. The issue is, Michigan is in the 97th percentile in opposing rim rate and in the 93rd percentile in opposing corner-three rate over their last 10 games, and it has been a season-long trend with this defense. They’re holding opponents under 60% on shots within 4.5 feet of the rim and under 30% on those corner threes throughout the entire year. 

On the other end of the floor, Duke is almost as good at negating action at the rim, but for my money, Michigan is more balanced offensively – not only from an attempts perspective, but a shot-making perspective. Not to mention, Duke’s defense regresses away from home more than Michigan’s despite a slightly weaker strength of schedule. In road and neutral games, Michigan is 1st nationally in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed and block rate. Moreover, the Wolverines are 10-0 in Quad 1 games. It’s Michigan for me in this potential Final Four preview.

Michigan vs Duke best bet: Michigan Wolverines ML (-142) at the time of publishing. Playable to -160 or -3. 

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