Caleb Wilfinger

The opening round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 8 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Earlier this month, the 9th-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide rallied from a 17-0 deficit against Oklahoma to knock off the Sooners and advance to the quarterfinal round, while the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers had a bye in the opening round following an undefeated regular season and a victory in the Big Ten title game. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day and advance to the semifinals? It’s almost time to find out. 

Heading into the season, I was very high on Alabama’s chances of capturing a national championship given all of the talent on the roster and the upside of what this team could be. However, the Crimson Tide have not exactly been the team I thought they would be prior to the campaign. With that in mind, it’s hard to ignore the value that we’re getting on Indiana to win Thursday’s contest by only a touchdown in a game where the Hoosiers should hold plenty of advantages. Not only do the Hoosiers have Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza on their side, but Indiana’s extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 3rd in points per drive) should see consistent success against an Alabama defense that has struggled at points against teams with strong passing attacks. The Crimson Tide are also operating at a significant disadvantage on special teams in this game, and that is certainly a factor that could rear its ugly head on Thursday. 

While the Alabama defense can be inconsistent, it’s still a solid unit across the board all things considered. However, the Crimson Tide have more questions on offense, if you can believe that. After all, Kalen DeBoer’s team has not been able to effectively run the ball all season long, and those struggles continued into their matchup with Oklahoma a few weeks ago. Jam Miller has been banged up, and even if he does end up playing in this one, it’s far from a guarantee that Alabama will suddenly see success on the ground against an Indiana defense that is 3rd in rushing success rate allowed and 2nd in opponent EPA per rush. Ty Simpson has struggled when pressured this season and the Hoosiers secondary just performed well against Ohio State’s outstanding trio of wide receivers, so I wouldn’t expect them to be intimidated by the Crimson Tide wideouts. Ultimately, I can only look toward laying the points with the top-ranked team in the nation.

Alabama vs Indiana prediction: Indiana -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to Indiana -7

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The opening round of the College Football Playoff is behind us, and there are now just 8 teams remaining in the pursuit of a National Championship. Earlier this month, the 5th-seeded Oregon Ducks made quick work of James Madison to advance to this round, while the 4th-seeded Texas Tech Red Raiders had a bye in the opening round following a 12-1 season and a routine victory in the Big 12 title game. Which of these teams will come out on top in the Orange Bowl on New Year’s Day and advance to the semifinals? It’s almost time to find out. 

Given that this is the shortest spread on the board for the CFP quarterfinal round, this has the feeling of a game that should come down to the wire. Therefore, it’s hard to find a ton of clear advantages for either side in Thursday’s game. However, Oregon has a few edges that it should be able to exploit in this matchup. For starters, the Ducks have the better quarterback in the game, and Dante Moore should also be getting back 2 of his top 3 wide receivers in Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. for this matchup. The jury is still out on if Evan Stewart is going to suit up on Thursday, but considering that Stewart hasn’t played for the entire season to this point, his absence isn’t anything new for Will Stein’s offense. With Moore and Bryant Jr. joining the dynamic and explosive Malik Benson in the lineup, this gives the Ducks a formidable trio of targets on the outside, to go along with All-American tight end Kenyon Sadiq at the tight end spot. Oregon is expected to have its top 3 running backs available for this matchup as well, so it’s hard not to be confident in the Ducks’ ability to manufacture offense in this one, even against an excellent Red Raiders defense. 

While Joey McGuire’s defense has been one of the top 5 units in the sport this season, Texas Tech’s issue in this game could be its offense. The Red Raiders certainly have a good offense — albeit one that has been the beneficiary of a somewhat weak schedule of opposing defenses — but there have been clear limitations for this group both on the ground and inside the red zone this season. After all, Texas Tech is just 50th in rushing success rate and 28th in points per drive on offense. In a game that is projected to be close throughout, just one or two failed red zone trips could decide the outcome. With that in mind, I can only side with Oregon to knock off the Red Raiders and advance to the College Football Playoff semifinals.

Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction: Oregon ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

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This is a shot in the dark compared to some of the favorites on the board, but it’s an educated wager on a quarterback that I could see making a major leap this fall. Devon Dampier electrified the Mountain West at New Mexico a season ago, racking up 31 total touchdowns (including a whopping 19 touchdowns on the ground) in a season that saw him take a major step forward from his freshman campaign.

Now, the 3rd-year starter steps into a promising situation with a Utah team that handed the reins over to former New Mexico offensive coordinator Jason Beck, a respected offensive mind and a surefire upgrade from what the Utes had last season. The Utes also upgraded their weapons on the perimeter via the transfer portal and get a pretty favorable schedule compared to a few other contenders in the Big 12. I’ve got Utah favored in 11 games and if the Utes are able to navigate their way through a couple of tricky conference games, they should certainly find themselves in the Big 12 title game come Championship Weekend. That alone gives this 60-1 ticket a ton of value, so Dampier is worth a sprinkle at this number.