Caleb Wilfinger

The Fighting Illini will make their way to Carver-Hawkeye Arena looking to make it five wins in a row. Illinois is ranked No.16 in the country and has earned that spot coming off a dominant 81-55 win over Rutgers in which they shot 44.1% from the floor. Things didn’t go exactly as planned for No. 19 Iowa in its last outing as the Hawkeyes fell 70-67 to Minnesota while shooting just 39.7%. Iowa has been strong at home this season, going 9-0, but this will be its toughest test yet and will require a strong performance if they want to keep this one close.  

Illinois has just three losses on the season, all coming against top-25 opponents in Alabama, UConn, and Nebraska. The Fighting Illini have a notable size advantage in this matchup and are shooting 47.6% from the floor on the year. Iowa will struggle to get rebounds in this matchup, which should open the door for plenty of second-chance opportunities for the Fighting Illini. Illinois is averaging 45.8 rebounds per game compared to Iowa’s 34.4. However, Iowa has shot the ball extremely well this season, making 51.9% of its shots. At the end of the day, Illinois’ rebounding capabilities and size will likely get Iowa into foul trouble. Look for Illinois to take care of business on the road and pick up the victory as the slight underdog. 

Illinois vs Iowa prediction: Illinois (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

It’s Sunday, which means we turn our attention to the AAC, as North Texas heads north to face Wichita State. Both teams come into the game struggling of late. The Shockers have lost two in a row, first to Charlotte in overtime and then to Rice at home. The Mean Green have lost 2 of their last 3, albeit to South Florida and Memphis. Both need the win to get back to .500 in conference play. I think the Shockers will take it at home, and I am cautiously optimistic with the number at -6.5.

If you are a fan of fast-paced basketball, you will want to look elsewhere. These are two of the slowest teams in the country, both ranking in the bottom 40 in terms of pace. That will make this game a grind, and it puts a high premium on offensive and defensive efficiency. The Shockers are far better on offense, while the Mean Green are the better defensive team. Neither team is very good from beyond the arc, but Wichita State is far better on the glass, especially on the offensive glass. North Texas will need to create a lot of turnovers to win this game, and the Shockers have not committed many turnovers this season. If Wichita takes care of the basketball and rebounds, they should pull away just enough to give us the cover here.

North Texas vs Wichita State Prediction: Wichita St -6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

UCF will look to avoid another upset as they get ready to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats. The Knights are coming off an 87-76 loss to Oklahoma State in which they shot just 37.5% from the floor. UCF will need a much better performance from Jordan Burks, who went 0-for-11 from the field, with his only three points coming from the charity stripe. This UCF team has far more offensive firepower than the Bearcats, but they’ll have their work cut out for them going up against Cincinnati’s defense. 

Cincinnati has lost back-to-back close games, losing to Houston by 7 and West Virginia by 2. Despite those two tough losses, the Bearcats have struggled against tough competition this season, and their most impressive win this year came against Dayton back in November. The Bearcats have four players averaging double digits, with Baba Miller leading the team with 12.7 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Miller does have the height advantage over Jamichael Stillwell, but this Bearcats team doesn’t have the depth and talent to compete with UCF. The Knights also have four players averaging double digits this season, and they have a slight rebounding advantage, which will be the difference maker here. Look for UCF to overpower the Bearcats in this matchup on their home court, making them my best bet of the day. 

Cincinnati vs UCF prediction: UCF -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

After getting an unexpected extra 2 days of rest following the postponement of their game against Chicago, the Miami Heat are back on the road in Indiana on Saturday night. The Heat are banged up just like any other NBA team at this point, so having those extra 48 hours to recoup some of their energy levels could prove to be valuable ahead of this game. The last time we saw them they didn’t do well in the loss to Minnesota, scoring just 94 points in a blowout loss. Scoring should be a lot easier vs the Pacers who are the league’s 6th worst defense in terms of efficiency. Indy also ranks just 29th in offensive rating.

Rick Carlisle has finally entered club 1000 after his Pacers ended a 13-game losing streak with a win over the Charlotte Hornets. The former Mavs boss waited since December 8th to get his 1000th win as a coach, to say that is has been a struggle this season would be an understatement. Beating the Heat will be a challenge in itself. The Pacers have dropped 7 games in a row at home, plus they are only 3-7 ATS in 10 home games against this team. The first meeting played just under 2 weeks ago saw them concede 142 points in a 26 point blowout loss.

On occasions this Pacers team can pull off upsets, but I do not believe that will be the case on Saturday vs Miami. The Heat are hungry to get back on track after a pair of losses to Minnesota. Winning games like this one is a priority if they want to remain in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference. I’ll go with the more rested Miami team here.

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Predictions: Heat -7.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

You can bet on our Heat vs Pacers pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

This matchup lines up cleanly when you focus on where and how these teams win games. The Clippers have been one of the worst road teams in the NBA, sitting at 4–14 away from Los Angeles. That weakness showed again recently when they were soundly beaten at Madison Square Garden, struggling to score efficiently or sustain defensive pressure in a double-digit loss to the Knicks. That’s notable because Detroit has played at a level this season where it’s fair to argue they’re at least comparable to, if not better than, New York. The worst part is they are playing at home.

Detroit in the Motor City has been outstanding. The Pistons are 14–3 at home, consistently defending with physicality, and winning the possession battle. Their success isn’t driven by hot shooting variance; it’s built on rebounding, rim pressure, and disciplined half-court defense — traits that translate night to night. That makes them a tough out for any visiting team, especially one that already struggles away from its own building. This isn’t a speculative play. The numbers, venue, and recent results all align. Detroit at home against a road-struggling Clippers team is exactly the type of spot to back the Pistons in a game they can in blowout fashion. Lay the price and don’t look back.

Clippers vs Pistons prediction: Pistons -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.

You can bet on our Clippers vs Pistons pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

You’ve probably heard the cliché “it’s hard to beat the same team twice.” Now apply it to a back-to-back rematch, and that challenge gets even tougher. Minnesota just beat Cleveland by nine two days ago in Minneapolis, and that’s what the market will remember. But this is not the same setup. That’s why Cleveland is favored here with all things considered.

For one, the venue flips to Cleveland, and that matters since the T-Wolves have a strong home court presence. Second, the first game wasn’t as it appears – it swung on one defining stretch. These teams were essentially deadlocked at halftime before Minnesota detonated in the third quarter with 43 points, while Cleveland managed only 22. That quarter created the separation. Outside of that frame, the Cavaliers more than held their own. In fact, they nearly came back, cutting a 19-point deficit late in the third down to four points with a minute left. That rally is significant because it shows Cleveland can solve Minnesota’s looks and win stretches of basketball against them.

The key here is immediacy: Cleveland doesn’t have to “learn lessons over a week.” They get the rematch immediately, at home, with clear adjustments. Take away one disastrous quarter and the Cavs win — possibly comfortably. Because of recency bias, Cleveland is easy to fade. That’s why the value sits on them even here as the chalk.

Timberwolves vs Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers -2.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -3.

You can bet on our Timberwolves vs Cavs pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

The Calgary Flames are set to take on the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on Saturday afternoon. After experiencing some brief offensive success last month, the Flames have reverted back to their woeful offensive ways. Calgary has scored just 6 total goals over its last 4 games, and ranks 31st in the league scoring just 2.55 goals per game on the season. That number drops to 2.13 when playing on the road. The Penguins aren’t the strongest defensive team out there, but given Calgary’s immense struggles to score goals on a consistent basis, it’s tough to expect the Flames to light up the scoreboard in this one.

The Penguins have been rolling offensively lately, and enter this game having scored 4+ goals in each game during their 6-game win streak. They are certainly hot, but they’ve also experienced their fair share of ups-and-downs this season. The Penguin power play has been rolling as well, but the Flames haven’t allowed a power play goal in 6 straight games. It’s also worth noting that these teams haven’t met since November 30, 2024, so don’t be surprised if the 1st period or so is spent getting a feel for each other’s game plan. Consider the under.

Flames vs Penguins prediction: Under 6 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Dallas Stars and San Jose Sharks clash for a Western Conference battle on Saturday afternoon. Dallas has beaten San Jose twice this season, and has outscored them 9-4. Can they complete the sweep? Here is our Stars vs. Sharks prediction.

Dallas has finally halted a six-game losing streak (0-3-3) after an impressive 4-1 win over the Washington Capitals, but they lost a lot of ground and have many more wins needed. After building a substantial cushion over many NHL teams, they are now tied with the Minnesota Wild for second in the division, and hold a minimal lead of four or less points against three other NHL teams. This game against San Jose presents a good opportunity for Dallas to earn two points, and I see them doing so. As fun as the young energy from the Sharks has been to watch, they are hosting a very strong and team in the league that should be hungry. Dallas has beaten San Jose twice in regulation this season for a reason, and I believe their strengths and maturity will generate yet another one, even with how well San Jose is playing lately (5-1-0 in their last 6 games).

Stars vs. Sharks prediction: Stars ML (-185) available at time of publishing. Playable to (-190).

You can bet on our Stars vs Sharks pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

The Detroit Red Wings will take on the Montreal Canadiens Friday night. These teams currently rank 2^nd and 3^rd in the Eastern Conference, which means we should be in for a good game. Both teams also come into this game winning 7 of their last 10 overall. With both teams playing so well, we need to take a look at the previous time they played. In their previous meeting, The Canadiens won 5-1 even though they were outshot 31-17. This could be a huge revenge spot for the Red Wings.

In the net for the Red Wings will be John Gibson. Gibson has looked great recently and has maintained a save percentage above 91% through his last 4 starts. These numbers could make it hard for a Canadiens team that ranks toward the bottom of the NHL with only 25.8 shots on goal per game. For the Canadiens, they are projected to start Jakub Dobes. Dobes struggled in his last start giving up 5 goals to the Carolina Hurricanes with an 80% save percentage. While there may be a clear edge in goalie, the Red wings also have a slight edge when it comes to goals against, shots for, power play scoring, and penalty kill on the season. While these are slight advantages, all together they can play a huge role in what should be a tight game. Overall, I am going to trust Gibson and the Red Wings to keep the Canadiens goals to a minimum and get the win.

Red Wings vs. Canadiens Prediction: Red Wings ML (+120) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

We kick off the early slate of college basketball with the DePaul Blue Demons vs the UConn Huskies. UConn is clearly the class of the Big East, although they did need overtime to survive at Providence earlier this week. DePaul is riding a modest 2-game winning streak, beating Georgetown and Xavier. DePaul is better than they have been in the past, but a trip to Storrs is just not likely to be successful. I’ll take the Huskies to cover -19.5.

These two teams faced off in December with UConn winning on the road, 72-54. I do not expect Depaul to do much better in this game. While DePaul is certainly better than they have been in recent years, this is still a team that struggles mightily on the offensive end of the floor. They play slowly, and they sit outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency. They consistently struggle to get above 60 points, and that would seem like the absolutely ceiling against a team like UConn with a top-5 defensive team. I just don’t see the path for the Blue Demons, particularly on offense, and I expect UConn to roll. It’s a big number, but it is the wiser play.

DePaul vs UConn Prediction: UConn -19.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

You can bet on our DePaul vs UConn pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

Kansas is ranked, but the number next to the name is doing more heavy lifting than the résumé. The Jayhawks already have four losses and have spent much of the season surviving rather than separating — two overtime escapes, including a one-point thriller at NC State, plus most recently a narrow four-point win over TCU. And when KU has stepped up in class against true national powers like North Carolina, Duke, and UConn, they didn’t simply lose — they got handled. That raises the question: is Kansas actually a Top 25 team, or are they being graded on brand?

West Virginia is unranked, but they’re not inferior. In fact, the Mountaineers could easily be sitting in Kansas’ exact position with slightly different late-game outcomes. WVU lost in overtime to Ohio State by one and suffered a brutal last-possession loss to Clemson in a game they largely controlled. Flip those results and West Virginia’s record shines and they are likely ranked. Flip Kansas’ OT wins into OT losses and the Jayhawks are unranked and a dog here. Now add in the scheduling spot: undefeated #3 Iowa State comes to Lawrence next. That’s a marquee game that can pull focus, even subconsciously. Meanwhile WVU has already won the last two meetings and will not be out-motivated by a “revenge” narrative. This sets up as a live dog with real value in a game they can win outright.

Kansas vs West Virginia prediction: West Virginia +4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +4

You can bet on our Kansas vs West Virginia pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

After their loss to Texas Tech, Duke may have gone 3-0, but it hasn’t been pretty. Duke narrowly escaped with an 85-79 victory over Georgia Tech, pulling away in the final minutes, sneaked by Florida State 91-87 thanks to solid free-throw shooting in the final seconds, and overcame a nine-point deficit after the first half against Louisville and walked away with an 84-73 victory. On Saturday, they’ll be set to face a SMU team that isn’t easy to defend. If the Blue Devils want to stay undefeated in conference play, they’ll need to step up their defensive presence in this one. 

SMU is averaging 90.1 points per game, slightly higher than Duke’s 87.1. The Mustangs have strong guard play with Boopie Miller, who averages 20.6 points per game, Jaron Pierre Jr.(17.9), and B.J. Edwards (13.5). SMU had a slow start in their last matchup against a tough Clemson defense, shooting just 37.3% from the floor, well below its season average of 49.8%. Duke’s defense hasn’t been strong in conference play, and I don’t think they’ll be able to slow down this SMU offense enough to win by double digits. Look for the Mustangs to create issues for Duke on defense, keeping this game much closer than Duke would like. 

SMU vs Duke prediction: SMU +12 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

You can bet on our SMU vs Duke pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!