Caleb Wilfinger

Wednesday is another opportunity for Victor Wembanyama and his Spurs to get closer to that number one seed in the Western Conference. With 9 wins in a row this is the hottest team in the league right now and a win here combined with a loss by OKC at Detroit could get the Spurs within just 2 games of the top spot. These two met in the first week of the season back in late October and the Spurs got the job done without any issues 121-103 at home, with Wemby delivering a monster performance with 24 points and 15 rebounds on just 8 field goal attempts. And that’s the scenario I’m expecting in this game as well. The Raptors just aren’t built to handle a player of Wemby’s caliber at the center position.

This will be the Raptors’ 11th game played with no rest, as they just lost to the OKC Thunder last night by 9 points at home. In the first 10 such games this team has only 4 wins, two of which came against the Bulls and Kings who aren’t exactly good measuring sticks. Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl being on the injury report makes it all that more difficult, the Spurs wing players could have a field day scoring the ball if Barnes is unable to go here. Toronto has had issues in home games all year long, they’re just 2 games over the .500 mark at the Scotiabank Arena, while over their last 9 games there they’ve covered just 3 times. Against teams from the Southwest Division they’re just 1-8 straight up in 9 games played.

Having the rest advantage and a mismatch at the center position in Wemby, it’s hard not to take the Spurs here. During this 9-game win streak they have the NBA’s best Net Rating of +16 points, ranking 1st in offense and 4th in defense in terms of efficiency. In 7 games on the road they’ve covered the spread 6 times, while in head-to-head meetings they’re 4-1 straight up and against the spread in 5 games played. Lay the points with San Antonio.

Spurs vs Raptors prediction: Spurs -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Milwaukee Bucks were in action last night. They both managed to pick up wins, with tonight’s hosts putting on an offensive show in the process, dropping 128-points. Both teams on the back end of a back-to-back set so that should see a drop in defensive effort from these sides. Both also go into the game relatively healthy too with Max Strus absent for the Cavaliers and Taurean Price and most likely Giannis Antetokounmpo out for the Bucks. This is also the 3rd meeting between them, with one of the previous games surpassing the combined 228-point mark.

The Bucks roster is not put together to grind out wins in low scoring games. They have a bunch of guards like Ryan Rollins, Cam Thomas and Kevin Porter Jr. who can explode offensively at any moment while also being far from outstanding on defense. It is no surprise then that over the last 10 games they are 7th in offensive rating and in the bottom 10 of the league in defensive rating. They do their scoring from the outside too, with the team just 25th during that stretch in points in the paint. That should help them nullify the effectiveness of the Cavaliers defensive anchor Evan Mobley, who is a great rim protector. With the Cavaliers being 2nd in offensive rating themselves during that stretch, expect them to exploit the shortcomings of the Bucks here. The over looks like the play to make as a result.

Cavaliers vs Bucks prediction: Over 227.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 229.  

The Boston Celtics enter this marquee matchup as one of the hottest teams in basketball, winning 9 of their last 10 games and stringing together dominant defensive performances. In six of their last 12 contests, they’ve held opponents under 100 points — a testament to their perimeter discipline, rim protection, and ability to control tempo. Boston continues to rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency while pairing that with balanced scoring and strong three point shooting. From a betting perspective, they’ve thrived in these spots: the Celtics are 10-5 ATS as underdogs this season and an impressive 6-3 ATS on the second night of back to backs. That speaks to their depth and conditioning, as well as their ability to execute late in tight games. Even on the road in altitude, this group has shown it can stay composed and dictate stretches with half court execution.

The Denver Nuggets have also played at a high level since the return of Nikola Jokic, with their offense humming at over 120 points per game during recent stretches. However, inconsistency has crept in defensively, and they’re coming off a frustrating loss to Golden State in a game where the Warriors were without Stephen Curry — a missed opportunity that raises questions about focus. Denver has been strong ATS with two or more days of rest, so something has to give in this matchup of positive trends. Still, Boston looks like the more cohesive and locked in unit right now. In what should be a competitive, playoff style game, grabbing the points with the hotter team provides value.

Celtics vs Nuggets prediction: Celtics +3.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +2.5.

Florida’s hot form continued on Saturday with a 94-75 win at Ole Miss, which extended their win streak to 7 games – the nation’s 8th-longest. The Gators will face their 2nd road game in as many outings on Wednesday when they travel to Austin to play a Texas team coming off a 91-80 road loss at Georgia. Prior to that, the Longhorns had won 5 straight and 6 of 7. They are 8-6 in conference play, holding on to hope of winning out and securing a top-4 seed in the SEC Tournament. However, that’s going to be a difficult task against a Florida team that is 12-2 in conference and has dropped 90+ points more often than not since the holidays. 

Texas’ strengths are found on the offensive end and on the glass. The Horns are 6th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, as well at top-15 in offensive rebounding rate. Meanwhile, they get to the line at the 2nd-highest rate in the country. In conference play, they are 2nd in efficiency and effective field goal percentage, leading the league in three-point shooting despite low volume. Moreover, they are 4th in offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate. The issue is, Florida shuts all those avenues down. The Gators are top-5 nationally and 1st in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency, while sitting 11th and 1st, respectively, in effective field goal percentage allowed. Their elite size neutralizes Texas’ strength on the glass, as they rank top-3 nationally in offensive rebounding rate allowed, and the Gators play very disciplined on the defensive end – sending SEC opponents to the line at the 2nd-lowest rate. 

When the Longhorns have the ball, they love to attack through transition, off the dribble and in the mid-range with Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark and Dailyn Swain. They also love to operate through Swain and Matas Vokietaitis in ball screens and post-ups, but they will be met with much resistance by a Gator defense that is among the nation’s best against those types of actions. Per Hoop-Explorer, Florida is in the 87th percentile or better against all of those plays defensively sans opposing dribble jumpers, but Texas is going to need more than that to stick around here – especially considering the Longhorns’ defensive ineptitude around the rim and their lack of discipline in the foul department. For reference, Texas is 301st nationally in free throw rate allowed, which means the Longhorns are likely to give the Gators a healthy amount of free points at the line. Furthermore, Texas has really struggled against its best defensive opponents this year, going 2-6 SU against top-50 defenses per KenPom. Against top-20 defenses like Florida’s, Texas is 0-4 SU with a double-digit average margin of defeat. Meanwhile, Florida is on a 6-0 ATS run as a road favorite.

Florida vs Texas prediction: Florida Gators -6.5 (-105) at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.

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One of the biggest games on the Wednesday college basketball slate comes in Storrs, Connecticut, where the UConn Huskies will host St. John’s in a massive Big East rematch of a meeting we just saw a few weeks ago. In that first matchup between these teams, St. John’s was the more aggressive unit by far, as the Red Storm took it to the Huskies in a fairly convincing 81-72 win at Madison Square Garden. UConn stumbled again a week ago at home against Creighton, but the Huskies bounced back nicely with a very solid performance in a win at Villanova over the weekend. Danny Hurley’s group hasn’t always been at their best in conference play, but his teams have traditionally rounded into form heading into March, and that should once again be the case on Wednesday.

Even after removing the obvious revenge angle and Hurley’s track record when facing an opponent a second time in the same season, this should be a chance for UConn’s defense to assert its will and establish control of the game early on. After all, St. John’s offense is barely ranked inside the top 50 in adjusted efficiency per KenPom, and the Red Storm did a ton of damage in that first meeting around the basket. I have full confidence in Hurley and his staff to come up with a much better gameplan this time around, one that limits St. John’s effectiveness inside and forces the Red Storm to be a perimeter jump-shooting team. UConn also turned the ball over 15 times in that previous matchup, so if the Huskies are able to avoid those self-inflicted wounds, that should limit St. John’s ability to get key buckets in transition and force Rick Pitino’s team to consistently score in the halfcourt against a UConn defense that is 12th in adjusted efficiency and 8th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Finally, the Huskies should have healthier versions of Braylon Mullins and Alex Karaban on the floor in this one, so let’s lay the points with the home team on Wednesday.

St. John’s vs UConn prediction: UConn -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to UConn -5.5

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The key game of the Mountain West season is tonight, as the Utah State Aggies travel to face the San Diego State Aztecs. Utah State has a one-game lead in the standings, and a win here would all but lock up the regular season crown with 3 games remaining. If the Aztecs win, they force a tie for the stretch run. Utah State won the first meeting, 71-66, and prior to a loss at Nevada over the weekend, the Aggies had won 8 straight. The Aztecs have dropped two in a row (Grand Canyon, at Colorado St), and with a couple of tough road games remaining, this one is key. Still, I think Utah St is the better team, and even with the tough road assignment, I am taking the Aggies as short underdogs here.

The first matchup went more or less according to form. The difference in the game was a handful of offensive rebounds for the Aggies that generated a few extra shots and an advantage in points in the paint (which the metrics would expect). Both teams shot poorly from deep. If anyone is going to improve on that, it is likely to be the Aggies. Both teams took care of the ball well, which is a significant factor because both defenses tend to generate a lot of turnovers. Home court advantage is significant, but the season-long metrics suggest that Utah State has room to improve on the first matchup, and that has me leaning toward the Aggies winning this rematch. We are catching a point right now, but if this line flips during the day, that’s okay too.

Utah State vs San Diego State prediction: Utah State +1 (-120) available at the time of publishing. Playable to Utah State -1.5.

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