Caleb Wilfinger
Deputy EditorCaleb's Picks
Jacksonville has made an impressive jump in its first season with Liam Coen as head coach, clinching its first playoff berth since 2022. The Jaguars extended their winning streak to 6 games after an impressive 34-20 victory at Denver last Sunday as 3.5-point underdogs. During this hot stretch, the Jags have scored at least 34 points 4 times and have topped the 25-point mark all six games. In fact, Jacksonville has posted more than 25 points in eight consecutive games after getting held to 19 points in a pair of October losses to the Rams and Seahawks. In the last 2 weeks, QB Trevor Lawrence has tossed 8 touchdown passes and is riding a 6-game streak with multiple TD passes.
The Colts (8-7) have seen their dreams of a division title, much less a playoff spot crumble over the last two months. Indianapolis leapt out to an incredible 7-1 record in Daniel Jones’ first season as starting QB of the Colts. However, the Colts have lost six of the past seven games and lost Jones for the season with a broken fibula suffered in a 36-19 defeat at Jacksonville in Week 14. Indianapolis turned to 44-year old Philip Rivers to try and save its season, but the Colts have lost in his first two starts to the Seahawks and 49ers.
Rivers helped the Colts cover as 13-point road underdogs in an 18-16 defeat two weeks ago, but he threw for 120 yards. He looked better in Monday’s 48-27 blowout loss to San Francisco, posting 277 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, but the Colts’ defense had its worst performance of the season in their second home setback. This has been a series dominated by the home team, as the Colts are 4-1 in the past five against the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Jacksonville is the team to beat in the AFC South, but Indianapolis should give them a run here looking for revenge for the loss a few weeks ago.
Jaguars vs Colts prediction: Colts +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +6
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To close out our Vikings vs Lions SGP, we’re going to take Amon-Ra St. Brown to clear his receiving yards prop on Thursday. While the Detroit offense has been inconsistent in recent weeks, one constant has been the production of St. Brown in the leading role. St. Brown and Jared Goff have established a great rapport with each other over the last few seasons, and the top Lions wideout should be able to see plenty of success in an indoor, pass-friendly environment on Thursday. St. Brown has cleared this number in 3 of the last 4 games and in 9 games this season, so let’s bank on that trend to continue in this one.
For the first leg of our Lions vs Vikings Same Game Parlay, we’re going to be backing the hosts with the points. This is a terrible situational spot for the Lions, as Detroit is coming off a brutal loss in the final seconds at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. Now, the Lions playoff aspirations are on life support and it doesn’t appear that Detroit is going to be able to come back from this crushing defeat. Therefore, while the Vikings are dealing with a number of key injuries on the offensive line and at quarterback, our expert is just fine fading a sputtering Lions team that is just 4-6 over their last 10 contests. Look for this matchup to be decided by one possession on Thursday.
This is an instance where I’m bullish on a lower-scoring game than what the market is projecting, and it all starts with Washington’s situation on offense. Even though the Cowboys defense has struggled, the secondary is catching a major break by facing a Commanders passing attack that likely won’t have much juice with Johnson under center. Conversely, the Cowboys offense is still potent, but Dallas has leaned on its ground attack moreso in recent weeks compared what we saw earlier in the season. This number is just under the key of 51, but we’ll rely on Dallas to sit on the ball late in the game and grind this game out on the road.
The Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) are the only team to clinch a division title so far, wrapping up the NFC East after a 29-18 triumph at Washington last Saturday. The defending champions have rebounded nicely from a 3-game slide to win their last two games by double-digits, although they faced the Commanders and Raiders, who are not going to the playoffs. Philadelphia travels to Buffalo on Sunday seeking its 6th road victory of the season as the Eagles are listed as an underdog for the first time since last season’s Super Bowl.
The Bills (11-4) may not win their 6th straight AFC East crown, but Buffalo has shown it will be dangerous in the postseason. Buffalo is back home after rallying to shock New England two weeks ago and holding off Cleveland last Sunday to extend its winning streak to 4 games. The Bills were in a prime position to cover as 10.5-point road favorites last week against the Browns, leading 23-10 in the third quarter before Cleveland scored the final 10 points. Since Week 6, the Bills have not gone consecutive weeks without covering the spread, posting a 4-0 ATS mark in this situation.
The Eagles allowed the Giants to score 34 points in a Week 6 loss, but Philadelphia has not given up more than 24 points in nine consecutive games. The Bills have yielded at least 30 points in 4 of the past 6 games, including 32 points to the Buccaneers and 34 points to the Bengals. Buffalo has won in each of its 2 opportunities as a favorite of 3 points or less, but this is a short number against a Philadelphia team that has already clinched a division title.
Eagles vs Bills prediction: Eagles +1 available at time of publishing. Playable to Eagles ML (-110)
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As previously mentioned, this is a difficult game to handicap, given the injuries and lack of motivation for both sides. With that in mind, the Under is the only way our expert can look in this game, especially now factoring in the quarterback situation for the Vikings. Ultimately, regardless of the motivation angle at play here, Detroit shouldn’t need to score much to outpace a Minnesota offense led by Max Brosmer — who was dreadful against the Seahawks a few weeks ago — and the Lions should look to keep the ball on the ground and grind out scoring drives in a matchup that shouldn’t produce many explosive plays.
The Dallas run game has been a lot better than what most were expecting heading into this season, and Javonte Williams has found himself within this Cowboys offense. The lead running back has racked up 10 touchdowns on the season, and his previous matchup against the Commanders could certainly be instructive for how Thursday’s meeting could shake out. Williams tallied 19 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting back on October 19, and it would be hard to see Williams not getting at least a handful of carries around the goal line in this one.
For the first leg of our Cowboys vs Commanders Same Game Parlay, we’re going to be backing the visitors by laying the points. Each of these teams has struggled for consistency on a week-to-week basis, as the Dallas defense has proven to be a massive weakness, while the Commanders have struggled on both sides of the ball due to injuries and poor play. However, even though it’s hard to trust the Cowboys on the road, the Commanders are clearly handicapped with third-string quarterback Josh Johnson at the controls of an offense that is already struggling. On the other side, the Cowboys offense is one of the better units in the NFC, and Dallas should see plenty of success against this porous Washington pass defense.
This is a shot in the dark compared to some of the favorites on the board, but it’s an educated wager on a quarterback that I could see making a major leap this fall. Devon Dampier electrified the Mountain West at New Mexico a season ago, racking up 31 total touchdowns (including a whopping 19 touchdowns on the ground) in a season that saw him take a major step forward from his freshman campaign.
Now, the 3rd-year starter steps into a promising situation with a Utah team that handed the reins over to former New Mexico offensive coordinator Jason Beck, a respected offensive mind and a surefire upgrade from what the Utes had last season. The Utes also upgraded their weapons on the perimeter via the transfer portal and get a pretty favorable schedule compared to a few other contenders in the Big 12. I’ve got Utah favored in 11 games and if the Utes are able to navigate their way through a couple of tricky conference games, they should certainly find themselves in the Big 12 title game come Championship Weekend. That alone gives this 60-1 ticket a ton of value, so Dampier is worth a sprinkle at this number.
Caleb's Parlays
For the first leg of our Lions vs Vikings Same Game Parlay, we’re going to be backing the hosts with the points. This is a terrible situational spot for the Lions, as Detroit is coming off a brutal loss in the final seconds at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers at home. Now, the Lions playoff aspirations are on life support and it doesn’t appear that Detroit is going to be able to come back from this crushing defeat. Therefore, while the Vikings are dealing with a number of key injuries on the offensive line and at quarterback, our expert is just fine fading a sputtering Lions team that is just 4-6 over their last 10 contests. Look for this matchup to be decided by one possession on Thursday.
As previously mentioned, this is a difficult game to handicap, given the injuries and lack of motivation for both sides. With that in mind, the Under is the only way our expert can look in this game, especially now factoring in the quarterback situation for the Vikings. Ultimately, regardless of the motivation angle at play here, Detroit shouldn’t need to score much to outpace a Minnesota offense led by Max Brosmer — who was dreadful against the Seahawks a few weeks ago — and the Lions should look to keep the ball on the ground and grind out scoring drives in a matchup that shouldn’t produce many explosive plays.
To close out our Vikings vs Lions SGP, we’re going to take Amon-Ra St. Brown to clear his receiving yards prop on Thursday. While the Detroit offense has been inconsistent in recent weeks, one constant has been the production of St. Brown in the leading role. St. Brown and Jared Goff have established a great rapport with each other over the last few seasons, and the top Lions wideout should be able to see plenty of success in an indoor, pass-friendly environment on Thursday. St. Brown has cleared this number in 3 of the last 4 games and in 9 games this season, so let’s bank on that trend to continue in this one.
For the first leg of our Cowboys vs Commanders Same Game Parlay, we’re going to be backing the visitors by laying the points. Each of these teams has struggled for consistency on a week-to-week basis, as the Dallas defense has proven to be a massive weakness, while the Commanders have struggled on both sides of the ball due to injuries and poor play. However, even though it’s hard to trust the Cowboys on the road, the Commanders are clearly handicapped with third-string quarterback Josh Johnson at the controls of an offense that is already struggling. On the other side, the Cowboys offense is one of the better units in the NFC, and Dallas should see plenty of success against this porous Washington pass defense.
This is an instance where I’m bullish on a lower-scoring game than what the market is projecting, and it all starts with Washington’s situation on offense. Even though the Cowboys defense has struggled, the secondary is catching a major break by facing a Commanders passing attack that likely won’t have much juice with Johnson under center. Conversely, the Cowboys offense is still potent, but Dallas has leaned on its ground attack moreso in recent weeks compared what we saw earlier in the season. This number is just under the key of 51, but we’ll rely on Dallas to sit on the ball late in the game and grind this game out on the road.
The Dallas run game has been a lot better than what most were expecting heading into this season, and Javonte Williams has found himself within this Cowboys offense. The lead running back has racked up 10 touchdowns on the season, and his previous matchup against the Commanders could certainly be instructive for how Thursday’s meeting could shake out. Williams tallied 19 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting back on October 19, and it would be hard to see Williams not getting at least a handful of carries around the goal line in this one.