Caleb Wilfinger

We’ve got an intriguing showdown on our hands in Week 11 as the Baltimore Ravens are set to take on the Browns in a game that figures to be an old-school AFC North battle in Cleveland. While the Ravens are not exactly back to where they were prior to Lamar Jackson’s injury in September, Baltimore is certainly looking like a playoff team since Jackson’s return to the lineup. And while the dynamic multiple-time MVP missed practice earlier this week with a sore knee, he’s expected to be a full go in a game against a bad Browns team that should be overmatched in this one.

We know that the Ravens have the tools to dominate at the line of scrimmage, and the weather conditions should also favor Baltimore to keep the ball on the ground and grind out scoring drives against a Cleveland defense that has been fading a bit in recent weeks. The forecast is also troubling for Cleveland’s offense on the other side of things, as Dillon Gabriel has already played in high winds this season and looked terrible in the process, so it wouldn’t shock me if Baltimore nabbed a couple of turnovers in a spot where the rookie quarterback can be expected to struggle. Gabriel was also sacked 6 times a week ago and the Ravens defense has been steadily improving in recent weeks, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. All signs point to the Ravens doing enough on offense to build a lead, and I can’t trust a struggling rookie to keep this game within the number. 

Ravens vs Browns prediction: Ravens -7.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

You can bet on our Ravens vs Browns pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

In a week full of compelling matchups, one of the most interesting games of the week comes in Buffalo, where the Bills are set to host the Buccaneers in a game that could go a long way to decide the fortunes of both teams in terms of playoff seeding in their respective conferences. Both teams are coming off pretty demoralizing losses, with the Bills dropping a game to the Dolphins as significant favorites a week ago, while the Bucs lost at home to a red-hot Patriots team, which marked the second defeat in the last 3 games for Tampa Bay. While this would ordinarily be a spot where I look to back the Bills at home — especially with Buffalo coming off a very poor performance in Miami — I can’t quite get there with this number given the matchup at hand and how the injury report looks for Sean McDermott’s side.

For starters, the Bills offense almost entirely centers around the ground game under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and we just saw Miami be able to successfully bottle that up last week. When the Bills can’t get ahead of the chains early, it becomes a lot harder for Josh Allen and company to consistently convert in obvious passing situations on 3rd and long. The Buccaneers have a solid matchup edge in this game given that they have a top 3 rush defense in the league per success rate, while also sitting at 4th in rush DVOA on defense. Tampa Bay’s weakness is defending the pass, but given that the Bills might be without Dalton Kincaid — who has really become Allen’s top target in recent weeks — Buffalo might not have many answers against a Buccaneers defensive front that likes to blitz and can even get pressure on opposing quarterbacks by only rushing 4 guys. On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense is extremely banged up after suffering a few more losses a week ago. With that in mind, even though Baker Mayfield has come back down to earth in recent weeks, the Bucs should be able to move the ball enough to stay within one possession in this one. Points could be at a premium here, so I’ll take a shot on the ‘dog.

Buccaneers vs Bills prediction: Buccaneers +6 available at time of publishing. Playable to Bucs +5.5

You can bet on our Bucs vs Bills pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

We’ve got a Big Ten battle in the Pacific Northwest on Saturday when the Washington Huskies play host to the Purdue Boilermakers in Seattle. This is a good spot to back a Washington team that just had its worst performance of the season a week ago against Wisconsin, a game in which the Huskies only scored 10 points and lost as a double-digit favorite. However, Jedd Fisch’s team did outgain Wisconsin and was minus-2 in turnovers in a game that was played in pretty adverse weather conditions. that result tracks with how the campaign has gone for Washington, as the Huskies have one of most extreme discrepancies in home and road performances of any team in the country this season. While the Huskies haven’t been great on the road by any means this season, this is still one of the best home field advantages in the sport and it should claim another victim on Saturday.

This is a spot where I have real matchup concerns for a Purdue team that has struggled defensively all season long. After all, this is a Purdue defense that is 122nd in success rate allowed, and the Washington offense is one of the top 10 units in the sport (5th in success rate, 7th in quality drive rate, 6th in third down success rate). The Huskies have been a machine at home, and I’m of the belief that Demond Williams Jr, Jonah Coleman, Denzel Boston and company should be able to generate success against an Purdue defense that is 130th in quality drive rate allowed and 103rd in points per drive allowed. While Washington’s defense isn’t elite by any means, the Purdue offense has been extremely poor in recent weeks, so I don’t think the Boilermakers will be able to keep up with a Huskies team that has as good of an offense as almost any team across the nation when playing at home. Ultimately, I’ll lean on the hosts to win and cover this number in what should be a blowout in Seattle. 

Purdue vs Washington prediction: Washington -16.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number. 

You can bet on our Purdue vs Washington pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!

Regardless of how the Jets offense approaches this contest, they’ll need to have some success on the ground. On that front, it’s hard to ignore the value we’re getting with Breece Hall to find the end zone at the current odds. After all, the Iowa State product is in the midst of a solid bounce-back season and he’s been in especially good form in recent weeks, racking up over 200 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns over the last couple of games. While the Patriots’ rush defense has been very strong in the red zone this season, Hall should get plenty of touches both on the ground and out of the backfield in the passing game near the goal line. With that in mind, let’s back the Jets’ top running back to find paydirt on the road well into plus-money odds.

We have a Big Ten tilt between a couple of unfamiliar foes on Friday as the Oregon Ducks are set to host the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a game that doesn’t project to be all that close on paper. However, even though I’m not all that high on this Minnesota team, I’m much more inclined to back the Gophers on the road in what is one of the best situational spots on the board in this Week 12 slate. On one side, the Gophers are in the midst of a solid season, having just qualified for bowl eligibility after defeating Michigan State on November 1. Now, with Minnesota coming off a much-needed bye week prior to this extended road trip, PJ Fleck should have his team prepared to play in what is a natural get-up spot for a rested and ready Gophers side. 

Conversely, the Ducks are in a pretty brutal letdown spot after knocking off Iowa on the road in what was arguably the most important win of its season to this point. Now, Dan Lanning’s side will have to travel all the way to the northwest for a bizarre matchup against a new conference foe that they couldn’t possibly care all that much about, all while staring at a massive potential College Football Playoff elimination game against USC on deck. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Ducks come out pretty flat in a spot in which they could still be a bit hungover from last week’s victory in dramatic fashion at Kinnick Stadium. Oregon certainly looks to be one of the 10-12 best teams in the nation to this point, but it’s also worth considering that the Ducks were extremely banged up a week ago and could be without as many as 5 starters on offense this week if those injuries carry over. With that in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Oregon approached this game with a bit more trepidation and kept things pretty close to the vest. As a result, the Gophers could certainly keep things within the number in a game with a fairly low total, so I’ll certainly take the points with Minnesota on Friday. 

Minnesota vs Oregon prediction: Minnesota +26.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 25.5

You can bet on our Minnesota vs Oregon pick with BetMGM, where right now new users can activate your new BetMGM account ⚡ and receive $150 in bonus bets INSTANTLY if your first $10+ wager is a winner!