Caleb Wilfinger

While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games that should have your attention is a big time contest in the AAC, where the East Carolina Pirates will visit the UTSA Roadrunners in a compelling clash that should produce plenty of fireworks. This is one of the better spots of the Week 13 slate, and I intend to take advantage of it by backing the Roadrunners to win as short underdogs at home.

On one side, East Carolina is in the midst of a very good run of form and the Pirates are coming off one of their biggest wins in years against Memphis in a game that thrust them back into the AAC title race and potentially even an outside shot at the College Football Playoff if a couple of dominoes fall in the Sun Belt and Mountain West. East Carolina’s offense has steadily improved as the season has gone on, as quarterback Katin Houser has now thrown for nearly 3,000 yards while tossing 15 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions. However, this is a brutal road trip for a Pirates team that has struggled away from home against quality competition this season, and has had trouble with UTSA in the Alamodome in years past. Given the enormity of last week’s win, don’t be surprised if East Carolina comes out a bit slow in what could be a flat spot for Blake Harrell’s team. 

As for the hosts, UTSA has been an up-and-down bunch all season long, but the Roadrunners are likely a bit better than their record given how a few of their results look in hindsight. Historically, Jeff Traylor has been an excellent head coach against the spread in November and his team certainly looks like they’ve turned a corner offensively in recent weeks, with Owen McCown and company rolling through the likes of Tulane and Charlotte at home. Where UTSA has gotten into trouble has been against psychical and fast teams on the road (USF and North Texas come to mind), but that’s not the situation that they’ll see in this one. The Roadrunners pass defense is still an issue but they should be able to slow down the East Carolina ground attack and keep the Pirates behind the chains at points in this contest. And because they play at an extremely fast pace, East Carolina has not shown that it can consistently grind out close wins, particularly away from home. Given the fact that I expect this one to be a close contest from start to finish, there’s some inherent value on the home underdog on Saturday. 

East Carolina vs UTSA prediction: UTSA ML (+120) available at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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