Caleb Wilfinger

This Week 13 matchup between the Vikings and Seahawks is a pretty significant mismatch on paper, and it’s hard to see this imbalance not translating to the field. While the Seahawks failed to cover as double digit favorites against the Titans a week ago, that was more of a situation where Seattle took its foot off the gas in the second half and let Tennessee back into the game. It never felt like the Seahawks were not in control of that game, and that should once again be the case in this matchup against a reeling Vikings team that is searching for anything from the quarterback position.

Max Brosmer is taking over for J.J. McCarthy under center this week and while there’s potential for the Minnesota passing game to improve, it’s hard to see the Vikings seeing much success against a Seattle defense that is a top 5 unit in EPA per play and success rate allowed this season. The Seahawks are dealing with some injuries on defense, but considering that they just held down an elite Rams offense on the road a few weeks ago, there should be no concerns with how Mike Macdonald’s group will approach this week’s matchup. On the other side, the Vikings defense has quietly struggled in recent weeks, and those issues should continue on the road against Sam Darnold and a Seattle passing attack that is humming at the moment. Let’s lay the points with Seattle at home.

Vikings vs Seahawks prediction: Seahawks -10.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -11. 

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The AFC South is quietly shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions in football as we near the final month of the NFL regular season, and Sunday’s game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans could have massive implications in this division and playoff race within the AFC. After a horrible stretch of play for the majority of the season, the Tennessee Titans have finally found some life against the spread in recent weeks. In fact, Tennessee has now covered the spread as an underdog in 3 consecutive games, including sneaking through the back door against the Seahawks a week ago. The Titans no longer look like the worst team in the conference and this week’s matchup should be noticeably easier for Cam Ward after having to face the elite Seattle defense a week ago.

On the other side, while the Jaguars are winning games, it certainly hasn’t been pretty. In fact, you could certainly make the case that Jacksonville is the team most due for some regression across the NFL to this point. Trevor Lawrence continues to struggle mightily and with a couple of key offensive pieces not 100% healthy heading into this week, it’s hard to have confidence in Jacksonville to win by at least a touchdown on the road. Tennessee just put up a pretty feisty performance against the Texans at home a few weeks ago, so let’s go back to that well on Sunday.

Jaguars vs Titans prediction: Titans +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +6

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One of the more consequential games in the Big Ten comes in the Pacific Northwest, where the Washington Huskies are set to host the Oregon Ducks in a massive rivalry matchup on Saturday. I’ve written about this Oregon team extensively this season, and while the Ducks were very impressive in a double-digit victory over USC a week ago, there were still plenty of opportunities for the Trojans to cover that game in Autzen Stadium, and the margin of victory was probably a bit inflated compared to what it should have been. After all, USC was missing its two best players on defense and the Trojans are still a vastly inferior road team compared to how their offense functions at home. It still took multiple turnovers and a punt return for a touchdown for the Ducks to get to the window, which has inflated this line just a tad too much for my liking this week. It’s important to remember that Dan Lanning’s team has been extremely pretty banged up for the last few weeks and will likely be without a number of key players on offense this week, including freshman wide receiver Dakorien Moore and multiple starters on the offensive line. With that in mind, even though Dante Moore was lights out a week ago, it’s hard to see Oregon’s offense having the same level of success on the road in what is sure to be an extremely hostile environment.

As for the hosts, Washington has been a team that I love backing in Seattle, as the Huskies have one of the most extreme discrepancies in home and road performances of any team in the country this season. Jedd Fisch’s group is rarely an underdog at home, and this is a spot where Husky Stadium could claim another victim, especially given all of Oregon’s injuries heading into this game. Washington has been able to work through its injuries and get a bit healthier coming off a few blowout victories, as star running back Jonah Coleman and wide receiver Denzel Boston should be back in the lineup on Saturday. That makes this offense extremely dangerous, especially with Demond Williams playing some of his best football of the season at the moment. Most importantly, the offensive line should be healthy for the first time in well over a month for a Washington team that can score with anybody at home when healthy. Most of the Huskies’ biggest games have been on the road this season, but Saturday’s contest presents an opportunity for an upset that could shake up the College Football Playoff picture. Don’t be surprised if Lanning has to battle with some old demons against a hated rival on Saturday.

Oregon vs Washington prediction: Washington +7.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to Washington +7 (-110).

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While there are plenty of games that should captivate college football fans across the nation on Saturday, one of the more under the radar games that still has some value comes in the AAC, where the Army Black Knights will visit the UTSA Roadrunners in a game that features a pair of teams trending in different directions at the moment. Last week, I was all over UTSA in what was one of the best spots of the Week 13 slate, and I’m going back to the well with the Roadrunners to win at home once again. 

On one side, Army is in the midst of a poor run of form against the spread, as the Black Knights have failed to cover in back-to-back games and are just 4-6 against the number for the season. Furthermore, Jeff Monken’s team is coming off a brutal loss to Tulsa at home, in which Army blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost on a field goal in the final seconds. Now, they’ll have to embark on a brutal road trip to take on a UTSA team that has yet to lose a game at home since joining the American Conference. Last year’s Army team was one of the best in recent program history, and even that Black Knights team had trouble putting UTSA away in West Point. This time around, I expect the Roadrunners to exact a bit of revenge in what should be another raucous atmosphere at the Alamodome.  

UTSA has been rounding into form in recent weeks, and that certainly carried over into a beatdown of what was a red-hot East Carolina team a week ago. Historically, Jeff Traylor has been an excellent head coach against the spread in November and his team has clearly turned a corner offensively, with Owen McCown and company putting up an average of nearly 45 points per game over their last 3 games at the Alamodome. Where UTSA has gotten into trouble has been against excellent offenses on the road, but that’s not the situation that they’ll see in this one. In fact, while the Roadrunners pass defense is still an issue, they won’t face much of a passing attack from an Army team that is very one dimensional with its heavy rush rate this season. With that in mind, the UTSA rush defense (21st in quality drive rate allowed) should keep the Black Knights behind the chains throughout this contest. Ultimately, given the fact that the Roadrunners are trending up while Army has struggled away from home this season, there’s some inherent value on the home favorite at the current number on Saturday.

Army vs UTSA prediction: UTSA -6.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to UTSA -7 (-115).

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