Caleb Wilfinger

This total has dropped a few points since the open, and it’s easy to see why. The Titans offense has showed a bit of a pulse in recent weeks, but this is still a unit that grades out as one of the worst offenses in football (30th in EPA per play, 31st in success rate) and it’s hard to see Cam Ward and company putting up a big number in rainy and windy conditions on Sunday. On the other side, the Saints offense has tallied at least 20 points in 3 consecutive games. However, those performances came in advantageous environments where scoring conditions were much more optimal than what we’re expected to see in this contest. It’s not my favorite play on the board by any means, but the under is the only way I can look in this one.

Under 39.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

One of the more interesting games on the NFL Week 17 card comes in Cleveland, where the Browns are set to take on the Steelers in an AFC North showdown. Cleveland has shown flashes since the insertion of Shedeur Sanders at quarterback, and despite the fact that the rookie played a very poor game a week ago, the Browns still covered the spread against the Bills as home underdogs with relative ease. Not only is Buffalo a much better offense than what Cleveland will see against Pittsburgh this week, but this is not a good situational spot for a Steelers team that is coming off a trio of massive victories over the Lions, Dolphins and Ravens in recent weeks. Pittsburgh went from being on the outside looking in, to now clearly in the driver’s seat for the AFC North Crown and a first round home game in the AFC playoffs come January. The Steelers don’t even need to win this game in order to clinch the division, as a loss from the shorthanded Ravens would also do the trick. With that in mind, it’s reasonable to expect that Pittsburgh might not be at its sharpest this week against the lowly Browns.

Cleveland has been a tale of two teams this season. At home, the Browns have been one of the most profitable teams against the spread over the last 3 seasons, and it all starts with a defense that has been able to make life very difficult for opposing quarterbacks. In fact, the Browns just held down the Bills offense a week ago, so the Steelers shouldn’t be as much of a challenge in comparison. This is also a game where the weather figures to be a major factor, as we should see significant sustained winds in Cleveland once again. All signs point to this being a very close game, so I’ll gladly grab the points with the home ‘dog on Sunday.

Steelers vs Browns prediction: Browns +3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +3

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The Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) are the only team to clinch a division title so far, wrapping up the NFC East after a 29-18 triumph at Washington last Saturday. The defending champions have rebounded nicely from a 3-game slide to win their last two games by double-digits, although they faced the Commanders and Raiders, who are not going to the playoffs. Philadelphia travels to Buffalo on Sunday seeking its 6th road victory of the season as the Eagles are listed as an underdog for the first time since last season’s Super Bowl.

The Bills (11-4) may not win their 6th straight AFC East crown, but Buffalo has shown it will be dangerous in the postseason. Buffalo is back home after rallying to shock New England two weeks ago and holding off Cleveland last Sunday to extend its winning streak to 4 games. The Bills were in a prime position to cover as 10.5-point road favorites last week against the Browns, leading 23-10 in the third quarter before Cleveland scored the final 10 points. Since Week 6, the Bills have not gone consecutive weeks without covering the spread, posting a 4-0 ATS mark in this situation.

The Eagles allowed the Giants to score 34 points in a Week 6 loss, but Philadelphia has not given up more than 24 points in nine consecutive games. The Bills have yielded at least 30 points in 4 of the past 6 games, including 32 points to the Buccaneers and 34 points to the Bengals. Buffalo has won in each of its 2 opportunities as a favorite of 3 points or less, but this is a short number against a Philadelphia team that has already clinched a division title.

Eagles vs Bills prediction: Eagles +1 available at time of publishing. Playable to Eagles ML (-110)

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