Caleb Wilfinger

While I don’t foresee Troy scoring all that much in this game — especially with the weather forecast projecting very cold and potentially windy temperatures — there should be opportunities for the Trojans to make some hay in the passing game, potentially in garbage time if things get out of hand. That’s where RaRa Thomas comes in, as the veteran wide receiver should be able to get some separation against this James Madison secondary. Thomas has racked up at least 3 receptions in 4 of his last 5 games played, and if Troy is in a game script in which it needs to throw the ball consistently, there should be plenty of targets to spare for the Trojans wideout. 

To close out our Mountain West title game SGP, let’s back UNLV running back Jai’Den Thomas to find the end zone for the 13th time this season. The Rebels are no stranger to putting up a ton of points, and UNLV’s offense did just fine in this building back in October, even in a losing effort. Thomas was a part of that scoring, as the Rebels bellcow in the backfield recorded a touchdown in the loss, one of his 12 scores on the ground this season. The Broncos are not known for their rush defense, so it wouldn’t shock me at all if Thomas found the end zone for the 5th time over his last 7 games played on Friday.

Given the fact that Madsen is expected to be back in the lineup for Boise State, this line looks a bit short given where it was at in their previous meeting. However, instead of backing Boise State on the spread, I’ll take the Broncos on the money line in order to avoid a potential backdoor opportunity for UNLV. Back when these two teams played back in October, the Broncos were laying nearly 2 touchdowns at home and still covered the spread with ease in a 56-31 drubbing of the Rebels, a game in which Boise State averaged nearly 10 yards per play.

While I don’t anticipate a similar margin of victory on Friday, there’s little reason to think that the Broncos won’t be able to score against this very poor UNLV defense (112th in success rate allowed), especially with their quarterback back in the lineup. I’ll back Boise State on the blue turf for yet another year.

This isn’t exactly the most compelling game on the Week 14 slate, but the Buccaneers are in decent position to finally pick up a win by margin after struggling over the last 6 weeks. Tampa Bay is still dealing with a ton of injuries on offense, but the Buccaneers should be a bit healthier on the offensive line and in the wide receiving corps. It certainly helps matters that Baker Mayfield has performed at a very high level at home this season, and he’ll be facing a defense that he’s already seen once this season, and that was when Tampa Bay was extremely banged-up. On the other side of the ball, Todd Bowles has been a coach who has dominated inexperienced quarterbacks historically, and that’s exactly what the Tampa Bay defense will see here against Tyler Shough, who has struggled mightily against the blitz in his first few starts as an NFL quarterback.

Given the mismatch at hand and the coaching edge that Tampa Bay has in this game, I can’t see the Saints generating consistent success on offense. After all, New Orleans mustered up just 3 points in the first meeting between these teams, and that was in the Superdome. The Bucs won that contest by a whopping 20 points and while we can’t project a similar result in this spot, it’s hard to imagine New Orleans’ meager offense doing enough to stay within this number on the road. It’s not my favorite game on the card, but I’ll lay the points with Tampa Bay.

Saints vs Buccaneers prediction: Bucs -8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.5.

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The Bengals made waves on Thanksgiving night by pulling off an upset as underdogs of nearly a touchdown against the Ravens in Baltimore. On first glance, Joe Burrow’s return seemed to spark the Cincinnati offense and it seemed to be a more inspired effort from the Bengals defense en route to a win that somehow kept them alive in what is suddenly a very weak AFC North division race. However, I’m of the opinion that the narrative on Burrow and the Bengals has gotten a little out of hand heading into this week’s contest, which gives us a bit of value on Buffalo this week.

For starters, much of the talk has been about Cincinnati’s newfound offense, but the Bengals registered one of the bottom 5 success rates of any team that played a week ago, and that was against a pretty banged-up Ravens defense in the back end. Joe Burrow and this offense only averaged 4.8 yards per play and was consistently set up with good field position. It’s hard to assume that this will happen again this week, especially considering Buffalo’s defensive front is playing better following a couple of solid showings against Houston and Pittsburgh. Even though Cincinnati’s offense is a step-up in class compared to those units, it’s hard not to see Buffalo generating pressure when matched up against this Bengals offensive line.

On the other side of the ball, while Cincinnati’s defense is certainly playing better than in weeks past, it still benefited from five Baltimore turnovers a week ago, including a fumble out of the end zone as the Ravens were going in for a touchdown that completely changed the momentum of the game. Considering the fact that Josh Allen and the Bills are due for a bit of turnover regression at home following a string of fumbles and tipped interceptions over the last 4 weeks, we can expect Buffalo to play a cleaner and more efficient game in a spot where it has historically been successful in recent years. I’ll lay the points with a Bills offense that is getting healthier while fading the Cincinnati hype train.

Bengals vs Bills prediction: Bills -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -6. 

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We appear to have a major mismatch on our hands on Sunday in the AFC West when the Denver Broncos head to Las Vegas for a date with the reeling Raiders. Despite the fact that Las Vegas has just 2 wins on the season, the Raiders played a bit better against the Chargers a week ago, and they just covered against this same Broncos team in the previous meeting between these teams this season. Denver was a 9.5-point home favorite back on November 6 and nearly lost that game outright, as the Broncos mustered just 10 points in that matchup. When you adjust for the loss of home field (a fairly significant edge for the Broncos in the first meeting) this is a line that I make around Denver -6, so it’s hard to pass up the value we’re perceivably getting with Las Vegas as a home underdog of over a touchdown.

On one hand, the Raiders are one of the worst teams in football and shouldn’t be expected to score much on this excellent Denver defense. However, despite their gaudy record, I’m still not buying the Broncos offense, as Denver has been a pretty middling unit all season long despite facing an easy schedule of opposing defenses. That won’t be the case against a Las Vegas defense that fared very well against Nix in the first meeting between these teams, and the Raiders’ zone looks flummoxed the young Denver quarterback throughout that contest. There’s no reason to believe that Denver should be laying over a touchdown in this spot, especially since the Broncos haven’t covered the spread in this situation (road favorite of over a touchdown) at any point this season. Denver thrives in close games, but it also finds itself in a lot of 1-score games for a reason. Therefore, while the Raiders have been miserable for the majority of the campaign, I’ll back an ugly ‘dog to keep things within one possession on Sunday. 

Broncos vs Raiders prediction: Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7. 

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Arguably the most consequential game of the weekend comes in New Orleans, where the AAC title game will take place on Friday between North Texas and Tulane. With both teams currently ranked ahead of James Madison in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, this game essentially functions as a play-in game for the right to claim the Group of 5 slot in the playoff. Both teams are currently in the midst of excellent seasons, and these are a couple of offenses that should see success in this one, as evident by the sky-high total. However, even though Tulane is going to be an attractive home underdog for many, I can only look toward North Texas as my preferred side on Friday. 

This is a difficult game to handicap given that both teams have coaches that are leaving each program for Power 4 jobs after the season. Setting that fact aside, Tulane is not a team that I’ve been overly impressed with in big spots this season, even as the Green Wave have overachieved compared to preseason expectations. Theoretically, Tulane should be able to score on this North Texas defense, but the Mean Green have a strong pass defense and the Green Wave are just 86th in rushing success rate, which is how you can have success against North Texas. On the other side, the Tulane defense is certainly not the strength of the team, and the Green Wave will have a difficult task on their hands against Drew Mestemaker (29 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions this season) and a Mean Green offense that is elite in all areas. In fact, North Texas is a top 5 unit in success rate, EPA per play, early downs EPA, quality drives created and points per drive. This is a team that can beat you on the ground and through the air, which bodes well for a matchup against a Tulane team has not fared well when stepping up in class against quality offenses this season, as we saw against the likes of Ole Miss and UTSA. And even in a win over Memphis last month, Tulane’s below average pass defense (97th in passing success rate allowed, 86th in 3rd down success rate allowed) struggled to slow down the Tigers, to the tune of 368 passing yards allowed. With that in mind, as long as Mestemaker plays a fairly clean game, there should be plenty of avenues for North Texas to put up plenty of points and force Tulane’s offense to play from behind and consistently score to keep up — a role that the Green Wave have struggled with this season. I’ll back the visitors to outscore the hosts and win the AAC, capping off a storybook season in the process. 

North Texas vs Tulane prediction: North Texas ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

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