Caleb Wilfinger
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Caleb's Picks
There are plenty of factors that point me in the direction of the under. For starters, Pittsburgh is going to be without DK Metcalf in this game, as the Steelers’ top wideout is suspended for the final 2 games of the regular season. Given the fact that this is going to be an extremely difficult matchup against a stout Cleveland defense on the road, it would be reasonable to expect that Pittsburgh struggles to score points in this one. On the other side, the Browns offense has not exactly been the picture of efficiency all season long and I wouldn’t expect that to change with high, sustained winds in the forecast for Sunday. The under is the only way I can look in this one.
Under 34.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to 34.
While most of the Week 17 slate features at least one team in playoff contention, Sunday’s contest between the Saints and Titans is not one that most NFL fans will focus on. However, there is still a bit of value to be had in this game, and it comes on the visitors. The betting market has slowly adjusted to the Saints’ improved play over the second half of the season in recent weeks, and New Orleans continued its good run of form a week ago in a 29-6 victory over the lowly Jets. The victory marked the 3rd consecutive win for the Saints, and it was also the 4th straight game in which New Orleans covered the spread.
The insertion of Tyler Shough at quarterback has proven to be a significant upgrade over Spencer Rattler for an offense that was in desperate need of a spark, and the Saints rookie QB is also coming off the best game of his young career in that victory over New York last week. This momentum should carry over into this week’s matchup against a Titans defense that is dealing with some injuries to key players heading into this one. As for Tennessee, the Titans have showed signs of life in recent weeks, most recently in a win over the reeling Chiefs a week ago. However, Kansas City was already eliminated heading into that game and had nothing to play for. To make matters worse, the Titans defense got to face a 3rd-string quarterback for a decent chunk of that contest. It won’t be nearly as easy of a matchup for Tennessee this time around. I’ll lay the points with a New Orleans team that is trending up at the moment.
Saints vs Titans prediction: Saints -2.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Jacksonville has made an impressive jump in its first season with Liam Coen as head coach, clinching its first playoff berth since 2022. The Jaguars extended their winning streak to 6 games after an impressive 34-20 victory at Denver last Sunday as 3.5-point underdogs. During this hot stretch, the Jags have scored at least 34 points 4 times and have topped the 25-point mark all six games. In fact, Jacksonville has posted more than 25 points in eight consecutive games after getting held to 19 points in a pair of October losses to the Rams and Seahawks. In the last 2 weeks, QB Trevor Lawrence has tossed 8 touchdown passes and is riding a 6-game streak with multiple TD passes.
The Colts (8-7) have seen their dreams of a division title, much less a playoff spot crumble over the last two months. Indianapolis leapt out to an incredible 7-1 record in Daniel Jones’ first season as starting QB of the Colts. However, the Colts have lost six of the past seven games and lost Jones for the season with a broken fibula suffered in a 36-19 defeat at Jacksonville in Week 14. Indianapolis turned to 44-year old Philip Rivers to try and save its season, but the Colts have lost in his first two starts to the Seahawks and 49ers.
Rivers helped the Colts cover as 13-point road underdogs in an 18-16 defeat two weeks ago, but he threw for 120 yards. He looked better in Monday’s 48-27 blowout loss to San Francisco, posting 277 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, but the Colts’ defense had its worst performance of the season in their second home setback. This has been a series dominated by the home team, as the Colts are 4-1 in the past five against the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Jacksonville is the team to beat in the AFC South, but Indianapolis should give them a run here looking for revenge for the loss a few weeks ago.
Jaguars vs Colts prediction: Colts +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +6
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This total has dropped a few points since the open, and it’s easy to see why. The Titans offense has showed a bit of a pulse in recent weeks, but this is still a unit that grades out as one of the worst offenses in football (30th in EPA per play, 31st in success rate) and it’s hard to see Cam Ward and company putting up a big number in rainy and windy conditions on Sunday. On the other side, the Saints offense has tallied at least 20 points in 3 consecutive games. However, those performances came in advantageous environments where scoring conditions were much more optimal than what we’re expected to see in this contest. It’s not my favorite play on the board by any means, but the under is the only way I can look in this one.
Under 39.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
One of the more interesting games on the NFL Week 17 card comes in Cleveland, where the Browns are set to take on the Steelers in an AFC North showdown. Cleveland has shown flashes since the insertion of Shedeur Sanders at quarterback, and despite the fact that the rookie played a very poor game a week ago, the Browns still covered the spread against the Bills as home underdogs with relative ease. Not only is Buffalo a much better offense than what Cleveland will see against Pittsburgh this week, but this is not a good situational spot for a Steelers team that is coming off a trio of massive victories over the Lions, Dolphins and Ravens in recent weeks. Pittsburgh went from being on the outside looking in, to now clearly in the driver’s seat for the AFC North Crown and a first round home game in the AFC playoffs come January. The Steelers don’t even need to win this game in order to clinch the division, as a loss from the shorthanded Ravens would also do the trick. With that in mind, it’s reasonable to expect that Pittsburgh might not be at its sharpest this week against the lowly Browns.
Cleveland has been a tale of two teams this season. At home, the Browns have been one of the most profitable teams against the spread over the last 3 seasons, and it all starts with a defense that has been able to make life very difficult for opposing quarterbacks. In fact, the Browns just held down the Bills offense a week ago, so the Steelers shouldn’t be as much of a challenge in comparison. This is also a game where the weather figures to be a major factor, as we should see significant sustained winds in Cleveland once again. All signs point to this being a very close game, so I’ll gladly grab the points with the home ‘dog on Sunday.
Steelers vs Browns prediction: Browns +3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +3
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This is a shot in the dark compared to some of the favorites on the board, but it’s an educated wager on a quarterback that I could see making a major leap this fall. Devon Dampier electrified the Mountain West at New Mexico a season ago, racking up 31 total touchdowns (including a whopping 19 touchdowns on the ground) in a season that saw him take a major step forward from his freshman campaign.
Now, the 3rd-year starter steps into a promising situation with a Utah team that handed the reins over to former New Mexico offensive coordinator Jason Beck, a respected offensive mind and a surefire upgrade from what the Utes had last season. The Utes also upgraded their weapons on the perimeter via the transfer portal and get a pretty favorable schedule compared to a few other contenders in the Big 12. I’ve got Utah favored in 11 games and if the Utes are able to navigate their way through a couple of tricky conference games, they should certainly find themselves in the Big 12 title game come Championship Weekend. That alone gives this 60-1 ticket a ton of value, so Dampier is worth a sprinkle at this number.
Caleb's Parlays
The top three teams in the NFC West are all headed to the playoffs, it’s just about who will finish as the division champion. Seattle (12-3) owns the best record in the NFC with two weeks to go, looking to creep closer towards the top seed and a first round bye. The Seahawks rallied past the Rams in overtime last Thursday, 38-37, overcoming a 16-point fourth quarter deficit. Now Seattle travels east to Carolina seeking its seventh road win in 8 tries.
The Panthers (8-7) jumped the Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South after knocking off Tampa Bay last Sunday, 23-20 as three-point home underdogs. Carolina improved to 6-1 this season off a loss and 5-1 ATS as home dogs, although 3 of the teams are not headed to the playoffs. The Panthers allowed 20 points in three of the last 4 games, while yielding a couple of touchdowns 3 times. Carolina has taken care of its business against teams with losing records, going 5-3, but is 2-4 when facing clubs owning winning records. Since throwing for 448 yards in an overtime win at Atlanta in Week 11, Panthers QB Bryce Young has not topped the 206-yard mark in any of the past 4 games. The Seahawks have allowed more than 203 passing yards once twice in 7 road games.
Seattle has posted a solid 4-1 ATS mark as a road favorite with its lone non-cover coming as 13-point chalk at Tennessee in a 30-24 victory. The Seahawks are visiting Charlotte for the first time since 2019, beating the Panthers, 30-24. Seattle last faced Carolina in 2023, outlasting the Panthers, 37-27 as Andy Dalton and Geno Smith were the starting quarterbacks. In Carolina’s last five games off a win, the Panthers scored 13, 9, 17, 9, and 17 points, while going 1-4 in those contests.
Seahawks vs Panthers prediction: Seahawks -7 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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One of the more interesting games on the NFL Week 17 card comes in Cleveland, where the Browns are set to take on the Steelers in an AFC North showdown. Cleveland has shown flashes since the insertion of Shedeur Sanders at quarterback, and despite the fact that the rookie played a very poor game a week ago, the Browns still covered the spread against the Bills as home underdogs with relative ease. Not only is Buffalo a much better offense than what Cleveland will see against Pittsburgh this week, but this is not a good situational spot for a Steelers team that is coming off a trio of massive victories over the Lions, Dolphins and Ravens in recent weeks. Pittsburgh went from being on the outside looking in, to now clearly in the driver’s seat for the AFC North Crown and a first round home game in the AFC playoffs come January. The Steelers don’t even need to win this game in order to clinch the division, as a loss from the shorthanded Ravens would also do the trick. With that in mind, it’s reasonable to expect that Pittsburgh might not be at its sharpest this week against the lowly Browns.
Cleveland has been a tale of two teams this season. At home, the Browns have been one of the most profitable teams against the spread over the last 3 seasons, and it all starts with a defense that has been able to make life very difficult for opposing quarterbacks. In fact, the Browns just held down the Bills offense a week ago, so the Steelers shouldn’t be as much of a challenge in comparison. This is also a game where the weather figures to be a major factor, as we should see significant sustained winds in Cleveland once again. All signs point to this being a very close game, so I’ll gladly grab the points with the home ‘dog on Sunday.
Steelers vs Browns prediction: Browns +3.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +3
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Jacksonville has made an impressive jump in its first season with Liam Coen as head coach, clinching its first playoff berth since 2022. The Jaguars extended their winning streak to 6 games after an impressive 34-20 victory at Denver last Sunday as 3.5-point underdogs. During this hot stretch, the Jags have scored at least 34 points 4 times and have topped the 25-point mark all six games. In fact, Jacksonville has posted more than 25 points in eight consecutive games after getting held to 19 points in a pair of October losses to the Rams and Seahawks. In the last 2 weeks, QB Trevor Lawrence has tossed 8 touchdown passes and is riding a 6-game streak with multiple TD passes.
The Colts (8-7) have seen their dreams of a division title, much less a playoff spot crumble over the last two months. Indianapolis leapt out to an incredible 7-1 record in Daniel Jones’ first season as starting QB of the Colts. However, the Colts have lost six of the past seven games and lost Jones for the season with a broken fibula suffered in a 36-19 defeat at Jacksonville in Week 14. Indianapolis turned to 44-year old Philip Rivers to try and save its season, but the Colts have lost in his first two starts to the Seahawks and 49ers.
Rivers helped the Colts cover as 13-point road underdogs in an 18-16 defeat two weeks ago, but he threw for 120 yards. He looked better in Monday’s 48-27 blowout loss to San Francisco, posting 277 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, but the Colts’ defense had its worst performance of the season in their second home setback. This has been a series dominated by the home team, as the Colts are 4-1 in the past five against the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Jacksonville is the team to beat in the AFC South, but Indianapolis should give them a run here looking for revenge for the loss a few weeks ago.
Jaguars vs Colts prediction: Colts +6.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to +6
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The New York Rangers are looking to avenge their 5-0 loss to the Islanders back on November 8 when they meet at UBS Arena on Saturday night. The Rangers enter this contest with some momentum, as they’ve won 3 of their last 4 games and are coming off an impressive 7-3 win over the Capitals on Tuesday. On the other side, the Islanders were able to snap a 3-game losing streak with a 2-1 win over the Devils on Tuesday. The Islander offense has gone cold, scoring 2 or fewer goals in 4 straight games and in 6 of their last 10 contests.
The Ranger offensive attack has been much more effective on the road than at home so far this season. New York’s goals per game average jumps from a measly 1.89 at Madison Square Garden up to 3.24 when playing on the road. Islanders goaltender Ilya Sorokin has struggled against the Rangers in his career, owning a 4-6-2 record to go along with a 3.17 goals-against average in 12 career games against the Broadway Blueshirts. He is also dealing with a minor nagging injury, so it’s possible he isn’t at the top of his game in this one. Consider backing the Rangers on the road.
Rangers vs Islanders prediction: Rangers ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The New Jersey Devils will be hosting the Washington Capitals in their first game after the holiday break. The break came at a good time for these teams as the Devils are on a two-game losing streak and 4-6-0 in their last 10 games and the Capitals are riding a three-game losing streak and are 3-4-3 in their last 10 games. This is the second meeting between these two teams this season, the Devils won the tightly contested first meeting 3-2 in a shootout. I think we will see another close game as these teams are very evenly matched. With the return of superstar forward Jack Hughes, the Devils are that much more dangerous offensively and on their powerplay. Despite playing only half of the Devils games this year, he is still ranked fifth in team scoring.
The Capitals rely heavily on offensive production from their defenseman as two of their top four-point scorers are defenseman. I do not believe this is sustainable over the course of an 82-game season, and especially not against a team like the Devils that have a lot of firepower. I think the Devils will get it done on home ice. Devils on the money line is the play here.
Capitals vs. Devils prediction: Devils ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Anaheim Ducks enter this contest against the Los Angeles Kings as one of the highest-scoring teams in the NHL. Anaheim ranks 4th in the league scoring 3.38 goals per game despite ranking 25th with a power play percentage of 16.5%. The Ducks have thrived at 5-on-5 hockey, and enter Saturday’s matchup against the Kings having scored 3+ goals in 4 of their last 5 games. Los Angeles goaltender Anton Forsberg has allowed 3+ goals in 4 of his last 5 games and has seen his goals-against average jump from 2.19 in November to 2.80 in December. The Ducks should be able to have some offensive success in this one.
On the other side, the Kings are in a bit of an offensive rut. However, they could be in a strong position to bounce back going up against an Anaheim team that is allowing the 3rd-most goals per game in the NHL (3.41). Furthermore, both of these teams rank in the bottom-3rd of the NHL in terms of penalty killing percentage. All in all, both offenses should be in a decent position to thrive in this one. A total of 9 goals were scored in the first meeting between these teams this season back on November 28, and we could have another high-scoring affair on deck. Look to the over.
Ducks vs Kings prediction: Over 6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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It will be a battle between 2 disappointing teams outside the playoff cut line in the Western Conference when the Sacramento Kings entertain the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday night. The value is on Sacramento as the underdog, so my Mavericks vs Kings prediction is for the home side to cover. When the Mavs improbably won the 2025 NBA Draft lottery, they had grandiose designs of a Big 3 featuring Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving and Cooper Flagg. That is not how the story has played out, however — at least not yet. Irving (knee) has not yet played this season and Davis is questionable for Saturday with an adductor injury. Davis left his team’s Christmas Day loss to Golden State with an apparent groin injury, so the veteran big man is simply banged up in multiple ways these days. What’s new?!?!
Although there are not a whole lot of good things to say about the Kings, at least they are playing at home. Sactown is 4-10 at the Golden 1 Center compared to 3-13 on the road. That’s not saying much; but it’s something. More importantly, the Mavs are horrendous on the road (3-10) compared to a somewhat respectable 9-9 home record. Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray are sidelined, so this more of a fade of Dallas than it is in support of Sacramento. Give me the points, but proceed with caution until Davis’ status is confirmed.
Mavericks vs Kings prediction: Sacramento +3 (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Indiana Pacers will travel Saturday night to take on the Miami Heat for the first time this season. The Pacers have a record this season of 6-25, and they are only 1-13 when playing on the road. The Pacers have lost their last seven games, including their last loss against the Boston Celtics 140-122. Andrew Nembhard led the team with 18 points and 8 assists. The Heat have a record 16-15, but are 10-5 on their home floor. The Heat have lost three of their last four games, but they are coming off a 126-111 win over the Atlanta Hawks. Normal Powell led the Heat in scoring with 25 points and Kel’el Ware controlled the glass with 13 rebounds in the absence of Bam Adebayo. Pelle Larsson returned from an ankle injury in this game, and he scored a career-high 21 points.
Both teams will be playing this game in the second half of a back-to-back. Neither team has played well leading into this game. Before yesterday’s win for the Heat, they had lost eight out of their last nine games. Both teams are also dealing with a plethora of injuries. Gametime decisions for Indiana include Isaiah Jackson, Ben Sheppard and Aaron Nesmith. The Heat are waiting on a decision if Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro will be ready to return from injury tonight. The Heat have been solid at home this season, but they have been shaky in that arena as of late. They have lost their last three games on their home floor. Two of those losses were against the Toronto Raptors and one was against the Sacramento Kings, but all three were by double digits. Pacers’ head coach, Rick Carlisle, is one win away from 1000 career wins. With neither team playing well, I’ll back the Pacers and the points tonight.
Pacers vs Heat prediction: Pacers +8.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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Powered by a strong Jalen Brunson performance, Christmas Day saw the Knicks come back from 17 points down in the 4th quarter to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers. It wasn’t just Brunson though, Jordan Clarkson also added 25 off the bench for a Knicks team that trailed for 74% of the game. The Knicks will be encouraged by the win as they head to Atlanta to face a Hawks team playing on a 2nd night of a back-to-back. New York’s form on the road hasn’t been all that good this season at just 5-7 SU, but they have enjoyed success in recent meetings vs the Hawks winning 6 of 9 and also covering in 4 of 5 visits.
Atlanta’s biggest issue right now is their defense, or the lack of one. Trae Young’s return from injury has been a net negative so far, this team is only 2-7 SU in 9 games when he plays. Bettors have lost quite a bit of money on this team lately, the Hawks have failed to cover in 7 straight games and have dropped 5 in a row overall. They are one of the worst home teams in the NBA at just 5-10 SU, in those 15 games they covered the spread just 4 times. If something drastic doesn’t change in the next few games I’m afraid the Hawks will be forced to make some moves on the trade market.
Even though Josh Hart will be out here, you still have to go with the more consistent Knicks. Atlanta is just a mess right now, in their last game played on a 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario they got blown out by San Antonio 126-98. Back the Knicks.
New York Knicks vs Atlanta Hawks Predictions: Knicks -6 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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The Penn State Nittany Lions and the Clemson Tigers at Yankee Stadium? While it may seem like something out of a movie, it’s just the Pinstripe Bowl. In the beginning of the regular season, if you told us these two would be squaring off in the postseason, we would have thought it would have been in the College Football Playoff. Instead, two of the most storied programs in college football meet in the Bronx before New Year’s Day. The question going in is which team can handle that better? The signs point to the Tigers.
We can point out this number opened with Clemson spotting a field goal plus the hook to PSU. That type of price typically lends to a favorite number because it makes the field goal plus the half point attractive to take with the underdog. So far, the market has bitten down, and the line has moved to a field goal accordingly. However, that’s not the only reason why we like the Tigers here. Let’s talk about coaching: Terry Smith vs. Dabo Swinney. Who are you taking? Dabo, of course. Swinney will find a way to craft a narrative to get his team fired up for this opportunity even if its season went off the rails. Penn State may have a lot more local support in New York, but none of that actually matters against a team like Clemson, who is built for stages even like this one. Tigers roll.
Penn State vs Clemson prediction: Clemson Tigers -3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at the number.
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As part of a loaded Saturday college football slate, the 10-3 Virginia Cavaliers will meet the 8-4 Missouri Tigers in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. The Cavaliers come into this game on the heels of a disappointing 27-20 overtime loss to Duke in the ACC Championship, which cost them a seat at the metaphorical College Football Playoff table. Meanwhile, the Tigers ended the season with 4 losses in their last 7 outings, though 3 of those losses were to CFP teams and the 4th was to a near-playoff team in Vanderbilt.
As with every non-playoff bowl game, player availability is the first thing to assess. At the time of writing on Christmas Eve morning, Virginia should be close to full strength. That is, assuming players like RB J’Mari Taylor, QB Chandler Morris, and S Devin Neal all play. As far as injuries go, the Cavaliers will be without LB Kam Robinson – one of their best tacklers – and potentially leading-WR Trell Harris (847 yards, 5 TD), who was hurt in the ACC Championship. On the other sideline, Missouri will be without starting QB Beau Pribula, WR Marquis Johnson and WR Josh Manning, all of whom hit the transfer portal. Injury wise, starting TE Brett Norfleet and stud LB Josiah Trotter are out.
Missouri’s passing attack will be limited without Pribula, Johnson, and Manning, but backup QB Matt Zollers started 3 games during the regular season. The freshman signal caller is still green, but with playing experience against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Mississippi State, plus a few weeks to prepare for this opponent, he should be ready to go. Missouri’s offense is centered around the run anyway, and that is where the Tigers should have the advantage in this matchup.
Virginia rates very well defensively, but I question the strength of its opponents. Simply put, the Cavaliers have not faced a runner like Missouri’s Ahmad Hardy. The future-pro accumulated over 1,500 rushing yards this year with 16 touchdowns, and over 1,100 of those yards came after contact. Without Robinson on the field, Virginia may have a difficult time stopping Missouri’s run game, even if Hardy doesn’t receive a full workload – as the Tiger backfield is deep with capable rushers.
I have a similar opinion as it pertains to Virginia’s offense against Missouri’s defense. The Cavaliers did not face many stop-units near the strength of the Tigers at any point this season. In fact, the 3 best defenses Virginia faced from a PPA/play perspective were Louisville, Washington State, and Wake Forest, and the Cavaliers averaged 12 points less in those 3 games than they did over the course of the whole season – and that’s before acknowledging UVA had 2 defensive touchdowns and 6 overtime points against Louisville. With a top-20, front-7 havoc rate since Week 9, Missouri’s defensive front is going to get after Morris in the backfield.
Considering the step up in class for Virginia, as well as the potential let down after losing the ACC Championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff, it’s Missouri or pass as far as the spread is concerned for me in the Gator Bowl.
Virginia vs Missouri prediction: Missouri Tigers -3.5 (-120) at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.
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The New Mexico Bowl will feature the 11-2 North Texas Mean Green from the American Conference and the 9-3 San Diego State Aztecs from the Mountain West Conference. North Texas finished the season as the 25th-ranked team in the nation and would have likely gotten into the College Football Playoff had they beaten Tulane in the American Conference Championship. Freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker finished the season with 4,129 yards passing and 31 touchdowns, leading the country in passing yards. His top receiver was Wyatt Young, who finished the season with 1,209 yards and 10 touchdowns.
San Diego State finished its season winning 2 of its 3 three games. Quarterback Jayden Denegal led the Aztecs in passing with 1,807 yards and 9 touchdowns. Running back Lucky Sutton had a great year on the ground, totaling 1237 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The key for this game will be North Texas’s explosive offense against San Diego’s staunch defense. As of Thursday morning, despite announcing for the transfer portal, Mestemaker is still set to suit up for Saturday’s game. With Mestemaker under center, North Texas ranks 1st in the FBS offensively with 44.8 points and 504 yards per game. San Diego ranks 5th in the country with only 12.6 points allowed per game. The Aztecs also defend the pass well, allowing only 157 passing yards per game.
On the other side of the ball, San Diego State will be without starting quarterback Denegal for this contest. He will end his season early to receive surgery to recover from his injury before next season. Both teams had great seasons, but I’m leaning towards North Texas. After losing their conference championship, their ‘why’ feels slightly stronger heading into this matchup, and the Mean Green should have a decent quarterback advantage.
North Texas vs San Diego State prediction: North Texas Mean Green -5.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.
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