Caleb Wilfinger

To start off our MLB parlay, let’s take the Red Sox on the money line. This is a massive series in the AL Wild Card picture, and it came down to the wire on Thursday, when Boston rallied late to steal the series opener. Winners of 9 of their last 10, the Red Sox should be in a solid position to keep the good times rolling on Friday, especially since their offense is averaging 7.7 runs per game with a .938 OPS over the past 2 weeks, and Alex Bregman is set to return on Friday. Neither starter is expected to go that deep into this game, but Red Sox starter Hunter Dobbins has been much better at home (3.22 ERA) and Drew Rasmussen is due for some regression (3.68 xERA compared to his 2.82 actual ERA) in his upcoming outings. Let’s take Boston to keep the train rolling at home.

For the 2nd leg of our MLB parlay, we’re off to San Francisco for a matchup between the Giants and the suddenly reeling Los Angeles Dodgers. Los Angeles’ offense has struggled mightily of late (5 runs over its last 4 games), and I don’t see the Dodgers succeeding much against the excellent Logan Webb (2.62 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 90th percentile ground-ball rate) on the road. On the other side, Dustin May will get the ball for Los Angeles on Friday, and the lanky southpaw has been pretty unconvincing this season, posting a 4.52 ERA on the year, to go along with a 5.67 ERA in June. All things considered, the Giants should be able to get out to an early lead and hold the edge through 5 innings on Friday.

To close out our MLB parlay, let’s back the Tigers on the run line. Detroit is taking on a Seattle Mariners team that suffered a heartbreaking loss on Thursday, and will now have the displeasure of facing off against Tarik Skubal (2.02 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 33.9% strikeout rate), who is the AL Cy Young favorite for the 2nd straight season. As for the Seattle side of things, the Mariners are countering with Luis Castillo, whose underlying metrics are just not as good as his baseline statistics at this point in the campaign. That’s certainly concerning against a Tigers lineup that is ranked 6th in SLG and OPS on the year. With Detroit having the vastly superior starter and a pretty well-rested bullpen, I’ll gladly back the Tigers to win by margin on Friday.