Chris R. Farley

Phillip Rivers will return to Monday Night Football in just his second week back and needless to say, this feels like it’ll be a highly entertaining watch. In his first start he played well, far above expectations considering he’s a 44-year old quarterback who hasn’t been in the league for five years. Rivers also had his first appearance against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL, a Seahawks’ group that ranks top-5 in EPA per pass. Shane Steichen gave Rivers an easy-to-follow gameplan which incorporated many short, simple throws to get him back in the fold, and the veteran went 18-27 for 120 yards for one touchdown and one interception. Of course that wasn’t a particularly impressive performance, but Rivers never looked rattled or out of his comfort zone. In fact he seemed to have command over the offense, calling audibles and vocally leading his comrades with the same ferocity he was known for in San Diego.

The Colts’ defense played very well last weekend, limiting the home-team Seahawks, one of the most potent offenses, to just 314 yards. A unit that ranks 11th in total defensive EPA, Indianapolis has its flaws on that side of the ball, particularly against opposing quarterbacks (ranked 14th in EPA per pass and permitting 7.1 yards per pass, 16th). We expect them to show their best form on Monday night, along with the rest of their squad, since their chances at a postseason run lie in the balance.

The 49ers won in Week 15 in what was an easy-breezy win for the most part, although they allowed the hapless Titans to eventually score 24 points. San Francisco sprinted out to a 31-10 lead and played more casually after that. They barely covered the spread (-12.5), but a late field goal with just two minutes left helped secure the needed margin. In general the 49ers are an average team with good leadership and mostly good quarterback play (4th in completion percentage, 10th in yards per pass), and they’re also fighting for their postseason spot in a crowded NFC West.

If the playoffs started today, the Niners would be in. They also have a favorable schedule remaining to round up their season, with two home games incoming in Weeks 17 and 18. The Colts are the more desperate team, since they’re currently outside the playoff picture, meaning every game qualifies as a must-win. They also have a difficult remaining schedule against two more AFC South opponents. We like the Colts to give it their all and to throw the kitchen sink at the Niners, plain and simple.

San Francisco 49ers vs Indianapolis Colts prediction: Colts +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This total is curiously high. Maybe part of that is because Baltimore will be unseasonably mild and calm on Sunday night, forecasted to be in the mid-40s — a perfect night for football. Perhaps it will become a perfect night for scoring, too. The market is certainly sending a signal by posting this above 47, a prime key number in totals.

Matchup wise, it makes sense. New England’s defense has mostly been very good this season — but it is also coming off a contest in which it got exposed by a dynamic quarterback. Arguably no NFL quarterback is as dynamic as Lamar Jackson, a true outlier athlete with a legitimate rifle of an arm to boot — very Josh Allen-like. The market is likely responding to the fact that New England’s schedule has featured very few top-tier offenses. In fact, according to EPA metrics, they Pats have only clashed with two top-15 offenses this season (BUF, PIT). Despite Baltimore’s transgressions this season, it can overwhelm any defense when functioning at a high level. 

The Patriots’ offense needs no introduction at this point, nor does the missteps of the Ravens’ defense. Defensively, Week 15 was easily Baltimore’s most impressive showing all season — blanking the Bengals and holding Joe Burrow and company to only 298 total yards. Despite holding the ball for nearly two-thirds of the game (39:19), Cincinnati went 3-for-15 on third-down conversions, too. Still, we haven’t seen that version of the Ravens’ defense for any consistent stretch all year — it’s a group that permits 344.4 yards per game (23rd). Both offenses are in a good spot and I trust both teams to rely on their production in this huge Sunday night game. I can only look at the over.

Patriots vs Ravens prediction: Over 48 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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