Chris R. Farley

As if losing to the Cowboys in Week 12 wasn’t enough, Philadelphia followed that up with a home loss to the Bears this past Friday. In the process, they looked worse than they have all season. Generating just 6.2 yards per play and converting just 4 out of 12 third downs, another lackluster performance by Saquon Barkley juxtaposed 2 turnovers from Jalen Hurts, who went just 19-34 for 230 yards. Even more startling, the Eagles possessed the ball for only 20 minutes and 42 seconds, just one-third of total game-time. 

Perhaps even more surprising was their defense, a group that had been holding up their roster for weeks on end and finally capitulated. The Bears ran it down their throat for all 4 quarters, gaining 281 yards on the ground and 425 total. Chicago correspondingly gained 28 first downs, doubling Philadelphia. Radio personalities in the City of Brotherly Love are anything but loving after that performance, and the Eagles are now a main topic of discussion in the national media. It all feels very 2023, a season where the Eagles completely sputtered at the end of the year, losing 5 of their last 6 games. We wouldn’t be surprised if the exact same thing happened here. Without a formidable rushing attack and top-tier play-calling, Hurts is not the kind of quarterback who can carry his team.

The Chargers had an easy breezy win in Week 13, blowing by the Raiders at home. Beating up on Vegas is hardly an indication of a return to top-form for any program, but it was a nice response after their bye-week. Defensively they’re still among the best, 7th overall in defensive EPA. Offensively LAC remains a middling program, ranked 16th in offensive EPA, and now they’re concerned for Justin Herbert. He had surgery on his left hand on Monday and he’s considered day-to-day. In general, the Chargers have played poorly against great teams, but we can hardly consider the Eagles “great” at this juncture.

The Monday night total is very low and the spread indicates this will probably be a close game. The combination suggests neither offense will pull away, which is largely what we’ve seen this season. The Bolts don’t have much of a home-field advantage, but the ability to stay home for a full week and rest before a big opponent is surely preferable. Meanwhile, Philadelphia will travel across the country and experience the lag of a 3-hour time difference. The Chargers could easily be the favorite in this game, so we have no other choice here.

Eagles vs Chargers MNF prediction: Los Angeles Chargers +3 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.

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Thirteen weeks into the season and most NFL pundits wouldn’t have guessed that the Texans would have the better record in this matchup. At 7-5, Houston is again a threat in the AFC South due to Colts’ recent stumble (lost 3 of their past 4), including last Sunday’s loss to the very Texans squad. That means there will be no lack of focus or effort for a Texans’ squad that’s playing their best football of the season entering Week 14.

Houston has won 4 straight and it’s mostly because of its defense. At this point, they need no introduction, but it’s not a stretch to say that Houston’s defense is the best the NFL has to offer — a unit that’s allowed more than 300 yards just 3 times this season. 

The Texans’ offense has done enough, averaging 338 yards per contest during their 4-game winning streak. Stoic performances by Davis Mills and the recent return of CJ Stroud have provided the Texans’ with enough production every week, considering their defense always limits the enemy offense. Rookie running back Woody Marks, who’s getting more touches every week (19 carries for 64 yards in Week 13) has provided more consistency on the ground, too.

Kansas City is getting maligned by the media again and it’s for a good reason. Although Patrick Mahomes’ magic is always prevalent, and at times the Chiefs’ offense looks like it always has, it’s reminding us more of Josh Allen’s situation (and not in a good way). Mahomes has to do too much to keep his offense afloat, a group that’s simply not as talented and not as steady as former iterations. That’s especially true up front. Mahomes has been sacked 3 or more times in his past 5 starts. Kansas City’s defense is struggling too. The Chiefs are 20th in total defensive EPA, and allowed Dak Prescott’s offense to drop 457 yards on them last week. Houston is not Dallas, but there’s certainly cause for concern in Chiefs-land. At 6-6, no team is on alert, but they have a favorable schedule (three home games and road spots at TEN/LV) remaining.

Andy Reid’s Chiefs are notoriously buttoned up in December, going 4-0 in 3 out of 5 previous seasons (the other two: 3-1, 1-3). But this isn’t the same Chiefs’ team, certainly not according to nearly every metric and qualifier. Houston’s first-class defense is enough to keep them in this game, even if their offense mostly sputters.

Texans vs Chiefs SNF prediction: Houston Texans +3.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3.

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Perceptions have never been higher on the Cowboys. One week after knocking off the Eagles, a game that sent Philly’s hopes into a spiral, Jerry Jones’ franchise beat the Kansas City Chiefs, cementing victories against each of last year’s Super Bowl attendees. Dallas’ Thanksgiving win might’ve been more impressive than their Week 13 takedown of the Eagles since it included more big plays from their defense. Obviously a different group than the bottom-feeders that started the season, the Cowboys’ defense held Kansas City to just 6 yards per play and 5-13 on 3rd down.

Fresh new faces this season made impacts throughout the game, including 2 sacks by Jadeveon Clowney, one by Dante Fowler Jr., and others made key stops when it mattered. Their offense continued to show off, too. Against one of the best defenses and best defensive coaches in the NFL, Dak Prescott avenged an early interception to go 27/39 for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. The bulk of that production came from his 2 all-world receivers, George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, who combined for 13 catches, 200 yards and a touchdown. Their ground attack also continued to exceed expectations (26 carries for 137 yards), good for 5.3 yards per carry.

Perhaps most important of all, Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer was in full command against the 3-time Super Bowl-winning Chiefs, outwitting Steve Spagnuolo in key moments of the game. At 6-5-1, Dallas is in position to threaten for an NFC East crown, believe it or not!

Things didn’t go so smoothly for the Lions on Thanksgiving. Just like 2 seasons ago, they allowed Jordan Love and an upstart Packers’ offense to slice through their resistance when it mattered. Green Bay threw for 7.8 yards per pass and eventually put up 31 points, and then their defense shut down the Lions’ offense in the 4th quarter. It was a startling showing from Dan Campbell’s program, an outfit we expect to show up and play elite football in these spots. Even worse, Detroit has key injuries throughout their offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown is officially a game-time decision on Thursday, Detroit is down to its 3rd tight end and center Graham Glasnow remains out.

Our first inclination was to go with Detroit off a loss, at home, and with increasing desperation to get their season back on track. But there’s too much momentum on Dallas’ side right now, and we’re not sure how the Lions will be able to stop Dak and his first-class offense (4th in EPA per pass). We’ll go with the visitors.

Cowboys vs Lions TNF prediction: Cowboys +3 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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