Chris R. Farley

Pickswise Expert Writer

Chris is a writer for Pickswise who’s been handicapping the NFL since 2011. He began his public betting career as a betting writer, and has since become a contributing analyst for various betting sites and shows. He was a 5th place winner ($114k) in the 2021 NFL Circa Millions contest, and he owns his own sports betting podcast, Laying the Points. Chris approaches handicapping using psychosocial principles and nuanced market analysis. The NFL and NBA are his favorite and most profitable sports.

Live Picks 2

Live Parlays 0

Weekly News Articles 0

Location

Baltimore, MD

Favorite Sports

Favorite Teams

Greatest Betting Win

My very first memory was my favorite because it paved the way for everything else. It was June 2010 and my first time in Vegas. My military buddy and I had one hell of a week, but on the final leg of our trip we relaxed at a sportsbook all day and watched the 2010 NBA Finals. We were both big Lakers’ fans. LAL was losing, but they went on an 8-point scoring spree to end the first half. I sensed some serious momentum, and I placed my first ever sports bet, $50 on the Lakers to score the first ten points of the third quarter. It won, and needless to say I’ve been compelled ever since!

Greatest Achievements

2021 5th place CIrca Millions winner 207-152 (58%) NBA record in 2021 season, first as pro handicapper Career NFL record: 286-229 (55.5%), +91.64 units

Education

Associates Degree in Munitions Technology Bachelor's Degree in Theology and Communications Master’s Degree in Public Administration Chris has extensive experience writing for websites and appearing as a guest analyst on betting shows.

Experience

12+ years betting experience 3+ years as a pro handicapper 5+ years as a sports journalist Chris has been a professional handicapper for 3 years. He was catapulted on the public betting scene with his 5th place Circa Millions win in 2021, his first entry in the contest. Over the course of the last 3 years, Chris has won over 200 units betting the NFL and NBA, and he has published hundreds of articles for betting websites like TheOddsBreakers and SportsWagers.ca. Chris has regular guest appearances for VSiN, and he has appeared on many betting shows and podcasts.

Favorite betting market / type

ATS, Totals, Team totals.

Chris's Picks

Game Totals Pick

Under 43.5(-110)

Reasoning

Since the Bills and Texans are built so differently, predicting a total becomes that much more challenging. Houston sits in 3rd in the AFC South despite owning the NFL’s best defense, a group that allows just 16.3 points (1st) and 258.1 yards (1st) per game. It looks like they’ll still be without CJ Stroud on Thursday Night Football, who remains in concussion protocol, but with or without CJ Stroud, their offense just hasn’t been very good this season. They average just 22 points (21st) and gain just 329.6 yards per game (19th). Davis Mills has done a good job in Stroud’s absence (726 yards, 60% completion rate, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception), but the Bills are better against the pass than they are against the run. Buffalo is top-5 in sack rate and holds opposing QBs to just 169.7 passing yards per game (2nd).

We think Houston will score here and there, but this total will be decided when the Bills are on offense. Josh Allen is incomparable and impossible to accurately predict. He’s also prone to making mistakes against great defenses. Last season a very similarly constructed Texans’ resistance completely stymied the future Hall of Famer, limiting the Bills’ leader to just 9-30 for only 131 yards. When Buffalo has success on the ground, they generally have a big offensive day. They’re first in rush yards per game (147.6), but the Texans are also top-3 in that category defensively, permitting just 3.9 yards per rush. This total has to carry some weight because the game features Josh Allen, but it’s a tick too high considering the home team’s style.

Bills vs Texans pick: Under 43.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 43.

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Chris R. Farley

Point Spread Pick

HOU Texans +5.5(-110)

Reasoning

Thursday Night Football gets NFL Week 12 started as the Buffalo Bills head to NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans.

Week 11 was a microcosm of who the Bills and Texans are, and in many ways, they couldn’t be more different. Buffalo is nothing without their quarterback. In a full display of the quintessential Josh Allen experience, Allen threw some preposterous interceptions, lending Tampa easy scoring situations on multiple occasions. On the other hand, Allen completely dominated the Bucs’ defense, gaining 6 total touchdowns along with 317 passing yards and 40 rushing yards. Most of the contest was a back-and-forth affair, as markets expected, and the Bills’ defense wasn’t exactly buttoned up. Tampa piled up 21 first downs and 32 points on 367 total yards, including an impressive 9-16 conversion rate on 3rd downs. Once again, the Bills’ front-seven proved it’s not championship caliber right now, allowing 202 rushing yards to a Bucs ground game that’s not highly ranked in that area (22nd).

The Texans won in Week 11 in the exact opposite way, as they do most weeks. Without CJ Stroud, Houston was in a tough position facing a division rival off their bye week, but they did a good job maintaining their composure. In yet another low-scoring game, the Texans managed to eventually gain 315 yards, more than enough to take out a Titans offense that looked pedestrian throughout the contest. The fact that they allowed Tennessee to hang around so long wasn’t a good look, but it was evident that the Texans were clearly the better program. Their defense, which remains the #1 unit in the NFL, was once again their anchor. Surviving the scare, Houston faces a much bigger test at home on just a few days of rest.

While these 2 teams aren’t the same as last season, the Texans won in a low-scoring 23-20 battle the last time they faced off. If they want to have a chance against Allen and the Bills, they’ll need to control the game in the same manner. More than any of the other 3 units in this battle, the Texans’ defense has been the most consistent. We’ll count on them to keep it closer than the market expects.

Bills vs Texans prediction: Texans +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 4.5.

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Chris R. Farley