Filip Tomic

Unlike in previous seasons where he would often run out of gas before even getting to the Conference Finals, this time around Jalen Brunson has gotten a lot more help from his teammates. Unlike Victor Wembanyama on the other side, Brunson has played 3 less full games and it shows. His scoring average and field goal efficiency are both up compared to the regular season, while his three-point shot has also been going in at a relatively efficient clip. He has a knack of doing well from the perimeter against the Spurs, the last 7 meetings have seen him clear this line 5 times.

During the regular season, Brunson shot the deep ball at a 47.4% clip against the Spurs, and he carried the offense in the NBA Cup Final win as well. I’m going with a slightly conservative approach for him in Game 1, making a pair of threes shouldn’t be too big of an ask. He’s done it 58 times in 89 games so far this season (65%), on the road that percentage goes up to 67% (30/45 games).

This is the moment of truth for Karl-Anthony Towns. The moment he arrived to New York City big things were expected from him and he has been under the spotlight ever since. In his first game as a Knick he wore a throwback shirt showing the Spurs vs Knicks NBA Finals match-up from 1999, making this the an ideal full circle moment for the big fella. However, he will have to adapt his game drastically if he wants his team to succeed in this series.

Going up against Victor Wembanyama will be a tall task, especially with Mitchell Robinson dealing with a broken pinky finger on his right hand. That means more minutes for Towns at the center position as the Knicks aren’t exactly equipped with tall centers that can go toe to toe with the alien down low. KAT is averaging 10.6 rebounds per game this postseason, that might look like it’s down compared to the regular season, but only because the Knicks were so good in the last two series that Towns didn’t even have to play his normal minutes. Look for him to be very active in Game 1 and dominante on the glass.

Harper has risen to the occasion this postseason averaging 13.1 points per game which is an increase of 1.3 ppg compared to his season average. On top of that his efficiency also went up by 2% both from the field (52.5%) and from three (36.4%). He should feel right at home in this series, especially in games played at Madison Square Garden, given that he grew up in the tri-state area. I have Harper scoring at least 10 points in the opener as he has done so in 12 of his 18 games so far this postseason. For the season, the over on this bet has cashed 57 times in 88 games — good for a success rate of 65%. I quite like those odds, so let’s include him in our parlay for Game 1.

Playing on a bummed ankle did slow him down a bit, but De’Aaron Fox was still a major contributor in the series win over Oklahoma City, especially in Game 7 where he went off for 15 points and also dished out 5 assists. He finished the series averaging 6.2 dimes per game, which is in line with his postseason average of 5.9 per game. The Knicks had major problems guarding him in the two regular season meetings, his combination of speed and quickness was too much to handle for the likes of Brunson and others trying to contain him.

Fox averaged 6.5 assists in the regular season meetings, while he dished out 9 of them in the NBA Cup matchup, as the Spurs offense went through mostly him and Stephon Castle. Although he has not played on the biggest stage yet, Fox is one of the more experienced players on this Spurs roster and I’m convinced that’ll have a massive impact on the rest of his teammates as they try to feed off his playmaking.