Germantas Kneita
Pickswise ExpertGermantas's Picks
Brook Lopez has been one of the best shot blockers in the league this season, but tonight’s matchup against Victor Wembanyama should make it tough for him to thrive in that category. The Frenchman is one of the few players in the league who has the size to comfortably get his shot off over Lopez. His floor spacing ability will also drag him away from the paint, where he can be an influence as a help defender. He has played against the Spurs twice this season, going blockless once and recording 2 in the other. With this being a tough matchup, expect a quite night from Lopez in this category.
Coming into tonight’s game against the Pistons, Rudy Gobert has been able to record 11 or more rebounds in 6 of his last 7 games. That includes a 12-rebound performance against this very same opponent. His matchup will remain the same in this one, facing off against Jalen Duren. While the Pistons center is having an incredibly productive season, his lack of floor spacing ability should allow the Frenchman to remain in great rebounding position throughout the night. Gobert having a size advantage over his opponent should help too. Over the last 10 games these sides are also both in the top 5 in defensive rating. That means there should be no shortage of misses to chase down on both end of the court for him.
Portland Trail Blazers center Donavan Clingan is coming into tonight’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans after 2 subpar performances. However, this is a perfect opportunity for him to bounce back. He has recorded 2 double-digit rebounding games against them this season already, tallying 15 in the latest contest. The Pelicans have had issues on the rebounding front too. Over the last 10 games they are 27th in opponent offensive rebounds per game. Considering that Clingan leads the league among all players in total offensive rebounds, he should be able to use this to pad his stats in that category. Yves Missi and Derik Queen will be matched up against him, but both give up a huge size advantage to him. It is hard to see them keeping him off the glass here.
The Portland Trail Blazers have been flying of late. They have won 7 of their last 10 games and have been by far the best team in the league in defensive rating during that stretch. It is no surprise that they have been able to hold 7 opponents under 105 points during that time. Tonight, they will host a New Orleans Pelicans team that could be heading into this contest without one of their leading scorers. Trey Murphy III has missed their last 3 games and is listed as questionable ahead of this one. The Pelicans suffered double-digit losses in each of those games that he missed.
In their last game, the Pelicans got completely dominated on the glass by the Houston Rockets, being out-rebounded 59-36. They gave up 22 offensive rebounds in the process. They now take on a team that is 3rd in rebounding percentage over the last 10 games, and Donovan Clingan has been a major part of that. The center also leads the league in total offensive rebounds this season. With him in the fold, the Pelicans should leak second-chance points and be held to one possession on most offensive trips. With how well this Trail Blazers team has been defending, it should set them up perfectly to cover the spread at home tonight.
Pelicans vs Trail Blazers prediction: Trail Blazers -6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -8.5.
The fact that the Nuggets are being ignored to this extent by the oddsmakers is shocking. They pushed the Thunder to 7 games this postseason and still have Nikola Jokic, the player who averaged a triple-double last season and was the rightful MVP in many people’s eyes. They might need to move on from Michael Porter Jr., however. If they can do that and use the cap space to supplement their depth, they will be a dangerous opponent for any team in the league.
Aaron Gordon has shown he can be the 3rd option on a great team and Christian Braun has turned himself into a great defender and a great off-ball cutter. This team might only be a couple of shooters away from rising back to the top of the league. Jokic is entering his prime years and the Nuggets have new management in place. Expect them to make win-now moves to supplement their superstar. I don’t think there is a player in the league who can elevate the play of the supporting cast more than the Serbian. He should have the Nuggets challenging in 2026.
