Javan Shouey
Pickswise ExpertJavan's Picks
I favor the Pittsburgh Pirates over the San Francisco Giants on Sunday. For starters, I believe the Pirates are the better team with the more realistic postseason outlook in 2026. Secondly, their offense is in far better form against right-handed pitching, ranking 7th in wOBA compared to the Giants — who rank dead last. Lastly, Pittsburgh’s pitching situation is more enticing with a pitcher-friendly park to mask their starter’s biggest concern, and all 3 of their high-leverage relief options off consecutive days of rest.
Bubba Chandler has been the weakest part of the Pirates starting rotation in 2026. They are just 2-5 in his starts, as the right-hander has posted a 4.76 ERA through his 34 innings of work. His 5.12 xERA is not an encouraging mark, but this matchup is the best get-right spot in the sport right now. The Giants offense is as anemic as there is currently, and this park is designed to keep the ball in the park.
Tyler Mahle has a 5.00 ERA and 4.67 xERA in his first 36 innings this season. Like Chandler, Mahle has been issuing too many free passes, and Pittsburgh has been a very patient lineup. Pittsburgh averages the 8th-most pitches per plate appearance as a team, and they have the 5th-highest walk rate against right-handed pitching. That combined with Mahle’s 19th-percentile whiff rate, and I expect another strong offensive outing from this Pirates lineup.
Pirates vs Giants prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115.
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Cristopher Sanchez should absolutely annihilate the Colorado Rockies on Sunday. The 6-foot-6 southpaw is off to another tremendous start in 2026 for the Phillies, boasting a 2.42 ERA and 2.38 FIP through his first 48.1 innings of work. Among his 8 starts, 6 have come in his home park, and he is set to make his 7th home start on Sunday. Sanchez has a 1.18 ERA in 38 home innings so far, and overall, he is sporting a 94th-percentile ground ball rate. He is also earning strikeouts and avoiding free passes. Colorado has a 75 wRC+ and a 30.1% strikeout rate against southpaw pitching this season.
The price on Philadelphia is -300 or greater if you want to back them; that’s a bit too rich for me. I am not laying significant juice on a -1.5-run line bet, either, so let’s pivot to a total. I favor the under in this game, as the Phillies offense hasn’t exactly been stellar. So far this season, they sit 20th in wOBA with a 97 wRC+ against righties, and Tomoyuki Sugano has been solid for the Rockies — 3.41 ERA in his first 37 innings and a 1.69 ERA in 16 innings on the road. He isn’t my favorite pitcher to back, but he is throwing strikes and earning ground balls, which should be useful in this spot. Let’s avoid the bullpens and focus on the first 5 innings of play with this under.
Rockies vs Phillies prediction: First 5 innings under 4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
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Sunday’s matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and the Houston Astros is not my favorite game from a betting perspective, though it could be a fun game to attend in person if the total pans out how I foresee. Andrew Abbott has had a rough start to his 2026 campaign for the Reds. A Cincinnati rotation that has missed Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene needed Abbott to step up and produce like he had in previous seasons, but instead, he is off to the worst start of his young career — a 5.13 ERA and 5.34 xERA through 40.1 innings. His 19 walks to just 28 strikeouts is a worrisome ratio, and his batted-ball profile is just mediocre. Houston is without Carlos Correa now, but they rank 9th in wOBA with a 111 wRC+ against southpaw pitching so far this year.
Houston’s pitching staff is worrisome as a whole, and with a bullpen game lined up on Sunday, I am not fond of their current situation. Kai-Wei Teng has been solid in his 23 innings with a 2.35 ERA, but he has yet to work more than 3 innings in any outing this season. Behind him is a Houston bullpen that ranks dead last with a 6.12 ERA and 5.64 FIP. Cincinnati’s bullpen has not been much better with a 4.55 ERA and 4.99 FIP.
Reds vs Astros prediction: Over 9 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to that price.
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Wind is blowing out towards right-center field with temperatures in the low 80’s for Sunday’s matchup between the Athletics and the Orioles. Baltimore has lost the first 2 games of this series and 8 of their last 10 games overall. Meanwhile, the Athletics have won their last 3 games and have the starting pitching edge on Sunday.
Luis Severino is set to make his 9th start of the season, and he enters this game in better form than his counterpart. His 4.15 ERA and 4.51 FIP aren’t the most attractive marks, but he has allowed just 3 earned runs combined in his last 3 starts. Those 18.2 innings against the Phillies, Royals, and Rangers included an increase in ground ball rate and only 5 walks issued.
Baltimore is 17th in wOBA with a 102 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. I could definitely see Severino allowing a couple of earned runs, but I am more fond of the matchup for the Athletics offense — as the A’s sit 5th in wOBA with a 110 wRC+ against right-handers in 2026.
Chris Bassitt will start for Baltimore, and he has been shaky so far this season. His 5.91 ERA and 5.16 FIP are the product of a 5th-percentile K% and 6th-percentile xBA. He allowed 4 earned runs across 4 innings to the Marlins last time out — his 4th start this season with 4 or more earned runs allowed. Give me the Athletics in this game.
Athletics vs Orioles prediction: Athletics ML (-108) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
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