Kevin Rogers

These teams went in opposite directions from a total standpoint, as the Chargers were 11-6 to the under, compared to an 11-6 mark to the over for the Patriots. Los Angeles hit the under in each of the first 5 games before eclipsing the over in the next 4 contests. Meanwhile, New England closed things out with 9 overs in the final 11 games, while going 6-1 to the over in the last 7 contests at Gillette Stadium. The Pats scored at least 24 points in each of their final 12 games, including topping the 30-point mark in each of their last 3 home contests.

The Chargers were excellent defensively this season, ranking 5th in total yards allowed (285.2) and 5th in passing yards allowed per game (179.9). Los Angeles gave up 20 or fewer points in 9 of the final 10 games, as the one outlier came in a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville in Week 11. QB Justin Herbert eclipsed the 4,000-yard passing mark in each of his first 3 seasons, but has failed to reach that plateau in the last 3 years. Herbert finished with 3,727 yards, while tossing 26 TDs, his most since 2021.

The Patriots finished with 379.4 yards per game, good for 3rd in the NFL. It was an amazing turnaround after finishing 31st in the league last season in that category with 291.9 yards per game. It will be a tough task against this Chargers defense, but the Patriots have shown they can score and move the ball with Drake Maye running the show. This total has moved up to 46, and these offenses are capable of reaching this number on Sunday night at Gillette Stadium.

Chargers vs Patriots pick: Over 46 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Niners went 10-7 to the over this season, while the Eagles posted a 10-7 under mark for the second consecutive year. Six of San Francisco’s 9 road games cashed the over, as the 49ers topped the 34-point mark in 3 of the final 4 away contests. In the 2 road games against playoff teams, San Francisco allowed a total of 36 points to Seattle and Los Angeles. Philadelphia went 5-3 to the under at home, while allowing 21 or less 5 times. Down the stretch, the Eagles scored fewer than 21 points in 7 of 9 games.

The Eagles ranked 8th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (189.8), facing a 49ers offense that placed 5th in passing yards even though starting QB Brock Purdy played in only 9 games. Purdy averaged 240.7 passing yards in his 9 appearances, while backup Mac Jones put up 268.8 passing yards in his 8 starts. Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts threw for more yards this season (3,224) than in last season’s Super Bowl run (2,903), but averaged a shade over 200 yards passing.

This total sits at 44.5 as Philadelphia finished with a 7-2 under ledger in the final 9 games. One of those overs came in the season finale against Washington on a 38.5 total; the Commanders scored a pair of 4th-quarter TDs in a 24-17 win. The Niners compiled a 3-1 under mark on the road with a total of 45 or less. Each of the last 3 playoff openers for Philadelphia have finished under the total with combined totals of 45, 41, and 32. Let’s look at the under here in a game with both teams staying in the low-20’s.

49ers vs Eagles prediction: Under 44.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 44.

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Neither of these rivals put up convincing total records either way, as Green Bay went 9-8 to the over and Chicago posted a 9-8 mark to the under. The Packers hit the over in 6 of their first 7 road games before consecutive unders to close the season. It’s easy to throw out Week 18 at Minnesota, as QB Jordan Love sat out a 16-3 loss, but the Pack stayed under in the Week 15 overtime loss at Chicago, too. The Bears rallied late to force overtime and stun the Packers, 22-16, as the total of 44.5 was never threatened.

Chicago hit the over in the season-opening loss to Minnesota, but the Bears cashed the under in 6 of the final 7 games played at Soldier Field. The Bears yielded 19 or fewer points in each of the last 3 home outings, while giving up 20 or less points in 6 of the final 8 games. Packers star LB Micah Parsons tore up his knee in the Week 15 loss at Denver, but Green Bay gave up 22 points or fewer points in 2 of the final 3 games. The under has hit in each of the Packers’ last 2 playoff games, including in last season’s 22-10 defeat at Philadelphia with a 46 total.

The Bears were feast or famine on the defensive side, intercepting a league-high 23 passes, but ranking 29th in yards allowed at 361.8 per game. Chicago gave up 134 yards per game on the ground, but Green Bay sat in the middle of the league with 119.8 rushing yards per contest. The 45.5 total is the highest for the 3 matchups this season, with the over of 43.5 hitting in Green Bay and the under of 44 cashing in Chicago. Let’s look at the under here for a grind-it-out Wild Card matchup between the Packers and Bears.

Packers vs Bears pick: Under 45.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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