2021 March Madness: Pickswise Supercomputer projects 26 underdogs to cover

Ohio Bobcats guard Jason Preston (0) drives to the basket against Toledo Rockets guard Keshaun Saunders (24) during the first half at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
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Andrew Wilsher

NCAAB · 1 year ago

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Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer, and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan.

One of the main reasons we love March Madness? Cinderella. There’s nothing like the drama of a great underdog story, whether Richmond or UMBC in the first round, George Mason or Loyola advancing to the Final Four or Villanova and N.C. State cutting ‘em down. Seems highly likely in a year like this that we’re going to see a few new chapters added to the story.

While we know it is completely rational, the Pickswise Supercomputer seems to have a bit of sentimentality, as well. Because if you’re looking to lay a few on today’s and tomorrow’s first-round games, our supercomputer’s machine learning and deep analysis has a consistent recommendation: Take. The. Dog. Yup, take the points, run to the bank and get ready for the second half of the weekend. 

In fact, the Supercomputer, which simulates each game more than 10,000 times, has only landed on just three favorites among the 32 games this weekend (UNC, Florida, and Colorado). Meanwhile, it is recommending you take the underdog and the points in 26 of the games (with 3 as pushes).

This includes taking every team seeded 13 and higher. So that means taking, all of the 16-seeds: Norfolk State and the 33.5 points against top-ranked Gonzaga, Drexel and the 22.5 points against Illinois, Hartford and the 25.5 points against Baylor, and Texas Southern and the 26 points against Michigan.

Has our Supercomputer sniffed out oddsmakers’ favoring of the favorites? Here’s a complete look at its analysis of games on Friday and Saturday.

Team 1 Team 2 Projected score Spread winner
Drexel +22.5 Illinois 62-81 Drexel
Virginia Tech +1 Florida 66-69 Florida
Colgate +9.5 Arkansas 76-83 Colgate
Oral Roberts +16.5 Ohio State 71-84 Oral Roberts
Utah State +4.5 Texas Tech 65-68 Utah State
Hartford +26 Baylor 59-80 Hartford
Georgia Tech +4.5 Loyola Chicago
Oregon State +7.5 Tennessee 63-70 Oregon State
Wisconsin +1.5 North Carolina 67-70 North Carolina
Liberty +7.5 Oklahoma State 67-74 Liberty
North Texas +7.5 Purdue 61-67 North Texas
Cleveland State +20 Houston 59-75 Cleveland State
Syracuse +3 San Diego State 67-70 Tie
Rutgers -2.5 Clemson 64-63 Clemson
Morehead State +12.5 West Virginia 64-75 Morehead State
Winthrop +6.5 Villanova 68-74 Winthrop
UNC Greensboro +10.5 Florida State 69-78 UNC Greensboro
Georgetown +4.5 Colorado 66-72 Colorado
Eastern Washington +10.5 Kansas 69-78 Eastern Washington
St Bonaventue +1.5 LSU 71-72 St. Bonaventure
UCSB +7.5 Creighton 66-73 UCSB
Iona +16.5 Alabama 65-81 Iona
Grand Canyon +14.5 Iowa 66-79 Grand Canyon
Maryland +3 Connecticut 64-66 Maryland
Ohio +8.5 Virginia 62-70 Ohio
Missouri +1.5 Oklahoma 70-71 Missouri
Abilene Christian +9 Texas 66-74 Abilene Christian
VCU +5.5 Oregon 66-70 VCU
Texas Southern +25.5 Michigan 61-82 Texas Southern
Drake +6 USC 67-72 Drake
Norfolk State +33.5 Gonzaga 62-90 Norfolk State
UCLA +3 BYU 69-71 UCLA

 

The Pickswise Supercomputer calculates pre-game college basketball probabilities using machine learning techniques into a Monte Carlo method. This means that our computer takes statistics and simulates a college basketball game over 10,000 times to cater to a deep range of outcomes and probabilities during the game.

It first runs individual player simulations based on various stats which we then combine to create simulated match outcomes. The probabilities and predictions are dynamic and updated in real-time with new statistics added all the time and taking into external factors such as team news, and betting lines as they change and become available.

*All lines based on FanDuel’s published lines as of Thursday, March 18.

Pickswise is the home of March Madness Predictions. Check out all of our March Madness Picks, including daily March Madness Parlays throughout the NCAA Tournament.

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