2021 March Madness: Pickswise Supercomputer projects 26 underdogs to cover
One of the main reasons we love March Madness? Cinderella. There’s nothing like the drama of a great underdog story, whether Richmond or UMBC in the first round, George Mason or Loyola advancing to the Final Four or Villanova and N.C. State cutting ‘em down. Seems highly likely in a year like this that we’re going to see a few new chapters added to the story.
While we know it is completely rational, the Pickswise Supercomputer seems to have a bit of sentimentality, as well. Because if you’re looking to lay a few on today’s and tomorrow’s first-round games, our supercomputer’s machine learning and deep analysis has a consistent recommendation: Take. The. Dog. Yup, take the points, run to the bank and get ready for the second half of the weekend.
In fact, the Supercomputer, which simulates each game more than 10,000 times, has only landed on just three favorites among the 32 games this weekend (UNC, Florida, and Colorado). Meanwhile, it is recommending you take the underdog and the points in 26 of the games (with 3 as pushes).
This includes taking every team seeded 13 and higher. So that means taking, all of the 16-seeds: Norfolk State and the 33.5 points against top-ranked Gonzaga, Drexel and the 22.5 points against Illinois, Hartford and the 25.5 points against Baylor, and Texas Southern and the 26 points against Michigan.
Has our Supercomputer sniffed out oddsmakers’ favoring of the favorites? Here’s a complete look at its analysis of games on Friday and Saturday.
|Team 1||Team 2||Projected score||Spread winner|
|Virginia Tech +1||Florida||66-69||Florida|
|Oral Roberts +16.5||Ohio State||71-84||Oral Roberts|
|Utah State +4.5||Texas Tech||65-68||Utah State|
|Georgia Tech +4.5||Loyola Chicago|
|Oregon State +7.5||Tennessee||63-70||Oregon State|
|Wisconsin +1.5||North Carolina||67-70||North Carolina|
|Liberty +7.5||Oklahoma State||67-74||Liberty|
|North Texas +7.5||Purdue||61-67||North Texas|
|Cleveland State +20||Houston||59-75||Cleveland State|
|Syracuse +3||San Diego State||67-70||Tie|
|Morehead State +12.5||West Virginia||64-75||Morehead State|
|UNC Greensboro +10.5||Florida State||69-78||UNC Greensboro|
|Eastern Washington +10.5||Kansas||69-78||Eastern Washington|
|St Bonaventue +1.5||LSU||71-72||St. Bonaventure|
|Grand Canyon +14.5||Iowa||66-79||Grand Canyon|
|Abilene Christian +9||Texas||66-74||Abilene Christian|
|Texas Southern +25.5||Michigan||61-82||Texas Southern|
|Norfolk State +33.5||Gonzaga||62-90||Norfolk State|
The Pickswise Supercomputer calculates pre-game college basketball probabilities using machine learning techniques into a Monte Carlo method. This means that our computer takes statistics and simulates a college basketball game over 10,000 times to cater to a deep range of outcomes and probabilities during the game.
It first runs individual player simulations based on various stats which we then combine to create simulated match outcomes. The probabilities and predictions are dynamic and updated in real-time with new statistics added all the time and taking into external factors such as team news, and betting lines as they change and become available.
*All lines based on FanDuel’s published lines as of Thursday, March 18.