All of a sudden, the college basketball season is right around the corner, as we return to action on Monday, November 3rd with a full hoops card. Led by their 4-headed frontcourt monster and a brand-new backcourt, the Florida Gators set out to defend their title with extremely high expectations yet again this season. As for the runners-up, the Houston Cougars will always have high expectations under Kelvin Sampson. This year, they strive to return to the Final Four, though they hope to finally be the ones to cut down the final net of the year. Meanwhile, the 2024 title game participants, UConn and Purdue, as well as bluebloods Kentucky and Duke all re-stocked the cupboard in the offseason in anticipation of a deep run in March.
This is the beginning of a very long season, as there is so much to learn about how all of the coaching changes will take shape and how transfers will fit into their new surroundings. That being said, let’s scan the 2025-2026 men’s college basketball national championship oddsboard to see if we can find a couple teams that appear of value before the ball is tipped on Monday. Once the season officially returns, make sure you check back daily for our NCAAB predictions on all of the biggest college hoops matchups throughout the season.
2025-2026 College Basketball National Championship Odds
Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing.
- Purdue Boilermakers +900
- Houston Cougars +1000
- Duke Blue Devils +1200
- UConn Huskies +1400
- Florida Gators +1600
- Kentucky Wildcats +1600
- BYU Cougars +1800
- Michigan Wolverines +1800
- St. John’s Red Storm +1800
- Kansas Jayhawks +2000
- Louisville Cardinals +2200
- Texas Tech Red Raiders +2200
- Arkansas Razorbacks +2500
- Auburn Tigers +2500
- Arizona Wildcats +2800
- Alabama Crimson Tide +3300
- Illinois Fighting Illini +3500
- Tennessee Volunteers +3500
- UCLA Bruins +3500
- Iowa State Cyclones +4000
- Michigan State Spartans +4000
- North Carolina Tar Heels +4000
- Gonzaga Bulldogs +4500
- Everyone else +5000 or more
CBB best bet: Louisville Cardinals to win the National Championship +2500
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing.
When it comes to preseason title bets, I usually look for a team in the 20/1 to 40/1 range that I feel could play its way into a 10/1 range heading into the NCAA Tournament come March. Truthfully, I really don’t like tying my money up on futures for half a year at anything under 20/1. Of course, exceptions can be made, but in college basketball, so much value can be found in the betting market early in the season. For example, if you acted early enough last year (before Christmas), you could have gotten Florida at better than 40/1 to cut down the nets. All this to say, I’m skipping every team currently listed at less than 20/1, which isn’t exactly that tough to do considering you can poke holes in every one of those teams maybe aside from Purdue – who admittedly feels like the team to beat at a less-than-appealing preseason price.
The one team I keep coming back to in this 20/1 to 40/1 range is Louisville. Pat Kelsey’s overnight turnaround of this program was remarkable to watch last year, and I can confidently say this program is back to where it should be in the college basketball world. For reference, the ‘Cards won 27 games last year after winning just 8 in the 2023-2024 season, made the ACC Championship Game and earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament. They will lose a few key significant pieces in Chucky Hepburn, Terrance Edwards, Reyne Smith and James Scott, but I love what Kelsey did to fill the voids left by those departures.
J’Vonne Hadley will be the only returning starter on the roster this year, though frontcourt mates Kasean Pryor and Aly Khalifa were with the program and missed most, if not all of the 2024-2025 season due to injury and redshirt, respectively. At the very least, they are familiar with the Kelsey system, as Pryor provides defensive depth in the paint while Khalifa is an offensive maestro for his size. Newcomer Sananda Fru will also be in the mix, a 22-year old international that played professionally in Germany’s Basketball Bundesliga and with the Germany U20 national team. While he is new to the college game, he provides loads of high-level experience against European pros.
The backcourt will be completely new, but I feel the upside with this year’s group of guards is higher than last – at least offensively. Kelsey brought in Ryan Conwell from Xavier and Isaac McKneely from Virginia, who are two of the best pure shooters in the country – each connecting on over 41% of his perimeter shots. Look for them to thrive playing off the ball, next to 5-star freshman and consensus top-10 recruit Mikal Brown Jr. Brown is one of the next rising stars in the sport who displays shiftiness with the ball in his hands, in addition to an exceptional ability to score and facilitate – whether it be in the paint or beyond the arc. Behind him on the depth chart will be Adrian Wooley from Kennesaw State, who, like Conwell and McKneely, knocked down more than 41% of his perimeter shots last year, and was one of the better facilitators at the mid-major level.
Overall, defense is a concern with this team, but you aren’t going to find a perfect profile at 25/1. They certainly won’t be bad defensively, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals will be able to crack the revered top 20 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency come March. One thing I do know is that Louisville will excel on the offensive end, where it likely has more upside than it did a season ago. With all the new additions, the ‘Cards should improve dramatically on their 223rd-rated 3-point offense this year (32.8%), which would make them a tough out in the NCAA Tournament – especially on a quick turnaround given Louisville’s expected pace and consistent effort on the boards. If all the new pieces hit, this team has Final Four/Championship upside, which is all I’m looking for at the beginning of the season and at this price.
CBB longshot bet: San Diego State Aztecs to win the National Championship +10000
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
You could do a lot worse things with your money than investing in Brian Dutcher and a San Diego State basketball program that has repeatedly had success in March dating back to when Steve Fisher was the coach. The Aztecs have reached the NCAA tournament in all but 1 season since Dutcher took over in 2018, and they even reached the Championship Game in 2023 – falling short of the title against the UConn Huskies. That 2023 run was no fluke, as they made it all the way to the Sweet 16 last year with much less depth and offense than they figure to have at their disposal this year.
First things first, it’s massive that the reigning Mountain West Freshman of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year, Magoon Gwath, returned to San Diego State following his monstrous first season with the program. Many thought he would transfer to a power conference, but he remained with Dutcher and the Aztecs to run it back this year after averaging 2.6 blocks per game and finishing 3rd in the Mountain West in Evan Miya’s defensive rating. In fact, Gwath ranked 4th out of 2,306 Division 1 players in block rate last year according to KenPom, and yet he still wasn’t even the best defensive player in the conference per Evan Miya’s metrics. It was Miles Byrd who finished as the top-rated defensive player in the Mountain West, as well as 12th nationally according to Evan Miya’s numbers.
Like Gwath, Byrd returned to San Diego to run it back with the Aztecs, providing them with an anchor on both ends of the floor given his ability to attack the basket on offense while giving opposing guards fits as a defender. Byrd and Gwath are joined on the All-Mountain West Preseason team by a third Aztec in Reese Waters, who was part of SDSU’s 2023 title-game run and was supposed to buoy the offense last year before sustaining a season-long injury.
The Aztecs are known for their defense, and they’re going to have plenty of it again this year with Gwath and Byrd back in the mix. However, retaining BJ Davis and Pharoah Compton is also huge for this San Diego State defense, as they combined for 2 steals and 0.7 blocks per game last year despite Compton only averaging about 13 minutes of run. Meanwhile, there is size behind Gwath on the depth chart with junior Miles Heide, freshman Thokbor Majak and DePaul transfer Jeremiah Oden.
The offensive side of the court is where San Diego State always seems to struggle. With Waters healthy and Byrd back, the Aztecs already seem to at least be level to where they were last year on this end of the court. However, a couple of transfer portal additions increase the offensive ceiling of this team a decent bit. Guard Sean Newmann transferred in from Louisiana Tech after finishing 5th in the country in assist rate and connecting on nearly 85% of his free throws, as he will likely fill in as a much-needed facilitator on a team that so desperately lacked one last year. Joining him is San Jose State transfer Latrell Davis, who averaged just north of 11 points per game and shot over 38% from deep while averaging 25 minutes a night with the Spartans.
All things considered, we absolutely know what we’re getting with Dutcher and the Aztecs. They will be one of the top 10 or 15 defenses in the country all year long, and with so much returning leadership and an influx of much-needed offensive pieces, the ceiling is the limit for a San Diego State team that went as far as it could go without reaching the mountain top in 2023. This is a tremendous value on a program that has veteran guards, a coach that has led a team deep in the tournament, and an established identity with proven success in March. I was able to lock this in at 150/1 on Wednesday, October 29, but futures lines move very quickly – especially ones at this number. Pounce on anything 100/1 or better quickly; 75/1 is probably my cut-off.
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