Sam Avellone

The Indiana Hoosiers will take a break from conference play when they head to Rupp Arena to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday night. The Hoosiers boast an 8-2 SU record, but have lost 2 of their last 3. They were able to snap a short, 2-game losing streak with a convincing 113-72 home win over Penn State on Tuesday in which they dropped an eye-opening 1.55 points per possession on 83% shooting from two-point range and nearly 55% from three-point range. Meanwhile, Kentucky was also able to snap a mini 2-game losing streak with its own convincing win on Tuesday, but that victory was over North Carolina Central, not a power conference opponent. 

Let’s call a spade a spade here, Kentucky hasn’t been very good against high-level opponents this year. In fact, the Wildcats are 0-4 SU against the 4 top-25 opponents they’ve played per KenPom’s rankings, which includes a 67-64 home loss to North Carolina just a few days before they were absolutely obliterated by Gonzaga 94-59 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.

When I wrote and published my Saturday best bet article last night, this line was at 5.5. Now sitting around 2.5 points, there’s not much value left on the spread, so let’s pivot to the money line. This is not a Kentucky defense that I trust at all in step-up games, especially on the perimeter where the Wildcats sit 223rd in three-point rate allowed. That’s not exactly a recipe for success against an Indiana team that can flat-out shoot the ball. The Hoosiers are top-40 in both three-point rate and three-point percentage, and while we haven’t quite seen that efficiency from deep on the road yet this year, Kentucky is likely to give them plenty of chances to heat up from range.

Indiana vs Kentucky prediction: Indiana Hoosiers ML (+134) at the time of publishing. Playable to +110.

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The MEAC champion has won 6 of 9 Celebration Bowls since its inception in 2015, but the SWAC has taken the last 2. South Carolina State was on the short end last year when the Bulldogs lost 28-7 to the Jackson State Tigers in what was an ugly outing. The Bulldogs tallied just 178 total yards, converted 2 of 13 third downs, and averaged just 1.6 yards per rush alongside 4.4 yards per pass. It was a stark difference from their 2021 appearance, when they handled the very same Jackson State program 31-10 – run by Deion Sanders at the time with young Shedeur under center. 

I’m expecting much of the same offensive struggles this year for SC State. Prairie View A&M is one of the best defensive units at the FCS level, sitting 3rd in scoring (16.15 ppg) and total defense (267.5 ypg). Moreover, they lead the FCS in opposing 3rd-down conversion rate (29.2%), sit 3rd in opposing passing efficiency, and rank 7th in first-down defense. Considering the Bulldogs deploy a heavy passing attack, moving the ball down the field against this Panthers pass defense is a tough ask. Look for Prairie View A&M to control the game with a methodical rushing attack and its lockdown defense.

By all indications, Washington running back Jonah Coleman will be active for this game. Obviously, we don’t know how many snaps he will take. There’s a chance he plays for a drive, a quarter, a half, or the full game. Unless we’re explicitly told ahead of time, we will never know. His anytime touchdown odds are a little too juicy for me to consider with the playing time uncertainty, even for a Same Game Parlay. However, his 2+ touchdown odds are much more palatable. 

Coleman has scored multiple touchdowns 4 different times this year, and he has a very juicy matchup against a Boise State run defense that is outside the top 100 in PPA per rush and outside the top 65 in rushing success rate since the end of October.

First, make sure you always shop around for futures odds. From what I can find, +4000 is the best number in the market as of Sunday, August 3, and it’s as low as +3000 at some books. I know a bet at +4000 isn’t necessarily what you would consider a “longshot” by definition, but relative to the rest of the field, it at least feels like a “longer” shot with solid value based on everything Texas A&M has going for it coming into the season. The Aggies are top 10 nationally in overall returning production, and 1 of only 6 teams that have at least 70% of their 2024 production back on both sides of the ball.

Marcell Reed likely steps into a full-time starting role and will play behind an offensive line that returns all 5 of its starters to go along with an incoming top 35 overall 5-star recruit. Not many quarterbacks have that luxury in the transfer portal era. Reed is a dual-threat quarterback and will lead a rushing attack that should give opposing defenses fits, considering its entire running back room returns, namely Le’Veon Moss, Amari Daniels and Rueben Owens. As a passer, Reed left much to be desired at times, but Mike Elko brought in a handful of new pass-catching options for him, including highly sought NC State transfer KC Concepcion, Mississippi State transfer Mario Craver and 5-star freshman Jerome Myles. On paper, this unit feels vastly improved from last year.

On the other side of the ball, Texas A&M has 74% of its production back from a unit that was top 25 in success rate, havoc rate, and points allowed per opposing scoring opportunity in 2024. There is certainly plenty of room for this unit to improve, but you can see the vision. Another year in the defensive-minded Elko’s system should pay dividends for a group returning so much talent, in addition to its incoming Top 10 recruiting class and top 12 transfer portal class.

So what’s the catch then? Why are the Aggies as long as 40/1 with so much supposed talent on the roster? It’s because of their schedule. They have to play Notre Dame, LSU and Texas on the road, and the trip to LSU is immediately following their trip to Arkansas. Also, Texas A&M is one of the few power conference teams I found with 3 straight road games at any point this season, even if 2 of them should be more than winnable. It doesn’t get easier at home, either, as the Aggies welcome Auburn, Florida and South Carolina to Kyle Field, 2 of whom they lost to last year. This feels like a team with 10-2 upside that can sneak into the CFP as an at-large bid if everything goes right on the field, but the floor could be as low as 6-6. I’ll take a shot on the upside; buyer beware.