Sam Avellone
A league that formerly included programs like Cincinnati, Louisville, UAB, Memphis, Tulane, and Houston, Conference USA was once regarded as one of the better non-power football conferences. Over the last 20 years, there has been ample turnover in CUSA, as realignment continues to change the college football landscape — which has downgraded the talent level in the conference as a whole. In that span, CUSA has seemingly become a gateway for FCS teams to move into the FBS, as about half of its current members were in the FCS within the last 20 years. In fact, Liberty, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston State, and Kennesaw State all made the jump to the FBS within the last 8 years, and that trend will continue this year with the addition of Delaware and Missouri State — who will have to serve the NCAA-mandated 2-year transition period before being eligible for the postseason starting in 2027.
Now that we know who will be competing in this conference this year, let’s take a look at the Conference USA oddsboard, deep dive the contenders in the conference, and cap it off with an NCAAF best bet.
2025 Conference USA Championship Odds
Odds courtesy of Bet365 at the time of publishing.
- Liberty Flames +120
- Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +350
- Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +800
- Jacksonville State Gamecocks +850
- Sam Houston State Bearkats +1000
- FIU Owls +1400
- UTEP Miners +1400
- Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +1800
- New Mexico State Aggies +2500
- Kennesaw State Owls +3300
- Delaware Blue Hens N/A
- Missouri State Bears N/A
2025 CUSA Contenders – Will Liberty bounce back to 2023 form?
Liberty Flames +120
The Flames reached the top of the metaphorical Group of 5 mountain in 2023 when they finished with a perfect 12-0 regular season record en route to a Conference USA championship and a trip to the Fiesta Bowl to face Oregon. Sure, they got smoked by the Ducks in that game, but the overall body of work highlighted how high Liberty’s ceiling can be under coach Jamey Chadwell. Then last year happened. The Flames dropped to 8-4, including a 27-24 loss to FBS-newcomer Kennesaw State that seemingly derailed their season, while quarterback Kaidon Salter regressed in a massive way compared to his 2023 campaign.
With both coordinators retained, Chadwell enters his 3rd season at Liberty and expects his program to get back to conference champion status. Salter is off to Colorado to replace Shedeur Sanders, so Chadwell hit the portal to bring in former Coastal Carolina quarterback Ethan Vasko — a player that Chadwell actually recruited before leaving Coastal for Liberty. Vasko is part of a transfer portal class that ranks 5th in CUSA per 247 Sports, and joins an offense that returns almost 60% of its production after finishing top 3 in the conference in scoring and total offense. He will play behind an offensive line that brings back 3 starters, and he will be throwing to a group of pass-catchers that will have 5 of its top 6 pieces back from a season ago, in addition to UNLV transfer Casey Cain and Colorado State transfer Jamari Person.
Vasko offers upside as a runner, which should help this offense tremendously considering it lost its top 2 rushers in Quinton Cooley and Billy Lucas, a duo that combined for almost 2,000 yards and 18 touchdowns while averaging nearly 6 yards per attempt. Look for senior tailback Julian Gray to step into the lead role this year with youngsters Vaughn Blue and Caden Williams rotating in as needed.
On the defensive side of the ball, Liberty returns 59% of its production after finishing 4th in Conference USA in scoring and total defense. Nearly half of the starters are gone, including leading pass-rusher TJ Bush, but leading-tackler Joseph Carter returns, and multiple power-conference transfers are competing for spots on the 2-deep. Despite all of the roster turnover, there is a veteran feel to this defense, as all but 1 of the projected starters are juniors or seniors. In fact, there are multiple seniors on this defense who have been with this program for their entire collegiate football career, which is invaluable in the transfer portal era. Look for seniors CJ Bazile Jr. and Bryce Dixon to anchor the defensive line in front of Carter, while Amarian Williams, A’Khori Jones, Brylan Green, and Dexter Ricks Jr headline a veteran-laden secondary.
Liberty’s schedule is once again one of the easiest in the country. The Flames won’t have to play a single power conference opponent, and their most challenging non-conference game will be at home. In conference play, they will benefit from avoiding Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State during the regular season, while drawing an early-season meeting with Jacksonville State — which will have a completely new roster and staff this season after Rich Rodriguez left to reunite with West Virginia. Liberty’s biggest challenge in CUSA figures to be its road trip to Louisiana Tech, as it is the 2nd of back-to-back road trips. Overall, this team looks better on paper than every team in its conference and could make a run at its 2nd undefeated regular season in 3 years.
See our expert’s pair of Heisman best bets, including a +6000 longshot!
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +350
Tyson Helton enters his 7th season at Western Kentucky, though the staff under him will look a bit different this year. Da’Von Brown and Davis Merritt are in their 3rd seasons with WKU, but it’s their first as co-defensive coordinators. Meanwhile, Rick Bowie joins the staff as offensive coordinator after leading Abilene Christian to its first FCS Playoff appearance with one of the top passing attacks at that level. While Western Kentucky ranks outside the top 115 in overall returning production, it will have the #4 freshman class in the conference along with the top-rated transfer portal class.
Headlining said transfer portal class is quarterback Maverick McIvor, who followed Bowie from Abilene Christian. McIvor was one of the best passers in the FCS last season, throwing for more than 3,800 yards with 30 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He clearly is comfortable in Bowie’s system, but the promotion to the FBS ranks won’t be easy for him. There is only 1 returning starter blocking for him on the offensive line, WKU’s top rusher is gone, and he will be throwing to a group of pass-catchers that lost its top 4 assets in the offseason. As many as 8 or 9 transfers could end up starting this season for the Hilltopper offense.
WKU’s defense will also endure major changes, as the Hilltoppers return as little as 35% of its production from a season ago. Only 2 full-time starters are back in Demarko Williams and Kent Robinson. In fact, nearly 20 transfers are competing for starting or backup spots on this unit. Given all the new pieces, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Hilltopper stop-unit regressed after finishing 62nd in scoring and 97th in total defense in 2024.
That being said, Western Kentucky’s schedule is manageable. It avoids Liberty during the regular season, draws Sam Houston State and FIU at home and gets newcomers Missouri State and Delaware relatively early in the year. Road games at Louisiana Tech and Jacksonville State appear most challenging, especially considering the latter immediately follows a road trip to LSU.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +800
Sonny Cumbie enters his 4th season in Ruston and will have a couple of new coordinators in the mix. Offensive coordinator Tony Franklin returns for his 2nd stint with the program after being in this role from 2010 to 2012, but it has been a few years since he called a college offense. Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Luke Olson joins Louisiana Tech after holding the same position at Jacksonville State last year. The new staff members will be met with a freshman class that ranks 8th in the conference, a transfer portal class that is 10th, and a roster that is barely inside the top 100 in returning production.
The Bulldog offense will be led by Evan Bullock, who threw for 2,104 yards with 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions last year, and a duo of returning running backs in Omiri Wiggins and Amani Givins — which combined for nearly 850 yards and 6 touchdowns. The pass-catching group lost its top 2 assets, but 3 of its top 5 pieces return. Only 2 starters return on the offensive line, but they will be joined by 2 others who were with the program last year as well as a former power conference recruit in Jonathan Denis, who spent time at Miami and Oregon previously.
On the other side of the ball, only 5 of the top 15 players in snaps return from a unit that was top 2 in Conference USA in scoring and total defense. However, Olson will have a few power conference transfers at his disposal and has a track record of producing above-average Group of 5 defenses dating back to his time at Tulsa.
On paper, Louisiana Tech seemingly has one of the harder conference schedules in CUSA, as the Bulldogs will have to play the projected top 2 teams in the conference in Liberty and Western Kentucky, as well as Sam Houston State — which is 5th on the CUSA oddsboard. However, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Bulldogs considering all 3 of those games will be at home, which means the conference road schedule should be manageable with trips to UTEP, Kennesaw State, Delaware and Missouri State.
Looking for a longshot future? How about our ACC best bet listed at +1400 odds!
Jacksonville State Gamecocks +850
One of the bigger stories in the college football offseason was Rich Rodriguez’s return to West Virginia. In his 3 seasons at Jacksonville State, Rich Rod led the Gamecocks to 3 straight 9-win seasons and 2 conference titles while helping navigate their move from FCS to FBS. In his place, Charles Kelly assumes head coaching duties for the first time in this 35-year coaching career after previously being with the program in the late 1990s and more recently serving as the co-defensive coordinator at Auburn in 2024. Alongside him is first-year offensive coordinator Clint Trickett, who served as the passing game coordinator at Georgia Southern, and defensive coordinator Brian Williams — who held the same role at Maryland for the last 3 seasons.
Much like the coaching staff, the roster is completely reshuffled. In fact, the Gamecocks are second-to-last in returning overall production. They will have fewer than 25% of their production back on offense and will have to replace their quarterback, leading-rusher Tre Stewart, leading-receiver Cam Vaughn, and as many as 4 starting offensive linemen. However, projected starting quarterback Gavin Wimsatt provides power conference experience having started for Rutgers, as does running back Cam Cook from TCU. Furthermore, 2 of their top 3 pass-catchers return and will be accompanied by a couple of power conference transfers in Deondre Johnson and Dylan Gentry, in addition to FAU transfer Caleb Coombs.
It’s not much better from a continuity perspective on the defensive side of the ball. Only 2 of Jacksonville State’s top 12 defensive leaders in snaps return from last year, and as many as 10 transfers are competing for playing time – though multiple transfers hail from power conference programs. With a former power conference coordinator leading this unit, the floor may be slightly higher than expected.
Jax State’s conference schedule is like that of Louisiana Tech in that the Gamecocks will have to play Liberty, Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, there won’t be much time to get all their new pieces acclimated to their new roles, as their conference opener is in Week 2 against Liberty. Meanwhile, they draw Western Kentucky in the last week of the regular season, which is probably the worst time to have to play the Hilltoppers — as they will likely have already hit their stride in their new offense under Bowie.
2025 Conference USA Championship best bet: Liberty Flames +120
Like my MAC preview, my best bet to win the CUSA feels boring. However, there’s just too much to like about Liberty, even if the price isn’t very appealing. With Rodriguez off to the Big 12, Liberty will have the best coach in the conference. Vasko should have all the tools to succeed in Chadwell’s offense playing behind an offensive line with 3 returning starters and throwing to a group that returns 5 of its 6 top pass-catchers. However, I am most bullish on Liberty’s defense in relation to what returns in the rest of the conference. There is so much experience and continuity on this defensive unit, particularly in the secondary, headlined by multiple seniors playing in their 4th seasons with the program. After a 2024 season that likely left a sour taste in Liberty’s mouth, look for the Flames to reclaim the top spot in the conference and flirt with another undefeated season thanks to one of, if not the easiest strength of schedule in the FBS.
If you’re looking for options at longer odds, I considered Sam Houston State and UTEP, but ultimately could not get to the window on either team with uncertainties about coaching.
