Sam Avellone
The Mid-American Conference may not be one of the premier conferences in college football from a talent perspective, but it packs a punch from an entertainment perspective – especially during those midweek games late in the season when the weather is freezing. In fact, some would argue that “MAC-tion” produces some of the most unpredictable outcomes and worst beats across the sport, just ask those who laid 3.5 points with Ball State against winless Kent State last year in Week 7 or anyone who bet the Under in Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan in Week 10.
Things will look slightly different in the MAC this year, as UMass returns to the conference as a full member after the Minutemen were previously football-only members from 2012-2015. Conversely, this will be Northern Illinois’ last season in the conference before departing for the Mountain West following this upcoming academic year. Could this be Akron’s final year as a football member of the MAC, too? The Zips are ineligible for the postseason due to poor academics, marking the first time in a decade that a team has been ruled ineligible due a poor multi-year Academic Progress Rate. If the Zips don’t improve their academic standing, there is a chance they could be stripped of their FBS standing in the future. Hopefully that doesn’t happen.
Now that the formalities are out of the way, it’s time to preview the MAC and cap it off with an NCAAF best bet to win the conference.
2025 Mid-American Conference Championship Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Toledo Rockets +220
Ohio Bobcats +340
Buffalo Bulls +550
Miami (OH) Redhawks +600
Northern Illinois Huskies +1200
Bowling Green Falcons +1300
Western Michigan Broncos +1500
Eastern Michigan Eagles +2000
Central Michigan Chippewas +2000
Ball State Cardinals +5000
Massachusetts Minutemen +5500
Kent State Golden Flashes +30000
Akron Zips N/A
2025 MAC Contenders – Will chaos ensue, or will chalk prevail?
Toledo Rockets +220
The Rockets are led by head coach Jason Candle, who has been with the program since 2016. The two-time MAC Coach of the Year has led the Rockets to 2 conference championships and retained all 4 of his coordinators/co-coordinators in the offseason, all of which have been with the program for at least 5 years. Candle brought in the top-rated freshman class in the conference according to 247 Sports, as well as a top 4 transfer portal class to join a roster that is top 40 nationally in overall returning production.
A majority of Toledo’s returning talent is on the offensive side of the ball, where the Rockets bring back about 75% of their production – a top 15 mark nationally. This unit will be led by quarterback Tucker Gleason, who threw for 2,808 yards and 24 touchdowns last year with just 8 interceptions. Gleason can also be effective as a runner, as he accumulated 364 yards and 7 touchdowns with his legs. He will play behind an offensive line that returns 3 starters, all of whom played at least 895 snaps last year, and will be joined by 2 power conference transfers. Replacing a couple of its leading pass-catchers in wide receiver Jerjuan Newton and tight end Anthony Torres will not be easy for Toledo, but 2nd-leading receiver Junior Vandeross III is back after putting up 957 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Northern Illinois transfer Trayvon Rudolph bolsters the depth of this group. In the backfield, leading rusher Connor Walendzak returns, though Kentucky transfer Chip Traynum will likely eat into his workload – as could NC A&T transfer Kenji Christian.
On the other side of the ball, the Rockets return greater than 50% of their production after finishing in the top 5 in the MAC in scoring and total defense. Three of their top 5 tacklers are gone, but the secondary should be strong once again with Braden Awls, Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and Avery Smith patrolling the defensive backfield. Multiple backups from last year will step into bigger roles this season, while UMass transfer Louce Julien and USF transfer Langston Long will be asked to step into major roles in the front 7.
Despite Toledo’s tendency to lose games it should win under Candle’s tutelage, the Rockets’ conference schedule is favorable on paper. They won’t have to travel on the road in consecutive weeks at any point, and they avoid having to play Ohio and Buffalo – who are 2nd and 3rd on the conference oddsboard. Toledo’s most difficult game figures to be its road trip to Oxford to play the Redhawks, but the Rockets luck out from a situational standpoint in that matchup considering it is sandwiched in between Miami’s road trips to the aforementioned Ohio and Buffalo.
Check out our college football national championship best bets, including a +4000 longshot!
Ohio Bobcats +340
The Bobcats surprised many last year. Because their roster was ravaged by graduation and the transfer portal, headlined by quarterback Kurtis Rourke’s move to Indiana, the Bobcats were expected to take a massive step backwards after winning 10 games in both 2022 and 2023. However, coach Tim Albin worked his magic and guided this program to not only its 3rd appearance in the MAC Championship Game since 2016, but its first conference title since the 1960s. Unfortunately for the Bobcats, Albin made the move to Charlotte to take over as the head coach for the 49ers. Brian Smith steps into his role after being an associate head coach in 2023 and offensive coordinator in 2024. He retained Ohio’s defensive coordinator and promoted Scott Isphording, who has been with the program for 10+ years, to offensive coordinator.
Ohio’s staff is not the only part of the program facing major changes. The Bobcats are outside the top 90 nationally in returning production, and I am pessimistic about the incoming talent given the fact that Ohio’s freshman class ranks in the bottom 3 in the conference while its transfer portal class ranks in the bottom 4.
The Bobcats have fewer than 60% of its offensive production back in Athens after finishing top 2 in the MAC in scoring and total offense a season ago. The return of quarterback Parker Navarro provides some stability on this side of the ball as a passer and a runner after he tallied more than 2,400 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards last year, though he often put the ball in harm’s way – leading the MAC in interceptions and turnover-worthy throws, while fumbling the ball 10 times.
This time around, Navarro and the Bobcats will be without their 2 most dynamic playmakers, as running back Anthony Tyus III and wide receiver Coleman Owen have moved on to the NFL. The pass-catching group returns most of its pieces that were behind Owen, but none of them were remotely close to his production level. Meanwhile, running back Sieh Bangura returns to the program after a short stint at Minnesota, which should help fill the void left by Tyus. He will run behind an offensive line that lost its 2 best pieces, though there is some optimism for this group with the return of starter Davion Weatherspoon, Kam Wright ascending into a starting role, and Shedrick Rhodes Jr. transferring back into the program after a short stint at Rutgers.
The bigger concerns are on the defensive side of the ball, where Ohio returns fewer than 40% of its production from a unit that led the MAC in scoring and total defense in conference play. The Bobcats lost their top 4 tacklers in the offseason, most notably Bradley Weaver and Marcel Walker, who had 23 combined TFL and 14.5 sacks. They also lost Bralen Henderson to Missouri and Cam Rice to Maryland, while multiple other pieces on the 2-deep followed Albin to Charlotte.
Ohio’s conference schedule is manageable if the Bobcats can manage all the new faces on the staff and roster. They avoid Toledo, get Miami at home following a bye, and don’t have to travel for back-to-back road games at any point of the season. However, it’s hard to imagine the Bobcats will have a chance to appropriately ease their new pieces into action given their rigorous non-conference schedule in the first 3 weeks of the season.
Buffalo Bulls +500
Pete Lembo and his staff enter their 2nd season in Buffalo after finishing 9-4 overall and 6-2 in conference play. They brought in the #7 freshman class in the MAC, but their transfer portal class ranks at the bottom of the conference and near the bottom nationally. These marks aren’t very inspiring, but Lembo will have nearly 75% of his defensive production back in Buffalo this season. While standout linebacker Shaun Dolac is now with the Los Angeles Rams after accounting for 168 combined tackles, 19 TFL, 6.5 sacks, and 5 interceptions, the Bulls will have 12 of their top 15 tacklers back in the mix this year, headlined by Kobe Stewart and Dion Crawford – who combined for 27 TFL and 18 sacks in 2024. Returning production only goes so far, though. The Bulls will have to improve statistically if they want a chance to play for a conference title, as they finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring and total defense last year.
There is not quite as much returning production on the offensive side of the ball for Buffalo. The Bulls return 3 starters on the offensive line, as well as leading rusher Al-Jay Henderson (1,078 yards, 9 TD) and leading receiver Victor Snow (651 yards, 6 TD), but that’s about where it ends for this unit. The depth pieces at running back and wide receiver lack experience, which may make things difficult on transfer quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson – who was with Kansas State last year after previously starting for UConn and throwing for 2,075 yards and 12 TD in 10 games for the Huskies in 2023.
Fortunately for the Bulls, their schedule is favorable, especially in conference. They will avoid Toledo, and they draw Miami and Ohio at home in the final 2 weeks of the season – allowing the new faces to get acclimated to the system. In fact, Buffalo’s first 4 conference games are against Kent State, Eastern Michigan, UMass, and Akron, all of which are very winnable – especially if its defense improves with so many pieces returning outside of Dolac.
We’re locked in on this Big 12 Championship best bet at +800 odds
Miami (OH) Redhawks +600
There is ample continuity on Miami’s coaching staff, as head coach Chuck Martin has been in the role since 2014. Offensive coordinator Pat Welsh and defensive coordinator Brechin have been in their roles 4 years or less, but they both have been with the program since Martin took over and have each held multiple roles on the staff. Unlike the coaching staff, there is not much continuity on the roster. In fact, the Redhawks rank 129th in overall returning production, which means the 4th-ranked freshman class in the MAC and the 2nd-best transfer portal class will be relied upon early and often.
Only 15% of Miami’s offensive production returns to Oxford this season, which ranks dead-last nationally. Quarterback Dequan Finn returns to the MAC after transferring from Toledo to Baylor for a year and will take over for one of the better quarterbacks in program history in Brett Gabbert, but what is there around him? None of Miami’s projected starting offensive linemen played more than 300 snaps last year. Furthermore, the Redhawks will have to replace their top 2 running backs and top 4 pass-catchers. As many as 5 transfers will compete for starting roles out wide. The new receiver room certainly has talent given the fact that all 5 transfers were with power conference schools (I’m including Notre Dame in this grouping) last year, but none of them has much playing experience.
The Redhawks are better off defensively with just over half of their production back after finishing 2nd in the conference in scoring and total defense, including 4 of their top 8 tacklers. However, leading tackler Matthew Salopek is gone, as are their 3 top pass rushers.
Of the top 4 teams on the MAC oddsboard, Miami may have the most difficult road to what would be a third-consecutive conference championship appearance. The Redhawks have to play Toledo, Ohio, and Buffalo this season, each of whom are listed at the top of the conference oddsboard. To make matters worse, Miami will have to play them in 3 consecutive weeks in November with 2 of them on the road.
2025 MAC Championship best bet: Toledo Rockets +220
Betting the favorite in a conference as volatile as the MAC is unsettling, but the Rockets seem to have a perfect fusion of staff continuity, roster continuity, and schedule favorability heading into the 2025 college football season. Gleason was highly productive as Toledo’s starting quarterback last year, and he will have a couple of talented receivers at his disposal in Vandeross and Rudolph despite the departures of Newton and Torres. Meanwhile, the Rockets ground game should be a force per MAC standards with Traynum and Christian joining Walendzak in the backfield.
Toledo’s defense, particularly on the front 7, will face its fair share of challenges replacing highly-productive pieces like Daniel Bolden, Jackson Barrow, D’Andre Ragin, Anthony Dunn Jr., Cavon Butler, and Darius Alexander. However, the Rockets secondary should be a strength with as many as 4 of the top 20 defensive backs in the MAC returning per PFF’s coverage grades. There’s enough here to get excited about Toledo’s ceiling this year. At better than 2/1 to win the MAC, the price feels fair and bettable. In fact, given Toledo’s relatively soft non-conference schedule compared to the other teams at the top of the MAC oddsboard, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Rockets pushed for the Group of 5 spot in the College Football Playoff race.
