Ricky Dimon
We are only a few weeks away from the 2025 NFL regular season. Week 1 can’t come soon enough, but before it does we have time to preview all of the upcoming action and make our predictions and best bets. Pickswise’s extensive football coverage continues with our favorite win-total picks. Which teams will exceed expectations and which ones will underwhelm? Let’s dive in.
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
Arizona Cardinals Over 8.5 wins (-125)
To say that the Cardinals are trending in the right direction would be an understatement. After going 4-13 record in 2023, they compiled an 8-9 record last season. Asking head coach Jonathan Gannon’s club to improve by just 1 game from the 2024 campaign should not be too much. Kyler Murray has plenty of weapons with which to work, among them Marvin Harrison Jr., Zay Jones and James Conner. The defense is nothing special, but Calais Campbell brings valuable veteran leadership. There is also no reason why Arizona can’t rack up plenty of victories in its own division. Every other team in the NFC West has more questions than answers, either related to injuries or roster turnover…or both.
Indianapolis Colts Under 7.5 wins (-110)
It’s hard to have any confidence in a team when the quarterback depth chart begins with Daniel Jones and continues with Anthony Richardson. That’s right; Jones was officially named the team’s starter on Tuesday. That’s bad news for Richardson and even worse news for Colts fans. Jonathan Taylor is an above-average running back, but it hardly matters who is toting the rock when Jones is under center. The defensive front is the strength of this Indianapolis team, but it remains to be seen if the linebackers and the secondary can hold up their end of the bargain. Playing in the AFC South helps, but the Houston Texans can sweep the Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars may be able to do the same. Even Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans might be able to beat Indy at home.
Atlanta Falcons Over 7.5 wins (-140)
The Falcons haven’t made the playoffs since 2017 and they have a young, unproven quarterback under center. Understandably, expectations – at least when it comes to the sportsbooks – are low. However, this team can be pretty good. No, Atlanta is not going to be a contender. But you don’t have to be that good to surpass a win quota of 7.5; heck, you only have to be mediocre. There is no reason why head coach Raheem Morris’ squad can’t do it. Michael Penix Jr. showed promising signs in his limited work last season and has every reason to success with weapons like Bijan Robinson and Drake London around him. The defense – and specifically the pass rush – should be much improved with Leonard Floyd plus first-round draft picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. An upgrade at coordinator from Jimmy Lake to Jeff Ulbrich will also help.
Pittsburgh Steelers Under 9.5 wins (-155)
No matter who is on his roster, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin always seems to finish no worse than .500. The Steelers have done so 21 straight years, 18 of them under Tomlin. Fortunately for bettors, their 2025 win total is set at 9.5 — so they can compile a winning record and the Under can still cash. This may be when the streak ends – and even if it does continue, I doubt it will be with more than 1 game to spare. Folks, Aaron Rodgers is 41 years old. He has not been very good since 2021 – that’s 4 years ago, for those counting. There is no reason to think he will suddenly turn back into prime Rodgers, especially considering that his supporting cast on offense is unspectacular. D.K. Metcalf will help, but George Pickens and Najee Harris are gone. T.J. Watt is obviously a great piece on defense, but all in all this is a mediocre roster at best. I don’t think even Tomlin can save it.
