Ricky Dimon

This contest in Cleveland marks an intriguing contrast in styles. Alabama ranks first nationally in pace of play (78.8 possessions per game); Saint Mary’s is No. 358 out of 364 teams in pace (65.6 possessions). Which team will dictate how this showdown is played? Well, normally the superior side is able to control things – and that would be ‘Bama. If the Crimson Tide are able to run their offense at anything close to their normal tempo, I expect them to turn this into a relatively high-scoring affair (which the Gaels certainly don’t want) and win by at least 7 points. The Tide kind of sleepwalked past Robert Morris on Friday, but that only means they should wake up and turn in a more convincing performance in round 2. Grant Nelson was able to play in the tournament opener, which was encouraging – and surprising. The star forward logged just 7 minutes off the bench, though, so he should still be well rested and presumably closer to 100 percent than he was earlier this week. Saint Mary’s has scored in the 50s in its last 2 outings dating back to the West Coast Conference Tournament; that’s not going to cut it against Alabama. 

The #10 New Mexico Lobos looked very good in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday. In fact, they never trailed Marquette by more than 3 at any point of the game, scoring 1.1 points per possession. Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph led the way with 40 combined points, while Tru Washington and CJ Noland added another 23 combined. With the win, the Lobos earned a date with the #2 Michigan State Spartans on Sunday. The Spartans took care of business against Bryant, but the Bulldogs hung around for a while before the Spartans pulled away late. 

This New Mexico squad has plenty of size and experience to hang with Michigan State, as shown by regular season wins over UCLA and USC at neutral sites. The Lobos have been excellent defensively of late, ranking top 20 in adjusted efficiency per Bart Torvik and in the 98th percentile in defensive rating over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics). They excel at getting into the passing lanes and forcing turnovers, boasting a top 25 forced turnover rate in the last month. Moreover, they are one of the nation’s best at limiting offensive rebounds and second-chance opportunities, which is critical for this matchup with Michigan State – who is very good on the offensive boards. For reference, New Mexico is 19th in opposing offensive rebounding rate this season, with top 40 marks in opposing second-chance opportunities and conversion percentage (Haslametrics). 

Michigan State is considered the better team in this matchup, but I worry about the inexperience in the Spartan back court with Jeremy Fears and Jase Richardson against New Mexico’s long perimeter defenders. I wouldn’t be surprised to see ample turnovers against this opportunistic defense. That in combination with an unreliable perimeter offense has me bearish on Sparty in this specific matchup, so I am taking the points with New Mexico. 

New Mexico vs Michigan State prediction: New Mexico +7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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North Carolina looked like the North Carolina of old while humiliating San Diego State in the First Four. Then the Tar Heels ran into Ole Miss in the first round and looked like the Tar Heels of 2024-25. The Rebels jumped all over the Heels right from the tip and then held on down the stretch for a big SEC-over-ACC victory. Now the Rebs get to face an Iowa State squad that will be without second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert for the entire tournament. Unsurprisingly, that wasn’t a problem against Lipscomb – but Ole Miss is an entirely different proposition. When you are less than 100 percent when going up against an opponent from the SEC, bad things tend to happen. Ole Miss is among the most experienced teams in the land and don’t be shocked if that helps them to an outright win and a spot in the Sweet 16.