Sam Avellone
The SEC is a very polarizing conference in the landscape of college football. Whether you are an SEC apologist or an SEC critic, one thing is constant: this conference is always going to be in the mix, even in this new NIL and transfer portal era. Once again in 2025, the SEC is loaded with elite talent from top to bottom, and oddsmakers project nearly a dozen teams from this conference to have a legitimate chance to be crowned national champions. With ample turnover at key positions for a majority of the conference’s premier programs, the race for the 2025 SEC title could be one of the most compelling and intriguing in recent memory. Let’s take a deeper look into the 2025 Southeastern Conference and lock in a couple of NCAAF best bets while we’re at it.
2025 SEC Championship Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. As always, make sure to shop around for the best price, especially in the futures market.
- Texas Longhorns +280
- Georgia Bulldogs +280
- Alabama Crimson Tide +480
- LSU Tigers +700
- Texas A&M Aggies +1500
- Florida Gators +1800
- Ole Miss Rebels +1900
- Auburn Tigers +2100
- Oklahoma Sooners +2300
- Tennessee Volunteers +3100
- South Carolina Gamecocks +3200
- Missouri Tigers +7500
- Arkansas Razorbacks +15000
- Kentucky Wildcats, Vanderbilt Commodores, Mississippi State Bulldogs +30000
Now you can bet any of our SEC college football predictions at FanDuel Sportsbook, which has a great new-customer offer to take advantage of. If you sign up for FanDuel right now, you earn a welcome bonus worth up to $150 if your first $5 bet wins! Use this link 🔗 to join FanDuel right now and learn more.
2025 SEC Contenders – Who will win the SEC?
Texas Longhorns +280
The Longhorns hit the ground running in their first season in the SEC, reaching the conference title game against Georgia as well as the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. As the favorite heading into the 2025 season, oddsmakers expect the ‘Horns to be squarely in the mix again this year. Steve Sarkisian is back for his 5th season in Austin, and he retained both of his coordinators, but the roster continuity is not like it was last year. While Texas boasts the top freshman recruiting class and a top 25 transfer portal class per 247 Sports, only 40% of its offensive production returns, and a few key cogs on the defense moved on to the NFL.
Starting on the offensive side, the Longhorns will have to replace 4 starting offensive linemen from a unit that was graded as the best pass-blocking line in the country by PFF, their 3 top pass-catchers and their starting quarterback. Arch Manning steps into a full-time starting role under center with incredibly lofty expectations, but should benefit from the aid of a strong running back room with Quintrevion Wisner and CJ Baxter. Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore Jr. will lead the receiver corps after combining for 900+ yards and 9 touchdowns, while Stanford transfer WR Emmett Mosley V and Cal transfer TE Jack Endries should supplement Wingo and Moore nicely, in addition to 2 of the top 10 wide receivers in the 2025 freshman class – Kaliq Lockett and Jamie French.
On the other side of the ball, the Longhorns are better off from a continuity perspective than they are offensively, returning more than 60% of their defensive production – a top-35 mark nationally. Texas will have one of the best linebacker groups in the country with Anthony Hill Jr., Liona Lefau and Trey Moore, while newcomer Brad Spence provides some depth after tallying 65 tackles, 6 TFL and 4.5 sacks at Arkansas last year. The secondary should be strong once again with Jaylon Guildbeau, Malik Muhammed and Michael Taafee back in the mix alongside 2 five-star freshmen. However, the defensive line is the biggest question mark on this side of the ball with Alfred Collins, Vernon Broughton and Bill Norton off to the NFL. A handful of transfers will be asked to fill in the gaps alongside 5-star freshman Justus Terry and sophomore Alex January.
With a top-10 strength of schedule, Texas’ road back to the SEC Championship won’t be easy. The Longhorns start the year off with a true road game in Columbus against the reigning national champion Ohio State Buckeyes, a matchup that may have playoff implications despite being the first of the season. After a few non-conference tune-up games at home against Group of 5 programs, the Longhorns will hit the road for 4 straight games in October, starting with a trip to the Swamp to play Florida.
The Red River Rivalry game against Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl immediately follows their game against the Gators, and then they close out October with back-to-back road games at Kentucky and Mississippi State. While trips to Lexington and Starkville are not daunting on the surface, playing in 4 straight weeks without a home game is a challenge for any college football program. Texas will benefit from playing 3 of its final 4 games at home, but their lone November road trip will be to Athens to play the Georgia Bulldogs in a revenge spot after losing twice to them last year, and the season finale against Texas A&M won’t be easy even if it is being played in Austin.
Georgia Bulldogs +280
Like Sarkisian at Texas, Kirby Smart retained his coordinators in the offseason, while bringing in a top-3 freshman class and a top-25 transfer portal class. Also like Texas, Georgia will have to replace a ton on both sides of the ball and then some, as the Bulldogs are outside the top 90 in overall returning production. On the offensive side, just 42% of last year’s production returns. Gunnar Stockton steps in as the starting quarterback in place of Carson Beck, and he will play behind an offensive line that replaces its top 4 pieces, albeit mostly with guys that were on the depth chart last year and have at least some experience in the system.
Out wide, the Bulldogs will have to replace its top 2 pass-catchers in Arian Smith and Dominic Lovett. Dillon Bell returns after posting 466 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Colbie Young and Landon Humphreys step into bigger roles alongside USC transfer Zachariah Branch and Texas A&M transfer Noah Thomas. Of all the offensive position groups, running back seems to be the one with the highest floor. Trevor Etienne is off to the NFL, but Nate Frazier (Georgia’s leading rusher last year) returns with Roderick Robinson and Cash Jones, and Illinois transfer Josh McCray will likely receive plenty of opportunities after rushing for more than 600 yards with 10 touchdowns last season.
Georgia was just barely in the top 30 in scoring defense and total defense last year, which is good, but not quite up to the standard we are used to seeing from Smart’s system. When you dig deeper into the numbers, you will see the Bulldogs were actually outside the top 35 against the rush and the pass. Although this unit will be supremely talented once again, maintaining those marks could be challenging this year with just 51% of its defensive production returning to Athens. Key contributors like Malaki Starks, Jalon Walker, Smael Mondon Jr., Chaz Chambliss, Mykel Williams, Warren Brinson and Nazir Stackhouse were 7 of Georgia’s top 10 defenders per PFF and all of them now play in the NFL. That means Christen Miller, KJ Bolden, Xzavier McLeod, and CJ Allen will step into leadership roles, and a handful of transfers from lesser programs will be relied upon to help replace NFL talent.
The Bulldogs won’t have to travel for true road games in back-to-back weeks at any point this season, but that doesn’t mean their schedule is easy. It’s a top-10 strength of schedule, as they have to play at Tennessee and Auburn, host Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas, and endure neutral-site games against rivals Florida and Georgia Tech. From a pure talent perspective, Georgia should be competitive in every single game, but lacking continuity at key positions on both sides of the ball with this difficult a schedule could limit its upside.
Alabama Crimson Tide +480
If you read my National Championship best bets article, you know where I stand on the Crimson Tide this season. If you haven’t read it yet, well then here comes a spoiler: I am a believer in this squad. Kalen DeBoer is a winner, and the addition of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should help that unit be a bit more consistent than it was last year. Like Texas and Georgia, Alabama will have a new quarterback, presumably Ty Simpson. The former 5-star recruit and top-5 quarterback in the 2022 class has been patiently awaiting his chance to lead this offense and should be commended for sticking around rather than transferring. In a limited sample size, Simpson has shown an ability to command the offense, make precise throws and escape the pocket to gain chunk yards as a runner.
Unlike Texas and Georgia, Alabama retains a few of its best offensive line pieces from a season ago. Kadyn Proctor, Parker Brailsford, and Jaeden Roberts should provide this unit with a high floor. Moreover, the Tide will likely have one of the best receiving corps in the country with the return of Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard and the addition of Isaiah Horton through the portal. The biggest question mark outside of the quarterback position is the running back group, but Jam Miller is a solid SEC back that can catch the ball out of the backfield, while Richard Young and Daniel Hill provide talented depth as top 10 running backs in their respective recruiting classes.
Defensively, Alabama ranks in the top 15 in returning production. As many as 13 players who played at least 200 snaps are back in the mix this year, highlighted by LT Overton, Tim Keenan III, Justin Jefferson, Bray Hubbard, and Deontae Lawson. The Crimson Tide’s pass defense will need to improve by limiting big plays over the top and rushing the quarterback more consistently, but this unit was top 10 in ppa and success rate last year and has enough talent to maintain those marks with a year in Kane Wommack’s system on their resumes.
Alabama has a top-10 strength of schedule, which is a common theme at the top of the oddsboard in the SEC, but it feels slightly more manageable than the likes of Texas and Georgia, especially when you consider the Tide’s ample returning production. They start the year with a true road game at Florida State as nearly a 2-touchdown favorite, and they host Wisconsin in Week 3. Those games are interesting on paper from a brand perspective, but this Alabama roster is a couple of tiers above the current version of those programs. The conference schedule poses a number of challenges, which is the norm in this conference, but includes bye weeks prior to the Tide’s road trip to Georgia and their home game against rival LSU. The Tide will avoid Texas and Texas A&M, and they won’t have to play true road games in back-to-back weeks at any point. In fact, 4 of their final 6 games are at home.
LSU Tigers +700
Brian Kelly is back for his 4th season in Baton Rouge, and he retained both of his coordinators in Joe Sloan and Blake Baker. Kelly brings in a top 10 freshman class and the highest-rated transfer portal class to supplement a group that is in the top 25 in overall returning production, but the Tigers will have to replace a decent amount of starters on both sides of the ball.
The offense will be led by Heisman-hopeful Garret Nussmeier, though he will play behind an offensive line that returns just 1 starter in DJ Chester – who was graded as the worst of the 5 starters last year by PFF. In fact, Paul Mubenga is the only other projected starter on this unit that played at least 100 snaps for LSU in 2024. Transfers Braelin Moore (VT) and Josh Thompson (NW) should compete for starting roles after solid performances at their former programs, but the overall chemistry remains to be seen with so many new faces. There are big shoes to fill here, as LSU was top 15 in sacks allowed last year.
With the addition of transfers Nic Anderson and Barion Brown to play alongside Aaron Anderson, LSU’s pass-catching group should be very reliable once again despite having to replace Kyren Lacy, CJ Daniels and Mason Taylor — 3 of its top 4 producers last year. The running back group should be very good as well with Caden Durham and Kaleb Jackson back in the mix alongside 2 highly recruited freshmen.
Defensively, as much as 64% of LSU’s production is back, but only 4 full-time starters return if you include Harold Perkins, whose season ended prematurely due to injury. The influx of new talent via the transfer portal, including Jack Pyburn (FLA) and Patrick Payton (FSU) along with multiple top-200 recruits, provides some promise on this side of the ball. However, this unit as a whole needs to improve dramatically this season in order for the Tigers to have a chance to win the SEC, much less the national title. For reference, LSU’s defense was outside the top 50 in most defensive stat categories again last season, but displayed improvement after a disastrous 2023 season.
LSU’s schedule is not quite as difficult as those of the 3 aforementioned teams, but is still graded in the top 15 in difficulty. The Tigers have to travel to the other Death Valley to play Clemson in Week 1, where there will be no margin for error. They also play Ole Miss and Alabama on the road. Home games against Florida, South Carolina, and Texas A&M will be all but easy, but the Tigers avoid Georgia and Texas and don’t have any true back-to-back road games on their schedule.
2025 SEC Championship winner best bet: Alabama Crimson Tide (+480)
Alabama is my pick to win the College Football Playoff National Championship, so I naturally love its chances to find its way back to the top of the SEC once again. I highlighted my reasons for this pick in my National Championship article, and will run through them for you again here.
The addition of Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator should provide a bit more consistency and upside on this side of the ball. Simpson is a question mark at the quarterback position, but I feel he is plenty capable of leading this offense, as he’s shown flashes of accuracy and underrated athleticism in a limited sample size. His blockers up front appear to make up one of the better offensive lines in the country on paper, and his pass-catching group should be even better with Williams, Bernard, and the newly acquired Horton.
The Crimson Tide defense should be extremely formidable once again after posting top 10 marks in PPA and success rate in Kane Wommack’s first season as Alabama’s coordinator. They will have to replace a few key pieces like Jihaad Campbell, Malachi Moore and Tim Smith, but plenty of high-end talent remains on this side of the ball – specifically Overton, Keenan, and Hubbard.
The price for Alabama to win the SEC (and the National Championship) is very appealing when you consider how much production the Tide returns in relation to teams like Texas and Georgia at the top of the odds board. With bye weeks prior to arguably their 2 biggest games, 4 of their final 6 games at home, and a very manageable group of non-conference opponents, Alabama’s schedule feels somewhat forgiving compared to the Longhorns and the Bulldogs. There’s enough perceived value here for me to jump on board, especially with a coach like DeBoer, who has already led a program with a fraction of Alabama’s football resources to the title game recently.
2025 SEC Championship winner longshot pick: South Carolina Gamecocks (+3200)
The Gamecocks fell just short of the College Football Playoff last year, and while it won’t be easy to improve upon or even match their 9-3 regular season record last year, they feel like the best value as a longshot to win the SEC when assessing the rest of the teams longer than +2000 in this conference.
South Carolina has arguably 2 of the 10 best players in the country in quarterback LaNorris Sellers and defensive end Dylan Stewart, but there certainly are plenty of question marks surrounding them. If the Gamecocks were to push for an SEC Championship, they will likely have to be led by their offense, which is a dramatic shift from last season.
South Carolina had one of the best defenses in the country in 2024, but most of their key pieces like Kyle Kennard, Nick Emmanwori, TJ Sanders, and Tonka Hemingway moved on to the NFL. That being said, South Carolina’s secondary should remain very strong this year with Jalon Kilgore, Judge Collier, and DQ Smith back in the mix, in addition to NC State transfer Brandon Cisse. The front 7 leaves a bit to be desired from an experience and production standpoint, but Bryan Thomas Jr. should excel as a pass rusher with a full allotment of playing time opposite of Stewart after posting 7 TFL and 4.5 sacks as Kennard’s back up, and there is plenty of upside on the interior defensive line and at the linebacker position with multiple 4-star recruits stepping into bigger roles this year.
South Carolina may not be a top-5 defense again this year, but top 25 is within the realm of possibilities, especially under the tutelage of coordinator Clayton White. Since White’s arrival in Columbia in 2021, the Gamecocks have forced the most turnovers in the SEC (88).
On the offensive side, Sellers may need to make his best Cam Newton impression. The offensive line play may be average at best, but Sellers can make something out of nothing with his elite ability to break tackles and improvise on the run. With wide receiver Nyck Harbor dropping track and focusing solely on football, in addition to the return of Mazeo Bennett and Jared Brown, the South Carolina receiving group feels like it has a much higher floor than it did last year – and that’s not even including Vandrevius Jacobs, whom coaches expect to take the next step after a full season with the program following his transfer from Florida State.
The running back room is a question mark with Raheim Sanders off to the NFL and Rahsul Faison still awaiting his eligibility ruling from the NCAA, but Oscar Adaway returns, and Shane Beamer brought in Isaiah Augustave from Colorado late in the spring to provide depth due to the uncertainty with Faison. In any case, Sellers will be a key piece of the rushing attack after accumulating 674 yards and 7 touchdowns as a runner last year.
Schedule-wise, it’s tough for South Carolina, but not completely unmanageable with the current roster construction. The Gamecocks won’t have to play on the road in back-to-back weeks at any point this season, and get Alabama at home. Their fate will likely be decided by their road games at LSU, Ole Miss and Texas A&M, but they will benefit from byes immediately before traveling to Baton Rouge and College Station.
South Carolina should be favored to start the year 5-0 before heading to LSU in a revenge spot after the Tigers stole the game in Columbia last season. If the Gamecocks manage a win in Baton Rouge, they would be squarely in the mix to make the SEC Championship, even if they drop as many as 2 games from Week 8 on. A lot has to go right for the Gamecocks to be in position to play for a conference championship in Atlanta, but the number appropriately reflects that. It’s at least worth a sprinkle if you’re looking for a longshot with quarterback stability to win this conference.
