Early starters may get the best of the conditions in round 1 of the PGA Championship at Aronimink, and 3 players are nominated as to be top of the leaderboard after their opening 18 holes of the year’s 2nd Major. Let’s break down our PGA Championship first-round leader picks and FRL predictions.
PGA Championship First Round Leader best bet: Nicolai Hojgaard (+5600)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The weather forecast for the first round of the PGA Championship is unsettled, with some short showers and spells of moderate breeze on the horizon, but both the morning and afternoon waves may end up with similar conditions.
The early starters may get an edge, though, as the chance to approach soft, receptive greens could be the key to setting the clubhouse lead on Thursday. Fresh dancefloors can make the difference for the morning groups, as Aronimink’s massively undulating greens could become a nightmare as they firm up during the day.
Morning moisture will allow the likes of Nicolai Hojgaard, who tees off at 7:07 am ET, to hold their approaches closer to these tough targets. The Aronimink greens are fairly large, but finding the right sections of them is essential, as three-putts will be commonplace from long distances given the severity of the slopes.
Long driving is a significant asset at Aronimink – the powerhouses can carry their ball over most of the fairway bunkers – and Hojgaard possesses enormous punch off the tee. He has been in fine form this season, with 4th place in the Dubai Desert Classic followed by 3rd in Phoenix, 6th in the Cognizant Classic, 2nd in Houston and 2nd in the Truist Championship on Sunday.
Hojgaard has the potential to shoot something in the mid-60s, which may be enough to be looking down on the rest of the field after round one.
Find out our 2026 PGA Championship predictions, featuring a +1550 best bet and a longshot at +6000!
PGA Championship First Round Leader prediction: Joaquin Niemann (+7000)
Odds available at bet365 and FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Another quality player going off at big odds in the first-round leader market is Joaquin Niemann, who has a 7:12 am ET tee-time from which to make merry.
Niemann, who finished 8th in last year’s PGA Championship, has LIV Golf form figures of 4-12-20-8 from the last 4 tournaments and he looked in terrific form when signing off with a Sunday 65 in LIV Virginia.
The Chilean’s PGA Tour breakthrough came relatively close to Pennsylvania, in the neighbouring state of West Virginia, in the 2019 Greenbrier. He won 5 LIV titles in a magnificent 2025 campaign and may be about to hit those heights again.
Lock in our expert’s best PGA Championship prop bets, featuring Top LIV Golfer, Top Canadian, Top Englishman and more!
PGA Championship FRL pick: Min Woo Lee (+6000)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
A closing 64 in the Truist Championship on Sunday has sent Min Woo Lee to Pennsylvania in high spirits, and the swashbuckling Australian could be about to make an impact at an Aronimink venue which sets up extremely well for him.
Long driving and a sharp short-game seems to be the ticket to success at Aronimink – both qualities that Lee has in spades. Teeing off at 7:56 am ET, Lee is an explosive talent well capable of delivering an 18-hole burst of birdies which nobody else in the field can match.
Lee, who fired a 62 in The American Express in January and a 63 in the Houston Open in March, is known as Dr Chipinski – and that ability to scramble well will count for so much around these devilish dancefloors.
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