The 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off on Thursday, June 11, meaning we are nearly six months away from the world’s biggest sporting event getting underway. This is the 23rd edition of the tournament, and it will be hosted in North America, with games being played in Canada, Mexico and the United States. This marks the first time the tournament will be played in North America since the USA hosted the event in 1994, which ended with Brazil hoisting the FIFA World Cup Trophy.
With plenty to play for, I’ll break down the latest 2026 FIFA World Cup odds, the current countries in every group and two teams I believe can win it all.
2026 FIFA World Cup Group Draw Results
The official draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup took place in Washington D.C. on December 5, 2025, and it was quite the affair if you missed it! There were performances by Andrea Bocelli, Village People and Robbie Williams, and Aaron Judge, Tom Brady, and Shaquille O’Neal were all involved. Donald Trump was also in attendance, receiving the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize.
This tournament marks a new edition of the FIFA World Cup because there will be 48 countries in attendance instead of the typical 32. At the end of the day, this is how each group shaped up:
Group A:
- Mexico
- South Africa
- Korea Republic
- UEFA Playoff D (Denmark, North Macedonia, Czech Republic or Republic of Ireland)
Group B:
- Canada
- UEFA Playoff A (Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina)
- Qatar
- Switzerland
Group C:
- Brazil
- Morocco
- Haiti
- Scotland
Group D:
- United States
- Paraguay
- Australia
- UEFA Playoff C (Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia or Kosovo)
Group E:
- Germany
- Curaçao
- Côte d’Ivoire
- Ecuador
Group F:
- Netherlands
- Japan
- UEFA Playoff B (Ukraine, Sweden, Poland or Albania)
- Tunisia
Group G:
- Belgium
- Egypt
- IR Iran
- New Zealand
Group H:
- Spain
- Cabo Verde
- Saudi Arabia
- Uruguay
Group I:
- France
- Senegal
- FIFA Playoff Tournament 2 (Iraq, Bolivia or Suriname)
- Norway
Group J:
- Argentina
- Algeria
- Austria
- Jordan
Group K:
- Portugal
- FIFA Playoff Tournament 1 (DR Congo, Jamaica or New Caledonia)
- Uzbekistan
- Colombia
Group L:
- England
- Croatia
- Ghana
- Panama
As you can see, six spots still need to be filled, and we won’t know all 48 teams until March 2026. Now, let’s get into the countries with the shortest odds to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
2026 FIFA World Cup Odds
Although we have an additional 16 teams at the World Cup, the countries with the best chance to win more or less remain the same. Here are 16 countries with the shortest odds to win it all at bet365 Sportsbook:
- Spain (+450)
- England (+550)
- France (+800)
- Brazil (+800)
- Argentina (+800)
- Portugal (+1100)
- Germany (+1200)
- Netherlands (+2000)
- Norway (+2500)
- Italy (+3300)
- Belgium (+3300)
- Colombia (+5000)
- Uruguay (+6600)
- Mexico (+6600)
- United States (+8000)
- Morocco (+8000)
It’s no surprise that Spain (+450) sits atop this list after winning the 2024 UEFA European Championship, and the country they beat in the Euro Final, England (+550), is right behind them. Meanwhile, Argentina (+800) will try to win two World Cups in a row after capturing the 2022 trophy, when they beat the French (+800) in Qatar. The World Cup odds really drop off after Germany (+1200), and you won’t find any of the host nations until Mexico (+6600) and the United States (+8000) appear. The most interesting line in this list is Italy (+3300) because they haven’t even qualified for the World Cup yet and will be playing in a European playoff!
Now, if you’re unfamiliar with the format of the World Cup, here’s how we get to the knockout stage:
- Each team will play three group stage matches against the other countries in their group
- Teams receive 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a loss
- The top 2 teams in each group, along with the 8 best third-place teams, will advance to a newly expanded Round of 32
From there, it will be win or go home, so you won’t have to worry about any games ending in a tie after the group stage! If two countries are tied after 90 minutes of regulation, the game will enter extra time, which is two 15-minute halves, and if they’re still tied after 30 minutes, the game will be decided via penalty kicks. Now that you know how the tournament works, let’s get into my 2026 FIFA World Cup predictions.
2026 FIFA World Cup Predictions and Best Bet: Spain (+450)
I know, I know, my best bet is to pick the country with the shortest odds. While it’s not an exciting prediction for my FIFA World Cup best bet, it’s the best option. When looking at the bracket, I expect Spain to sit atop Group H after the group stage. This will pit them against the second-place squad in Group J in the Round of 32 (I expect that will be Austria). Then, I have them facing Colombia in the Round of 16 and the USA in the quarterfinals before a Euro Final rematch against France in the semifinals.
The other top teams on this side of the bracket will be Germany or Ecuador (1st in Group E), the United States or Turkey (1st in Group D), the Netherlands (1st in Group F), Belgium or Egypt (1st in Group G) and France (1st in Group I). Although there are strong countries on that list, they’d likely avoid having to play England, Brazil, Argentina or Portugal until the World Cup Final and wouldn’t face France until the semifinal. So, their path is relatively easy if they take care of business in the group stage and there aren’t any major upsets in the Groups I outlined on this side of the bracket.
Now that I’ve outlined the path, I’ll explain why I absolutely love the Spaniards to win their second FIFA World Cup. First off, they will enter this tournament as confident as they’ve ever been because they won the 2024 Euro and are #1 in the FIFA world rankings. Their midfield is absolutely loaded, as they boast the likes of Pedri (FC Barcelona), Martin Zubimendi (Arsenal), Fabián Ruiz (Paris Saint-Germain), Rodri (Manchester City) and Dani Olmo (FC Barcelona). Additionally, the young duo of Lamine Yamal (FC Barcelona) and Nico Williams (Athletic Bilbao) will lead this attack, and although Spain has been criticized for not having a true striker, Mikel Oyarzabal registered 6 goals and 3 assists in just 6 starts during the World Cup Qualifying stage. Finally, Spain’s defense can’t be ignored either; they allowed just 2 goals in 6 qualifying matches, and they both came against Turkey in their final game, where there was nothing on the line for the Spaniards. The backline will likely be led by Robin Le Normand (Atletico Madrid) and Dean Huijsen (Real Madrid) in the middle, with Marc Cucurella (Chelsea) and Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid) on the outside.
Although they have the shortest odds to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, it’s absolutely deserved, and I predict that manager Luis de la Fuente will bring home his second trophy on the world stage for La Roja.
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2026 FIFA World Cup Picks and Longshot Prediction: Norway (+2500)
For my World Cup longshot pick, I’m going to roll with Norway at 25-1 odds. Although they have longer odds than the teams at the top, I expect many fans will be backing the Norwegians to win the 2026 World Cup in what will be their first appearance at the tournament since 1998. Although they’ve been absent from the past six World Cups, they qualified for the 2026 edition in style. Situated in UEFA Group I, Norway was a perfect 8-0-0, scoring 37 goals and allowing just 5. They sat atop a group that featured Italy, Israel, Estonia and Moldova and were led by star striker Erling Haaland (Manchester City), who finished with 16 goals and 3 assists in qualifying. Although Haaland is the main man for Norway, they have plenty of other talent.
Alexander Sørloth (Atletico Madrid) is Haaland’s partner up top, and Martin Ødegaard (Arsenal) will hold down the midfield and constantly provide chances for Haaland and Sørloth. Additionally, Oscar Bobb (Manchester City), Antonio Nusa (RB Leipzig) and Sander Berge (Fulham) will all play a part in midfield or attack, so there’s no lack of threats for this squad. Now, I’ll admit that their biggest weakness is their back line, but CB Kristoffer Ajer (Brentford), David Møller Wolfe (Wolverhampton Wanderers), Julian Ryerson (Borussia Dortmund) and Torbjørn Heggem (Bologna) all have experience in Europe’s top leagues and were extremely impressive in the World Cup qualifiers. The other big obstacle for Norway is their group, as they’ll have to go up against France and Senegal, but I think they can obtain at least 6 points.
If they finish in second place in Group I (behind France), they’ll go up against the second-place squad from Group E, which will likely be Ecuador or Côte d’Ivoire. I like their chances in that game, and then the Cinderella run would begin. They’d likely have to take down Brazil in the Round of 16, England in the quarterfinals and Argentina in the semifinals before facing Spain, France or Germany in the final. I know, this isn’t the easiest path, but they fell to Spain in a close 1-0 game back in the 2023 Euro qualifiers and have improved immensely since then. They’ve gone 12-1-1 in their last 14 competitive matches, dispatching Italy 7-1 over two legs during that stretch. They’re not favorites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup for a reason, but Norway has the best striker in the world and a team around him that can raise some eyebrows at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Winner Pick: Erling Haaland (+1400), Julian Alvarez (+2200) and Lautaro Martínez (+2700)
My first pick for the Golden Boot goes hand in hand with my Norway prediction, and that is for Erling Haaland to score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The Manchester City striker is a scoring machine, and he currently leads the English Premier League with 17 goals in 16 games this season. He was an absolute beast for Norway in World Cup Qualifying as well, as he recorded 16 goals, and the next highest player recorded just 8 goals. If Norway wants to go far, they’re going to need Haaland to score early and often, and I think he could win the Golden Boot even if the Norwegians don’t advance past the Round of 16. The last 13 winners haven’t scored more than 8 goals, and 10 of the last 13 winners have scored 6 goals or less. Haaland could easily score 6 goals in the group stage alone, so I’ll take my chances backing the Manchester City striker at 14-1.
My second pick for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Golden Boot is a pair of strikers from Argentina: Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martínez. At 22-1 and 27-1 odds, both players offer great odds to not only lead the South American squad in scoring, but they can lead the entire tournament. Although Lionel Messi is the main man on this team (7 goals in 2022), Alvarez recorded 4 goals at the 2022 World Cup and has been playing extremely well at Atletico Madrid this season. He has 7 goals in 17 games in La Liga and will likely be in the starting lineup for an Argentinian squad that won it all in 2022. However, if he doesn’t start, we will see the main man at Inter, Lautaro Martínez, at the front of the attack for Argentina. Martínez has 7 goals in 15 matches in Serie A for Inter this season, and he added 4 goals and 1 assist in Argentina’s final 5 World Cup qualifying contests.
The upside of backing both of these strikers is that Argentina will likely make another run at the World Cup trophy, and I can’t see them losing until the quarterfinals at the earliest. Although Messi will likely be one of the most bet players to win the Golden Boot at +1400 odds, I see much more value backing Alvarez (+2200) or Martínez (+2700).
Do you want to bet on the 2026 FIFA World Cup? If so, head over to BetMGM Sportsbook, where you can wager on a variety of World Cup betting markets.
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