3 Reasons Why The New England Patriots will beat the Chargers

Photo of the pickswise logo
Photo of Alex Alarcon

Alex Alarcon

NFL

Show Bio

Content Manager for Pickswise.com The home of free sports picks and experts best bets.

Of the four divisional games this weekend Vegas has this one as the small spread with the New England Patriots being favored by 4.5 points at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. Should this game even be close? Will the Patriots make it to the AFC Championship game this season? I believe they will and there are three reasons why I believe the New England Patriots will beat the Chargers. Rivers record against the Patriots in New England, Tom Brady and the history of the Patriots in the playoffs in the Brady/Belichick era and finally the home advantage that comes with New England. We’ll begin by looking at how Philip Rivers has fared in New England.

Philip Rivers in New England

Philip Rivers became the quarterback of the San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers at the start of the 2006 season and he has faced the Patriots in New England multiple times and has yet to come away with a win in any of those games. His first game in New England came on September 16th 2007 in which they Chargers lost 14-38 in that game the Chargers had 149 yards passing.

His second chance came on January 20th of 2008 in which the Chargers lost 12-21 and they have 207 passing yards. His third opportunity came on September 18th of 2011 in which the Chargers lost 21-35 and they had 372 passing yards. His most recent trip to New England was on October 29th of 2017 in which the Chargers lost 13-21 and they had 192 passing yards. In those games the Chargers have been outscored 60 points to 115 or roughly 15 to 29. Rivers has also only had one huge statistical game in those games as well in which he threw for over 300 yards the rest have all been around 200. I look for that to continue this weekend. How have the Patriots fared in the playoffs in the Belichick/Brady era? We’ll examine that next.

Patriots in the playoffs in the Belichick/Brady Era

With Bill Belichick as head coach and Tom Brady as the starting quarterback the Patriots have won five Super Bowls and eight AFC Championships. The Patriots have also made it to at least the AFC Championship game in eight consecutive seasons. In 2011 they lost to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, in 2012 they lost the AFC Championship game to the Baltimore Ravens, in 2013 they lost to the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship game, in 2014 they beat the Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl, in 2015 they lost to the Denver Broncos in the AFC championship game, in 2016 they beat the Atlanta Falcons to win the Super Bowl and in 2017 they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. The Patriots have been the best and most consistent team in the AFC in the Belichick/Brady era. They also have home field advantage in this game, but what does that mean?

Patriots at home

The New England Patriots are 8-0 this season at home with wins coming against the Texans, Dolphins, Colts, Chiefs, Packers, Vikings, Bills and Jets. They have outscored their opponents 263 to 133 or roughly 33 to 17 in those games. Not only are they undefeated at home, but they are beating opponents on average by over two touchdowns at home. The Patriots also have not lost a playoff game at home since the 2013 season. To put it lightly they are a dominating team at home and in the playoffs. I also look for that to be key in this game.

Philip Rivers has never won in New England, the New England Patriots have made it to at least the AFC Championship game in eight consecutive seasons and they have not lost at home this season or in the playoffs at home since the 2013 season. However could Rivers get the upset win?

Virginia Bonuses

See All
Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

BetRivers

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Win $200 if Any NBA Team Hits a Three Pointer!

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NBA game

Win $200 in free bets if any team hits a three pointer

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$150

Bet $5 & Win $150 If Your First Moneyline Bet Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on the pre-game Moneyline in any sport

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 if Any NHL Team Scores A Goal

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NHL game

Win $200 in free bets if any teams scores a goal

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Underdog Fantasy

$100

First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply