Thanksgiving in America may be known as a football holiday, but over the last few years, there has been more and more holiday college hoops to consume on Turkey Day. As a college basketball fanatic, I accept the rise in holiday hoops with open arms.
Thursday’s hoops slate is not the biggest, but it’s fairly loaded with name brands and rising stars – highlighted by heavyweight bouts like North Carolina vs. Michigan State, Arkansas vs. Duke, BYU vs. Miami, and TCU vs. Florida. With a good bit of holiday hoops action to choose from, let’s get into my best bets of the day after a very forgettable Wednesday slate before you check out the rest of our NCAAB predictions for today’s action.
CBB Best Bet: Vanderbilt Commodores vs. VCU Rams Over 160.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 163.
Both Vanderbilt and VCU played in lower-scoring games than I expected yesterday, as neither team nor their opponents shot particularly well. For reference, Vanderbilt – a top-35 team when it comes to three-point% – connected on just 9/24 perimeter attempts, while VCU was just 7/23 against South Florida. Vandy’s perimeter shooting percentage wasn’t all that bad yesterday, but it was the first time the Commodores failed to make at least 10 three-point shots this season. Meanwhile, VCU’s 7 threes made was also its lowest output of the season. Maybe it had something to do with the unfamiliar, ballroom setting at the Atlantis Paradise Island Resort, but in any case, I like points today.
Even if these teams aren’t hitting their threes, they’re going to keep firing. Both the Commodores and the Rams are top-40 in three-point rate, taking a perimeter shot on at least 48% of field goal attempts. Like I’ve mentioned previously, those shots don’t even have to go in to be beneficial to over bettors, as long misses help jumpstart fast breaks going the other way, and both of these teams excel at scoring on the break. In fact, Vanderbilt and VCU are both in the 87th percentile or better in fast break points per game, averaging between 16 and 17 points per game in that area. Pace simply shouldn’t be a concern here, as the ‘Dores and Rams are both in or around the top-60 in average possession length and adjusted tempo.
CBB Best Bet: Michigan State Spartans +1.5 over North Carolina Tar Heels (-120)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -1.
When considering the brand names in this game and the narrow point spread slapped on this matchup, North Carolina vs. Michigan State is the game of the day. The two college basketball goliaths come into this matchup with perfect, undefeated records, having each won their respective first-round games in the Fort Myers Tip-Off with relative ease, but it’s Michigan State that I’ve been more impressed with thus far.
The Spartans boast a top-10 defensive efficiency when adjusting for opponents, limit offensive rebounds as well as anyone, and typically play disciplined without fouling. Those are all good traits to have against a Tar Heel squad that can score efficiently, attack the offensive glass, and make a living at the charity stripe. Sparty has showcased those strengths in 2 step-up games thus far against Arkansas and Kentucky, holding both teams to exactly 66 points and fewer than 1 point per possession, and I expect them to flex defensively again here against a North Carolina team without its senior guard and team captain Seth Trimble.
North Carolina is no slouch defensively either, as the Tar Heels have one of the best 2-point defenses in the country, which is crucial against a team like Sparty that lives inside the 3-point line. However, MSU has shown competence from the perimeter in 2 of its last 3 games, which could end up playing a factor today. For what it’s worth, the Spartans knocked down 13 of 28 shots from distance against East Carolina on Tuesday.
Being without Trimble is a big loss for the Tar Heels in this matchup. Sparty has the requisite size to slow down Caleb Wilson, Henri Veesaar, and Luka Bogavac, and they excel at taking away shots at the rim –which is a popular spot for UNC. The Spartans also should be able to control the tempo here, forcing the Heels to execute in the half court more than they really want to. The line has moved toward North Carolina since opening, but I disagree with it. Give me Sparty.
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