Miami vs Texas A&M Picks, Parlay & CFP Prediction

Sam Avellone

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Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Miami Hurricanes +3.5 over Texas A&M Aggies (-122)

Texas A&M’s resume is impressive on the surface, but the Aggies were a bit fortunate with their conference schedule this year. In fact, Texas was the only SEC team the Aggies played that finished with a winning record in conference; they avoided Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss and Oklahoma – the 4 other SEC teams in the College Football Playoff. Make of that what you will, but it’s at least mildly concerning for our preseason future on the Aggies if nothing else.

Despite that future, I’m taking the points with Miami here in what I expect to be a game that comes down to the wire with either team winning by a 3 or fewer points. My biggest concern for Texas A&M when it comes to winning by margin is its awful turnover rate. The Aggies are outside the top 100 in turnover margin, and they gave the ball away an average of 2.3 times in each of their last 3 regular season games – a number that ranks right near the bottom of the FBS. Those turnover woes can be attributed largely to QB Marcel Reed, who has 10 interceptions and 18 turnover-worthy plays this year. In fact, he threw at least 2 interceptions in 3 of his last 4 SEC matchups and has 11 turnover-worthy plays since Week 9. Ranking 5th in havoc generated outside of garbage time since the end of October, the Hurricanes are poised to capitalize on Reed’s errant and ill-advised throws. Miami also excels defensively against mobile quarterbacks, which hampers Reed’s escapability when the pocket collapses.

In addition to having the edge in the turnover department, Miami has one of the most efficient red zone offenses in the country, scoring points in any fashion on more than 92% of red-zone trips. The ‘Canes find the end zone on more than 71% of those trips, good for top-25 nationally. Texas A&M’s offense is 76th and 43rd in those metrics, respectively, while the Aggies are 131st defensively in red-zone scoring.

Check out our full Miami vs Texas A&M prediction

Girard Pringle Jr. (MIA) over 37.5 rushing yards (-114)

This number feels just entirely too low given Miami RB Girard Pringle Jr.’s current form. Pringle has stepped into a much bigger role of late, as he wasn’t really a part of the offense early in the season. In fact, he only appeared in blowouts early on, yet he scored a touchdown in each of his 3 garbage-time appearances on just 10 total carries. His role started to grow once lead back Mark Fletcher Jr. was shelved with a foot injury sustained late in the loss to SMU, and Pringle has since taken that opportunity and run with it – quite literally. He was eased in against Syracuse, but made the most of his 7 carries by churning out 55 yards and his 4th score of the year. The following week, he turned 17 carries into 116 yards against NC State, and those weren’t garbage-time carries by any means considering he received not only the first target but the first rush attempt of the game.

Fletcher returned – admittedly prematurely – for the final 2 regular season games, yet Pringle still was given double-digit carries in each of them. He turned 14 carries into 49 yards against Virginia Tech and 10 carries into 82 yards against Pitt. All together, Pringle ran for 302 yards on 48 carries over the last 4 weeks of the season, good for 75.5 yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry. With Fletcher healthier now, I would expect him to maintain his lead role in the offense, but he’s more of a bruising running back. Pringle accents Fletcher perfectly with his game-breaking speed, and he has been much more efficient with the ball in his hands than fellow backfield member CharMar Brown – who did not surpass 8 carries at any point in November despite Fletcher being out or less than 100% all month. Pringle’s role seems to be defined now, and against a Texas A&M defense that is 58th in yards per carry this season and 111th in PPA per rush allowed since Week 9, he is in good position to surpass this number.

KC Concepcion (TAMU) anytime TD (+105)

Miami’s pass defense grades are excellent. The Hurricanes are top-25 in total passing yards allowed and top-30 in passing yards surrendered per game this season, as well as 22nd in PPA per pass since Week 9. However, they haven’t played many above-average passing attacks. In games against USF and SMU, the 2 best passing offenses on Miami’s schedule, the top opposing wide receivers had massive games. Louisville’s Chris Bell also had an incredible outing (9 rec, 136 yards, 2 TD) in Miami’s 24-21 home loss to the Cardinals, which makes me think KC Concepcion is primed for a big game — even if it’s not the best matchup on paper.

Fellow TAMU WR Mario Craver was all the buzz early in the year, but he has not scored since Week 3. Concepcion has tallied 9 touchdowns, including 4 since Week 8, while leading the team in overall targets and contested targets. Look for him to be Reed’s go-to option in the red zone on Saturday.